Skip to comments.The One-Hour Meltdown
Posted on 06/06/2010 11:52:21 PM PDT by Windflier
The following is just my opinion. It is nothing more than my opinion. I have nothing to substantiate or prove any aspect of my opinion. My opinion is simply the logical conclusion of a law-abiding sixty-year old Christian grandfather who has both an engineering degree and an M.B.A. degree and who has seen both good times and hard times during his life.
The Current Situation:
At the present time every nation in the entire world is facing serious financial and social stress. If only a few nations were involved then it might be possible to contain the upcoming meltdown to a few specific geographical areas. This has been successfully done in the past. However, since the entire world is currently on the edge of the cliff, when the meltdown begins it will impact almost everyone on the face of the earth.
Unless God chooses to intervene, the meltdown is no longer avoidable. Our governments and our financial institutions are no longer in control. However, to keep the system working just a little longer they must maintain the illusion that they have the system under control. But the system is broken and it can't be fixed.
There are two reasons why the system can't be fixed:
1. It has grown beyond its own capacity to support itself.
2. It has become so complex that no one can do anything significant to fix it because it is hemorrhaging in too many different places.
The average person in every nation on the face of the earth knows the meltdown is coming. The wealthy people know it. The poor people know it. Nobody wants it to happen. But almost everyone is just patiently waiting for it to begin and at the same time hoping that it doesn't begin too soon.
Nobody knows when the meltdown will actually start. It may begin one-month from now. Or a year from now. Or three-years from now.
But almost everyone knows that at some future date the meltdown will occur.
This widespread knowledge of the impending disaster is the reason that when the disaster begins it will quickly and completely spiral out-of-control in one-hour or less. In my opinion, most people do not seriously believe it could happen this quickly. Most people expect a more gradual meltdown. They may be right because nobody can predict the future, and that includes myself.
The One-Hour Meltdown
However, my personal opinion is that once the meltdown begins then in less than one-hour it will quickly escalate far beyond anyone's ability to control or manage it on a worldwide basis. The five basic assumptions that cause me to believe in my "one-hour meltdown theory" are as follows:
1. Banks: The financial institutions around the world cannot withstand a full-scale worldwide bank run. Therefore, they have already made plans to immediately shut down the instant they are told to do so. Within minutes, all across the globe, all the ATM machines will be offline, all credit card and debit card verification transactions will be halted, and all banks will have their vaults locked and their doors locked and their building emptied of all personnel, except perhaps for some special security guards. All high-level bank executives will immediately disappear to a wide variety of remote safe unknown locations. All telephone call inquiries to any of the financial institutions will be automatically answered by a computer with a pre-recorded message similar to the following: "Our system is currently experiencing an extremely high call volume and therefore we are unable to answer your call at this time. Please try again later when our call volume returns to normal."
2. Governments: The vast majority of our government leaders all over the world are relatively intelligent individuals. They completely understand the ramifications of a "bank holiday" in our computer controlled financial economy. Therefore, all government offices will also be immediately shut down, and they will empty their buildings and lock their doors. Any transaction in progress, including any trials in progress, will be immediately halted and postponed until some future date. All high-level government officials, including all judges and tax officials, will immediately disappear to a wide variety of remote safe unknown locations.
3. Retail Businesses: Since they will be unable to process even simple transactions, all retail establishments, both large and small, will immediately lock their doors to prevent anyone else from entering. If possible, they will complete any transactions for customers already inside their building if those customers have enough cash to pay for their purchases. Any customers wishing to pay by check or credit card or debit card will be told that the verification system is down and their transaction can't be completed. All customers will then be immediately escorted to the doors and the doors will be briefly opened and then immediately locked after they exit. In addition, in a manner similar to what happened during the World Trade Center meltdown, each store's management may demand that their employees remain at their stations until further notice or they will lose their jobs for leaving without management's permission. But most of the more intelligent employees will leave at the same time as the store's last few remaining customers. The store's special security guards may or may not remain behind in order to protect the store with their lives. Since most of these special security guards are not paid exceptionally well, a large number of them may decide that they should return home and protect their own families instead.
4. Criminals: Anyone and everyone who has any criminal tendencies and who has been patiently waiting for this to happen will immediately see it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to improve their financial situation. More than likely the vast majority of these criminals have already made very detailed plans that includes exactly which businesses they are going to rob first, second, third, and so on. Any business with a reasonable level of cash-on-hand will be very high on every criminal's list. Every jewelry store and pawn shop that has any type of silver or gold jewelry, or precious stones (diamonds, rubies, emeralds, etc.), will be very high on everyone's list. The warfare that breaks out at these establishments between competing criminals will not be pleasant.
5. Normal People: Normal average people will begin looting. Grocery stores will be broken into and they will be completely emptied from wall-to-wall, including the rear storage area, in less than one-hour. Stores that have firearms, ammunition, appliances, clothing, shoes, or anything else needed by the average citizen will be emptied in less than one-hour. In skirmishes over the few remaining resources, normal average people will begin killing one another inside the stores, and in the parking lots outside the stores, and on the streets as these fully loaded vehicles try to escape with their loot.
The above events will all happen simultaneously during the first one-hour of the meltdown. After that first hour has passed, things will really begin to get nasty. Everyone will quickly realize there are not are not enough law enforcement personnel to protect everyone and everything. Although the military will probably be ordered to protect specific high priority establishments and resources, there will simply not be enough military personnel to protect individual civilians or businesses.
More here: http://www.grandpappy.info/honehour.htm
Read the balance of the article at the link for the author's advice on how to survive such a catastrophe.
Would it help to withdraw all money out of the bank and IRAs or will cash be worthless......should I panic yet? this old lady wants to know....remove things from safety deposit box? Whats a woman to do....:o(
I agree with you, the situation is worse than what the public realizes. I think this is deliberate.
SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA: MAKING MONEY DURING A DEPRESSION(PREPARE TO BE SURPRISED)
What Would Another Great Depression Look Like Anyway?
Anybody who is not leading you in the direction of Psalm 91, and thinks there is a natural solution to the coming trouble, is operating in the spirit of anti-Christ. This is your solution, and if you think you can survive the coming great tribulation without the Lord God of Heaven’s assistance, you don’t have a prayer.
1 He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty.
2 I will say of the LORD, He is my refuge and my fortress: my God; in him will I trust.
3 Surely he shall deliver thee from the snare of the fowler, and from the noisome pestilence.
4 He shall cover thee with his feathers, and under his wings shalt thou trust: his truth shall be thy shield and buckler.
5 Thou shalt not be afraid for the terror by night; nor for the arrow that flieth by day;
6 Nor for the pestilence that walketh in darkness; nor for the destruction that wasteth at noonday.
7 A thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand; but it shall not come nigh thee.
8 Only with thine eyes shalt thou behold and see the reward of the wicked.
9 Because thou hast made the LORD, which is my refuge, even the most High, thy habitation;
10 There shall no evil befall thee, neither shall any plague come nigh thy dwelling.
11 For he shall give his angels charge over thee, to keep thee in all thy ways.
12 They shall bear thee up in their hands, lest thou dash thy foot against a stone.
13 Thou shalt tread upon the lion and adder: the young lion and the dragon shalt thou trample under feet.
14 Because he hath set his love upon me, therefore will I deliver him: I will set him on high, because he hath known my name.
15 He shall call upon me, and I will answer him: I will be with him in trouble; I will deliver him, and honour him.
16 With long life will I satisfy him, and shew him my salvation.
Believe me, this stuff is scary to all of us, me included. But, we need to quietly educate ourselves and spend time coming to grips with these possibilities while the social fabric is still intact and (relatively) peaceful.
My best advice, at least for tonight, is to go to the “How To Survive Hard Times” website and thoroughly study it. With knowledge comes certainty, and with certainty, confidence. Arm yourself with information now. Your sense of security will rise in direct proportion to learning this vital data, and then getting your preparations in hand.
Were you the one who posted the first thread from that website?
To a couple of the points you brought up:
The author put in an addendum at the bottom of that article that addressed people’s disagreement with his “One-Hour” timetable. He reiterates that it’s just an opinion, and that the total breakdown could take anywhere from an hour, up to a month to fully play out.
