Posted on 10/26/2008 12:57:36 AM PDT by avacado
October 25, 2008 IBD/TIPP POLL Re-weighted
I re-weighted the IBD/TIPP poll using their internals given for percentage of party voting for each candidate. Obama has 84% Democrats, 7% Republicans, and 42% Independents. McCain has 7% Democrats, 85% Republicans, and 37% Independents.
Using the 2004 turnout of Democrats 37%, Republicans 37%, and Independents 26%, the IBD/TIPP poll from October 25, 2008 goes from the current poll numbers to the following:
Current IBD/TIPP Poll
Obama 45.8% McCain 41.9% Difference 3.9%
Re-weighted IBD/TIPP Poll
Obama 44.59% McCain 43.66% Difference 0.83%
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
Okay, so it's late, I'm bored and can't sleep. Anyways, this little exercise of mine of re-weighting the polls simply shows that we will win with a good Republican voter turnout! Bank on it!
I am also willing to bet that Republicans, Conservatives, and many Democrats are just a bit more enthusiastic this year than in 2004 to get to the polls to ensure that a Marxist scum bag doesn't enter the White House.
Uh isn’t that .93 instead of .83?
Ooops! Indeed it is. Next time I'll use my glasses when using the calculator. Thanks for the correction!
We’re not going to see 2004 turnout. We’ll see more like a 2006 turnout. Republican turnout will be up from 2006 where it was completely demoralized but so will democratic turnout.
2004 was an aberration year where republicans were turned out in equal numbers to dem.
We’ll see a restoration to the typical +3 dem spread this year I expect.
Mac is behind, but he can still make it if independents break for him in the final voting and the GOP’s 72 hour effort is strong.
A one or even two-point McCain deficit in the polls next Mon.=McCain wins the EC in a tight race. An even race in the polls=McCain probably also gets IA, NH, and possibly PA. If McCain has a lead going into the final days, he could possibly add WI. I think that's about as much as he can hope for. NM might possibly tag along, but the gaps elsewhere are too big.
37D, 37R, and 26I was indeed the 2004 distribution. Here is a chart that contains this information for every election since 1972.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html
Note that two years ago, in what was a very bad year for the GOP, the breakdown was 37D, 34R, and 29I. Note that the Democrats have never done better than 39% since 1986, have never had more than a 3 point advantage in any election since 2000 (and that happened only once, in 2006), havent done better than 38% since 2000, and have had 4 point advantages in only two election cycles (Presidential and mid-year) since 198
That doesn’t even take into account the number of democrats that will vote for McCain and won’t tell the pollsters or don’t answer the phone
the unionistas are insane for obama.
in FL we have only the teacher’s union with any sizable power. They are pushing hard for the chancelor obama.
where are the Pumas?
where are these ephemeral angry hillary voters?
has anyone met more than one?
psy ops are very real this election.
*sigh*
"We" are not second guessing anything. *I* am mathematically re-weighting IBD/TIPP's poll results to the year 2004 voter turnout of Dems 37%, Reps 37%, Inds 26%. With the re-weighted calculation, you are free to do as you please with them: ignore them, ponder them, whatever.
Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.
Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts
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