Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Another advisory comes out at 2am. I just know all of you will be awake for that. lol!
I saw a news article years ago about a homeowner that had access to quite a few school buses, he completely surrounded his house with then forming a barrier wall.
I can think it would be effective to a certain point.
Thanks! And, yes, I will. My best friend is about to move to Florida and will be in the “cone” zone all the way down. They have no computer or TV (packed by movers) and have no idea what is going on. I finally called them today (Sunday) and told them: you are trying to get to Crystal River on Tuesday? Are you out of your minds? At least told them to contact the moving co. to make sure the delivery was still on schedule (ha!) and their new employer for local news. Told them to stick with me, I’m with the best hurricane information network in the US (FR, of course)! They are going to become two new (conservative) FReepers in the future.
NautiNurse: told my friends all about you and these threads, and they want to get on your ping list. Told them you are the best, along with all the great posters here!!!!
I was wondering what the front across Georgia might do to Fay, and I notice this morning that several of the models have an interesting “hook” in the forecast...only one model had that last night before I went to bed.
That said, I agree with the poster who said we probably won’t know what she’s going to do until she crosses Cuba.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 18, 2008
...Fay crossing central Cuba...new warnings issued for South
Florida...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along
the Florida East Coast from Jupiter Inlet southward...and along the
Florida West Coast from Bonita Beach southward...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
south of Ocean Reef to Key West...including the Dry Tortugas and
Florida Bay.
At 5 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is in effect from north of
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet.
At 5 am EDT...the government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical
storm watch for the northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of
Ocean Reef to Key West...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida
Bay...and along the Florida Mainland from Card Sound bridge
westward to Tarpon Springs.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Cuba from the provinces of
la Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of Cuba from
Camaguey westward.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Cayman Brac and
Little Cayman.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman island.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula...the northwestern
Bahamas...and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Fay.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located inland over central Cuba near latitude 22.5
north...longitude 80.9 west or about 105 miles...170
km...east-southeast of Havana Cuba and about 155 miles ...250
km...south-southeast of Key West Florida.
Fay is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr.
This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with a
turn to the north expected on Tuesday. The center of Fay should be
emerging into the Florida Straits later this morning...and be very
near the Florida Keys tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected after the center of Fay
emerges over water. Fay is forecast to be approaching hurricane
strength in the Florida Keys and to become a hurricane before it
reaches the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over much of Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. Heavy rains are expected to spread across South Florida
today. Storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with maximum amounts
of 10 inches are possible for the Florida Keys and South Florida.
Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible
in the northwestern Bahamas.
Storm tides along the South Coast of Cuba will be diminishing today.
Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...22.5 N...80.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Berg
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 18, 2008
the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft fixed the center of Fay over
central Cuba to the southwest of the rotation aloft apparent in
radar imagery. With this fix...the initial motion is now 335/10.
Ascat data south of Cuba prior to landfall showed the surface
center becoming elongated...likely in response to the convective
asymmetry...and some additional distortion of the surface
circulation is likely during the passage of the center over Cuba.
All track guidance suggests that Fay will maintain a
north-northwestward heading for another 24 hours until it reaches
the subtropical ridge axis. The official forecast is near the
right-hand side of the guidance envelope early on...but some
additional rightward adjustments may be necessary if the current
convective structure persists and the cyclone remains vertically
connected. There are large differences in the track guidance late
in the forecast period and the run to run consistency of the
guidance has been very poor. Given that...only a slight eastward
shift has been made later in the forecast period.
The initial intensity remains 45 kt...with these winds occurring
just off the north coast of Cuba. An upper-level
low over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea is impeding the
outflow over the western portion of the tropical cyclone...and some
westerly shear is expected to continue for the next day or two.
Given this pattern...rapid strengthening is not expected...but the
shear is not expected to be strong enough to prevent Fay from
reaching hurricane strength before it reaches the Florida
Peninsula. The official forecast is close to the GFDL and SHIPS
guidance.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 22.5n 80.9w 45 kt...inland
12hr VT 18/1800z 23.5n 81.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 25.1n 82.0w 55 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 26.6n 82.3w 65 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 28.2n 82.2w 60 kt...inland
72hr VT 21/0600z 31.1n 82.0w 45 kt...inland
96hr VT 22/0600z 33.0n 82.0w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 23/0600z 35.5n 82.5w 20 kt...remnant low
$$
forecaster Franklin
bump
The forecast track has been shifted slightly east--again. There is
still a substantial amount of uncertainty with the forecast track.
Storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with maximum amounts of
10" are possible for the Florida Keys and South Florida.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Forecast track bouncing back and forth over the past 24 hours.
I have been keeping an eye on it - so far, I don’t know whether I should shiite or get out of the way ;-)
I’ll prolly prepare for a full up Wilma type event this afternoon.
Got the boat tied up good enough yesterday and the holding tank is full so I’ll be ready for whatever shows up.
I see the Key West FReepers are starting to get some of the outer bands - prayers up.
Thank you for keeping me updated on what’s happening with this storm, NautiNurse.
What a mess with schools opening today.
You know the kids are digging it! Obviously, God hates school too!
At least, that’s how I would have taken it...
I once worked as a temp and they told me to take a bunch of the stuff I’d just worked on to Gay in payables. Not knowing who that was I went to payables and asked the woman there, “Are you Gay?”
I immediately got a deer caught in the headlights look as soon as I said it. She sort of had a wry smile and answered, “Uh, huh.”.
Meanwhile, the adults in the house would like to know whether we will be on the dirty side of the storm or not.
Morning! I wish Fay would make up her mind!
I’m not sure if I qualify as an adult then, I’m hoping for some big waves in Pinellas— I want to go surfing!
A mild Elena style event would be perfect!
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