Posted on 03/20/2010 12:45:18 PM PDT by bananaman22
Back in the days when US oil demand controlled the price of oil, a massive recession in the United States would have sent oil to 12.00 dollars a barrel. That era, which ended last decade, was defined by ongoing spare capacity in OPEC, low-cost oil in Non-OPEC, and nascent demand for oil in the developing world. That was then, and this is now. And so it’s rather quaint that the energy analysts from that previous era still gather each week on American financial TV, to discuss the inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma? The US has been removing discretionary demand for oil for years, starting back in 2004. And current unemployment in California is at 13.2%–another new post-war high. Yet oil is at 82.00 dollars? Get these analysts off TV. Please. We need analysis of diesel demand in Guangdong, and Uttar Pradesh.
With the closing out of the decade we also have the full data set, on global crude oil production. As you can see from the chart below, the twin peaks of oil production in 2005 and 2008 reveal that while the world was able to respond to a moderate price advance coming out of 2002, nearly all of the price action above 40.00 dollars a barrel starting in late 2004 did not produce more supply. Welcome to peak oil: when the world’s remaining supply of oil is more diffuse, of lower grade, harder to extract, and is unable to flow in the aggregate at higher production levels. Full article at: Price of Oil
Define “peak oil”.
With the Tupi field just discovered, and the reassessment of the Orinoco field?
That's a joke.
I guess oil prices will be going lower then.
The USA has 4 to 5 times the Saudis reserves in oil, coal diesel, shale oil, permafrost hydrate gas, etc. This does not count offshore. The Saudis own Obama, the Dems and environmentalists. The Dems keep making energy rich federal lands into parks for their Saudi bosses.
Were we to start an offshore drilling program, then, yes, we may have a minor effect.
Peak Oil = Peak Gullibility = Peak Stupidity
How long ago was peak whale oil? Peak Lumber?
And yet, our political leadership believes that we have the luxury of not drilling for our own oil, a position that any other country in the world would refuse to do.
See, the Democrats really do believe in American exceptionalism!
The Saudi’s OWN the US Congress.
If we, the US of A, had a National Energy Policy we would not be in this predicament.
What we have is a National Energy Policy of refusing to admit there is a problem and blinders to our own national resources.
I’ll define it for ya so this article will make sense...
Forget the environmentalist’s definition of peak oil.
Peak oil is when we reach a point where oil exploration and production is no longer flexible enough to adjust perfectly with oil demand.
In otherwords, pure capitalism is no longer in play in the oil industry. there is a rigidity imposed on the markets that resists flexibility in supply. Lots of things contribute. Let me attempt to list the culprits:
1. environmentalists’ restrictions on energy development
2. taxes
3. regulation
4. oil cartels (ie OPEC)
5. cap and trade
6. subsidized renewable energy
7. tyrannical totalitarian mismanagement of third world oil resources
8. Energy producer nations and energy consumer nations are increasingly mutually exclusive groups.
9. corruption
10. loss of confidence in the US $dollar
Peak oil=crashed dollar
Obambi continues to serve Islam.
I dissagree.
I think “peak oil” is an excuse to enable government to continue inaction and to avoid blame.
However, I won’t completely rule out your idea either.
“Welcome to Free Republic.”
(last Wednesday)
Peek oil is like peek healthcare. Artificial shortages designed to control sheeple.
I don't see it as inaction. They have banned offshore drilling. They shut down oil shale development and drilling on government land. They stop new technology and they stop new refineries. Their action is to stop oil so the big international crooks like soros can make billions.
Include refining in production (and I think you do) and you've got it. There may be plenty of oil and oil equivalents in the ground, but if you can't meet a year's demand for barrels per year, you will get much, much higher prices.
The peak oil argument stupidly stated is that "the sky is falling, we've used up all of the oil." Understandably, many posters disagree with that, as do I. The peak oil argument intelligently stated--as by you--is that we may not be able to deliver oil products at the rate the economy demands within the accustomed price range. This causes increased prices, which both reduces demand, and after a time of investment, eventually increases supply. So, the "peak oil" claim of much higher prices makes sense to me.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.