See advisory above for watches and warnings.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:46:18 AM PDT by nwctwx
The track should bring it right over central Tx. My forcast is only giving a 20% chance of rain. We’ve been 103 all weekend. We sure need some rain!
It should come in further north of Dolly, with tight model spreadu it looks to be somewhere in between Matagorda to Galveston. It could be a big rainmaker headed west towards the Mexico border though. Almost right over the worst drought areas if lucky.
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TX,S
Yeah, it could be a TS the next time they check the pressures.
My guess is that it will become one. The seawater is sure hot enough and shear isn’t really a big problem.
What’s the drill for the oil rigs in a situation like this?
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.0W AT 03/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
Thanx for the ping.
Heads up Ike.
See advisory above for watches and warnings.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Statement as of 5:00 PM CDT on August 03, 2008
...Depression strengthens to a tropical storm...the fifth of the
season...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to Intracoastal
City. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect west of Intracoastal City
to Port Oconnor Texas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM CDT...2200z...the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 28.1 north...longitude 88.0 west or about 95
miles...155 km...southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and
about 420 miles...675 km...east of Galveston Texas.
Edouard is moving toward the west near 6 mph...9 km/hr...and
a general motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center
of the cyclone will move parallel to the Louisiana coast tonight
and Monday...and approach the Upper Texas coast on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Edouard could be nearing hurricane strength before
landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2
inches along the the Louisiana coast with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 3 inches. Once the system moves to the Upper Texas
coast...total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible over southeast Texas.
Repeating the 500 PM CDT position...28.1 N...88.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Blake
Most really aren't this close to the coast anymore as that easy stuff was found about 50 years ago.
But all of the platforms can easily withstand tropical storm winds.
The ones that are still there will probably go ahead and remove all but essential personnel just to be safe, but the oil industry basically does overkill to be safe.
The truth is you'd be fine on an oil platform during a Category 1 storm. Those things are anchored and won't budge.
Tropical Storm Edouard Special Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on August 03, 2008
when the reconnaissance aircraft passed through the convection to
the southeast of the center a short time ago...it found maximum
flight level winds of 54 kt and a surface pressure of 1002 mb...a
drop of 5 mb in an hour and a half. These data indicate that the
depression has strengthened into the fifth tropical storm of the
season.
This special advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of
the tropical cyclone. Edouard is now expected to be near hurricane
intensity at landfall...with the official forecast between the GFDL
and SHIPS guidance.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 03/2200z 28.1n 88.0w 40 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 28.2n 89.4w 45 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 28.4n 91.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.9n 93.8w 60 kt
48hr VT 05/1800z 29.5n 96.2w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/1800z 30.5n 100.5w 20 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 07/1800z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Franklin/Blake
Thanks NautiNurse.Here’s a bump.
Good info. Thanks.
LOL. Too late.
Don't forget these things have been making about a 30 mile turn to the right/east just before landfall.
Diamond Offshore's Ocean Warwick jackup washed up onto Dauphin Island, Alabama, far from its original location. (Katrina)
Battering of US GOM structures brings discussion of standards
BTW, notice how the oil/gas rigs cease just at the edge of the Alabama state line. There's lots of oil/gas on over to the east off the Florida coast too.
Let’s look at the bright side.
Each one of these minimal tropical storms/hurricanes provide much needed moisture to coastal areas. Additionally, these storms suck heat from the water - and that’s less heat available to grow other storms later in the season.
It is now looking ominous in my neck of the woods.
I appreciate your optimism, albeit storm surge and wind are the primary concerns should Edouard continue to strengthen.
That is what I’m thinking. Dolly did not provide much rain to Central and Northern Texas. As long as Edouard does not become more than a minimal hurricane and does not stall out, it could be quite beneficial.
But both are always big ‘ifs’ when it comes to tropical systems in and around the Gulf. Alison showed how ‘just’ a middling tropical storm could unleash major havoc.
Galveston Bay area checking in. We had a light shower today which we could use more of. What I don't want is high winds. I have a trailer with a 4 wheeler in my yard that I'll need to make room for in the garage. If you could see my garage you'd understand my unhappiness.
I really, really hope that East Texas gets some MUCH needed rain. (and the rest of you dry areas as well)
Thread has been moved from Chat to News accordingly.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.