Posted on 09/20/2009 9:06:32 PM PDT by mamelukesabre
A video sent to me by a friend got me looking for a little spreadsheet calculation I did a year or so ago. I found it on my computer finally. Thought I'd share it with you all.
There are approximately 700 million people in europe and approximately half that number live in USA. USA is being swarmed by illegal immigrants from the south and so is Europe, although europe's immigrants are turks and pakistanis and to some degree from north africa(egyptians, mostly). Native europeans have essentially stopped reproducing. A similar phenomenon is happening in USA with european-americans. Euro-americans are being replaced by immigrants...and ethnic europeans in europe are being replaced by non-european immigrants from outside europe.
Since europe and america are so similar in this regard, I did only one calc for both of them. Just double the numbers to get european population figures.
European(we'll call them euros from here on) birthrate is approximately 1.5 babies per woman.
I will use 3 babies per woman for non europeans. It's an oversimplification since there is no such ethnicity as “non-european”. But I am lazy that way. Many ethnicities have much higher than 3 babies per woman. Others, such as east asians(orientals), are much lower than that.
Euros tend to start families very late in life. Between age 30 and age 40. I will use 3 generations per century, or 33.3 year span from a woman's birth, to the birth of her middle child.
Non-euros start families earlier. I will use 20 years of age for non-euro women. This gives us 5 generations per century. Or 20 years from the woman's birth to the age at which she gives birth to her middle child.
Assume an equal ratio between males and females.(this will not work with china. More on that later)
To simplify the math, we will assume current demographics as being twice as many euros than non euros. First generation in the following tables represents the most recent crop of babies. Out of 200million total euros in america, I will arbitrarily label 1/10th of them as the current crop of babies. Because non euro populations tend to be more heavily weighted to the youngsters, I will arbitrarily assign 25% of the non-euro population as “current crop”. To get from one generation to the next, divide the population total by half(for females), then multiply by the average birth rate.
Euros
year zero 1st generation: 20 million
year 33.3 2nd generation: 15 million
year 66.6 3rdgeneration: 11.25 million
year 100 4th generation: 8.44 million
total: 15+11.25+8.44=34.7 million (I assume the original generation is all dead by year 100)
Non-Euros
year zero 1st generation: 25 million
year 20 2nd generation: 37.5million
year 40 3rd generation: 56.25 million
year 60 4th generation: 84.4 million
year 80 5th generation: 253.125million
year 100 6th generation: 379.69million
total: 379.69+253.125+84.4+56.25=773.5million
(since non-euros don't live as long as euros, I assume the first TWO generations are dead by year 100)
Let me make it extra extra clear. I am saying 100 years from now, the population of the USA will be approximately 35 million european-americans and roughly 3/4billion non-european-americans. Simply double the numbers for the continent of europe. 70Million ethnic europeans vs 1.5billion non-ethnic-euros living in europe. Obviously, this is assuming current birth trends continue unchanged for 100 years...probably not realistic, but I have nothing else to go on. It also assumes immigration stops today. I think we all know that is a fairy tale and that continued immigration will only shrink the percentage of euros in the population total.
China is even worse off since they have a law that every woman is only allowed one child in her lifetime. Because of this law and the forced abortions that occur when the law is broken, families are pressured to make certain their one and only child allowed by law is a boy. Female children are sometimes aborted. This has skewed the male female ratio to 100girls per 120boys. In other words, each crop of babies is only 41.5% female, instead of the usual 50%.
current population in china is approximately 1 billion. It's a little more than that, but I'm simplifying the math. Assume the current crop of babies is 10% of that number...or 100million.
Year zero 1st generation: 100million
year 33.3, 2nd generation: 41.5 million
year66.6 3rd generation: 17.22 million
year 100 4th generation: 7.147 million
total: 100+41.5+17.22+7.147=165million
(since chinese live a really long time, I assume no one dies by year 100)
There ya have it folks. According to my calcs, east asians(orientals) and euros will be nearly extinct in not much more than a century from today. In america, euros tend to be more conservative minded than the non-euros. I think we can all easily deduce from that fact what this means for america as far as future politics is concerned. Personally, I think we will see some major changes in our lifetime when the baby boomers begin to die off. They are mostly euros and mostly conservative and they are age 50 to age 70 today. They represent a "bulge" in population demographics. So their die-off will make a significant impact on american demographics, and thus the voting demographic, and thus the politics of america will change...DRASTICALLY!
We are living in our "last HOORAH" as free americans. Enjoy it. Make the most of it. It will be over very soon.
Thank you. That is in fact the vid.
No problem, see my other post as well. Personally I don;’t believe BBC Radio 4 is without heavy liberal bias - there are a lot of comments to that effect and mention of how Sharia law is being demanded in the European nations by the mooselimb population.
I got accused of being a racist, or at least insinuated it, for posting this about demographics shift. that was a big shock for me.
Pointing out facts is never racist. However, not stating biases in methodology or statistics/sampling, etc, can be construed as such even though there was no nefarious intent. I think I know what comment you’re referring to and that may say more about the poster choosing to be offended than the intent of anything you stated.
When I read through your posting I didn’t really see anything pernicious in it, but to be honest I had just watched the video the day prior to seeing your post (hence I knew the name of it and was able to provide a link so readily). That may have set me up to be more open to the point you were trying to make. What I saw was a statement by you that claimed you knew there were flaws in your logic, that you were making several leaps of faith, but the thrust of your argument was that we are being taken over by a decline in birthrate among Caucasians (”euro whites”) and a steady increase in birth rates among immigrants - especially those of the Arabic/middle eastern persuasion.
I’d not let the accusation get to you (easier said than done I know). The racist label has no meaning anymore because it is so overused; as it is in this case AFAIC.
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