[avacado]

0.83% Pesidential Race!

Okay, so it's late, I'm bored and can't sleep. Anyways, this little exercise of mine of re-weighting the polls simply shows that we will win with a good Republican voter turnout! Bank on it!

I am also willing to bet that Republicans, Conservatives, and many Democrats are just a bit more enthusiastic this year than in 2004 to get to the polls to ensure that a Marxist scum bag doesn't enter the White House.

[teletech]

Uh isn’t that .93 instead of .83?

[Blind Eye Jones]

If McCain wins despite the MSM it would almost be a miracle. The odds are next to insurmountable considering what he is up against. Maybe Obama’s bad news travels faster than good news.

[DiogenesLaertius]

We’re not going to see 2004 turnout. We’ll see more like a 2006 turnout. Republican turnout will be up from 2006 where it was completely demoralized but so will democratic turnout.

2004 was an aberration year where republicans were turned out in equal numbers to dem.

We’ll see a restoration to the typical +3 dem spread this year I expect.

Mac is behind, but he can still make it if independents break for him in the final voting and the GOP’s 72 hour effort is strong.

[LS]

You're right to do this. There is NOTHING in "early voting" to suggest that ANY of these Dem heavy models are legitimate. If anything, we know that a lot of Dems are phoney Dems from the "Operation Chaos days," that the Jews are abandoning Obama in droves, and that the "Bradley Effect" is almost certain to have a role.

A one or even two-point McCain deficit in the polls next Mon.=McCain wins the EC in a tight race. An even race in the polls=McCain probably also gets IA, NH, and possibly PA. If McCain has a lead going into the final days, he could possibly add WI. I think that's about as much as he can hope for. NM might possibly tag along, but the gaps elsewhere are too big.

[uncbob]

That doesn’t even take into account the number of democrats that will vote for McCain and won’t tell the pollsters or don’t answer the phone

[paul544]

I thought FR called this the most accurate pollster out there. Why are we now second guessing their assumptions?

[Kevmo]

Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.

Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts