IBD/TIPP Poll 10/25/08 Re-weighted to 2004 Turnout: (Obama 44.59%, McCain 43.66%)

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll ^ | October 26, 2008 | Avacado

[avacado]

October 25, 2008 IBD/TIPP POLL Re-weighted

I re-weighted the IBD/TIPP poll using their internals given for percentage of party voting for each candidate. Obama has 84% Democrats, 7% Republicans, and 42% Independents. McCain has 7% Democrats, 85% Republicans, and 37% Independents.

Using the 2004 turnout of Democrats 37%, Republicans 37%, and Independents 26%, the IBD/TIPP poll from October 25, 2008 goes from the current poll numbers to the following:

Current IBD/TIPP Poll

Obama  45.8%
McCain 41.9%
Difference 3.9%

Re-weighted IBD/TIPP Poll

Obama  44.59%
McCain 43.66%
Difference 0.83%

[avacado]

0.83% Pesidential Race!

Okay, so it's late, I'm bored and can't sleep. Anyways, this little exercise of mine of re-weighting the polls simply shows that we will win with a good Republican voter turnout! Bank on it!

I am also willing to bet that Republicans, Conservatives, and many Democrats are just a bit more enthusiastic this year than in 2004 to get to the polls to ensure that a Marxist scum bag doesn't enter the White House.

[teletech]

Uh isn’t that .93 instead of .83?

[Blind Eye Jones]

If McCain wins despite the MSM it would almost be a miracle. The odds are next to insurmountable considering what he is up against. Maybe Obama’s bad news travels faster than good news.

[avacado]

"Uh isn’t that .93 instead of .83?"

Ooops! Indeed it is. Next time I'll use my glasses when using the calculator. Thanks for the correction!

[DiogenesLaertius]

We’re not going to see 2004 turnout. We’ll see more like a 2006 turnout. Republican turnout will be up from 2006 where it was completely demoralized but so will democratic turnout.

2004 was an aberration year where republicans were turned out in equal numbers to dem.

We’ll see a restoration to the typical +3 dem spread this year I expect.

Mac is behind, but he can still make it if independents break for him in the final voting and the GOP’s 72 hour effort is strong.

[LS]

You're right to do this. There is NOTHING in "early voting" to suggest that ANY of these Dem heavy models are legitimate. If anything, we know that a lot of Dems are phoney Dems from the "Operation Chaos days," that the Jews are abandoning Obama in droves, and that the "Bradley Effect" is almost certain to have a role.

A one or even two-point McCain deficit in the polls next Mon.=McCain wins the EC in a tight race. An even race in the polls=McCain probably also gets IA, NH, and possibly PA. If McCain has a lead going into the final days, he could possibly add WI. I think that's about as much as he can hope for. NM might possibly tag along, but the gaps elsewhere are too big.

[crosslink]

37D, 37R, and 26I was indeed the 2004 distribution. Here is a chart that contains this information for every election since 1972.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html
Note that two years ago, in what was a very bad year for the GOP, the breakdown was 37D, 34R, and 29I. Note that the Democrats have never done better than 39% since 1986, have never had more than a 3 point advantage in any election since 2000 (and that happened only once, in 2006), haven’t done better than 38% since 2000, and have had 4 point advantages in only two election cycles (Presidential and mid-year) since 198

[uncbob]

That doesn’t even take into account the number of democrats that will vote for McCain and won’t tell the pollsters or don’t answer the phone

[longtermmemmory]

the unionistas are insane for obama.

in FL we have only the teacher’s union with any sizable power. They are pushing hard for the chancelor obama.

[paul544]

I thought FR called this the most accurate pollster out there. Why are we now second guessing their assumptions?

[longtermmemmory]

where are the Pumas?

where are these ephemeral angry hillary voters?

has anyone met more than one?

psy ops are very real this election.

[avacado]

"I thought FR called this the most accurate pollster out there. Why are we now second guessing their assumptions?"

*sigh*

"We" are not second guessing anything. *I* am mathematically re-weighting IBD/TIPP's poll results to the year 2004 voter turnout of Dems 37%, Reps 37%, Inds 26%. With the re-weighted calculation, you are free to do as you please with them: ignore them, ponder them, whatever.

[Kevmo]

Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.

Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts