Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
000
WTNT31 KNHC 160852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY WILL CROSS HAITI AND EMERGE OVER WATER LATER TODAY...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 35 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
235 MILES...375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.7 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 16, 2008
...Fay will cross Haiti and emerge over water later today...
at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of
the Dominican Republic from east of Cabo Frances Viejo on the
northern coast to San Pedro de macoris on the southern coast has
been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti...and for the entire coast of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...the southeastern Bahamas...and the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Holguin and Las Tunas...and for the central Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible in the provinces of central Cuba
within the next 36 hours.
Interests in western Cuba...the Florida Keys...and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 18.7 north...longitude 72.0 west or about 20
miles... 35 km...east-northeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about
235 miles...375 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today...followed by a turn
toward the northwest by Sunday night. On this track...the center
of Fay will move across Haiti this morning...and will be moving
near the southern coast of eastern and central Cuba tonight and
Sunday.
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Fay could weaken slightly while moving over Hispaniola this
morning...but some strengthening is possible later today and on
Sunday after the center moves back over water.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Hispaniola...eastern and central Cuba...Jamaica...and
the northern Cayman Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...18.7 N...72.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
bump
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 16, 2008
even though we cannot determine exactly where the center of Fay is
located...satellite imagery and data from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft suggest it is still inland...over
south-central Hispaniola near the border between the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. The Air Force plane circumnavigated the entire
island of Hispaniola during the past few hours...enduring some
rather turbulent conditions...especially within the strongest
thunderstorms near the southern coast...and we appreciate the hard
work of the crew. Flight-level and SFMR data from the aircraft
support maintaining the intensity at 40 kt. Fay remains beneath a
large upper-level anticyclone resulting in well-established outflow
aloft...and despite the interaction with mountainous terrain...the
storm has a relative well-organized appearance in satellite
imagery.
The system appears to be continuing westward at about 270/12 to the
south of a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The
synoptic reasoning...dynamical model tracks...and the official
forecast track are not significantly changed from the previous
advisory. All of the models forecast the mid- to upper-level trough
over the eastern U.S. To gradually erode the ridge during the next
couple of days...allowing Fay to turn to the right into the
weakness...eventually leading to a north-northwestward motion in
3-5 days. The new official track is very close to the previous one
and to the model consensus...but there are reliable models on both
sides of that track. The GFDL and HWRF tracks head up the western
portion of the Florida Peninsula in a few days...while the GFS and
UKMET are farther west over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In the
shorter term...the models also do not agree on whether the center
of Fay will pass over or just south of southeastern Cuba before
turning northwestward. These differing solutions again highlight
the pitfalls of focusing too much on the exact official forecast
track...especially at the longer ranges.
Intensity forecasting is always difficult...but in this case is made
even more complicated by the likely interactions with land during
the next few days. Atmospheric and ocean conditions along the
forecast track appear rather conducive for strengthening...so the
more time Fay spends over water...the stronger it is likely to
become...and vice versa. Dynamical model fields indicate that the
weak-shear environment around Fay should persist throughout most of
the five-day forecast period...with perhaps a modest but temporary
increase in shear in roughly 48 hours. When Fay is over
water...those waters will be very warm. Since the official track
implies ample amount of time over water...steady strengthening is
forecast...in a manner similar to the GFDL model. Fay could be
weaker than forecast if its stay over Hispaniola has substantially
disrupted the circulation...or if it moves farther north and east
and spends more time over Cuba. A track farther south and
west...however...could allow Fay to get stronger than what is
shown below.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0900z 18.7n 72.0w 40 kt
12hr VT 16/1800z 19.0n 74.0w 40 kt
24hr VT 17/0600z 19.6n 76.4w 50 kt
36hr VT 17/1800z 20.5n 78.3w 55 kt
48hr VT 18/0600z 21.8n 79.9w 65 kt...near S coast of Cuba
72hr VT 19/0600z 25.0n 82.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 20/0600z 28.5n 83.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 21/0600z 32.0n 84.5w 35 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Knabb
Thanks
Ping bump
Latest reports from Puerto Viagra indicate a stiffening
of the storm and a definate curve thrusting to the north.
More reports as they come in....
This is looking like a direct hit on my kids in Key West. They are out of town guess they will have to come home early.
My buddy has the contract for PR in the Keys. They also make him kick everyone out. Tough job but no on better than him.
We've been so fortunate for so many years here in Tampa Bay. Soon enough we'll know whether our good luck holds up or runs out with Fickle Fay.
Thanks for the updates, good luck.
Not to wish anyone bad weather, but we don’t need it here in Pensacola. The way they’re moving the track westward has me nervous, so much for tuna fishing this week.
Was listening to the local fishing talk radio show this morning. They were drooling about great fishing as a storm approaches.
Of course, I have always believed those pre-hurricane fishing stories are a ploy to avoid hurricane prep around the house. ;o)
Be sure and stop by Outcast before you go tuna fishing, say hi to Tommy and Anthony.
;o)
Too Good NN, and me on a diet!
Could you please delete post #82. Thanks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