Personally, I agree with his initial assessment. Our world is so inextricably interconnected (especially the financial system), that if all of the major financial institutions shut down at once, it would cause instant panic, mayhem, and chaos all across the developed world. I see that as totally plausible.
As far as cash is concerned, I doubt that it would be worth much of anything, once everything crashed. At least not at first. The worst of the death and destruction would have to pass before the survivors were willing to begin doing any sort of primitive commerce with each other again. And at that point, I’ll bet that paper money wouldn’t be a recognized exchange medium. I’m pretty sure it would be precious metals. And even that wouldn’t happen until after things had stabilized quite a bit. Initially, barter would be the standard order of business.
Don’t know that I’d rely too much on the neighbors, either, unless they were as prepared as you are, and wouldn’t resort to trying to kill you to get your food.
Like the author says, being situated in a rural, or even semi-rural area will be the best possible place to survive such a disaster. If you’re inside a big city when the SHTF, you’re almost certainly going to be toast, unless you’re heavily armed, and have some way of making your way out without getting killed.
A while back I had posted a thread relating to shelf life of canned goods, part of which came from his site.
Tell ya what, though, I just read his recommended list of a years supply of food, and it seems to me he is way over. But who knows? I know my appetite and food habits easily double if I’m doing things that take alot of physical activity versus sitting on the couch.
Interesting blog post/article by a guy who is living through an economic depression.
His suggestions are interesting, but if the One-Hour Meltdown happens, things will be much, much worse than what's happening in Argentina right now, or even during the Great Depression. We're talking total breakdown of the established social order here.
Too bad this scenario sounds entirely possible at this point.
Excuse me, but no man tells me what my solution is. I walk the path I choose.
Thanks for sharing your wisdom.
ping for later
My Preparedness Manual:
Related older post [An event at my grocery store [An ATS member’s experience]:
Agreed, we are anticipating the other shoe dropping at some point in time.
As soon as the shelves in the markets start going bare, the fireworks will begin.
If my ATM card and credit cards don't work and my attempt to call the bank's toll-free number results in endless recordings about excessive call volumes, I'd simply stop paying my mortgage, stop making car payments, stop paying my credit card bills, etc.
So much banking is done electronically these days anway -- which means the banks themselves would have no means to get paid if the whole system "shut down."
Here’s The One Hour Meltdown I mentioned yesterday.
I make a mean one-hour meltdown, with five cheeses, tuna, multigrain pita, and tomatoes.
thanks for putting this up. this scenario is exactly how I have felt for many years on how things will go down. FAST. great article.
Not a chance. The nobles never give up power voluntarily.
It is. In another thread, someone mentioned cost-benefit analysis, the implication being that no rational individual would seek this sort of chaos much less engineer it. But here's the problem: we're not dealing with 'rational men'. We're dealing with monsters.
The only 'cost-benefit anaylsis' these monsters care about concerns who is left to rule from atop a heap of rubble and corpses.
A new feudalism (or worse) and a world lit only by fire will suit them just fine as long as they they believe that they will be the ones in the high castle.
Most of us dead. The rest of us in chains. Thats their cost-benefit analysis.
There is no where else for me to go so I am preparing to ride it out where I am for as long as I can. My children will most likely come here, if they can get here.
I tried getting out of here for Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Ike and will not get stuck on the roads again, ever.
Freepmail me if you want to know what I have done to prepare to ride it out here.
Great post - that said - because so many live in a state of denial - it might take a few extra hours. Even criminals want to be sure the mob is with them...
Safety deposit box is probably one of the least safe places to keep things.
Start putting some food away: things with long shelf life, batteries, water or water purification, gasoline if you’re able. Health and budget permitting, get yourself a weapon and the training to use it, with a minimum of 250 rounds of ammunition.
If you live in a city, do you have a place to go that would be safe?
Yup. Our debt is exceeding the GDP and these fools keep adding to the tab. This mad dash to spend is unsustainable and what these idiots don’t understand, is that at some point it has to be paid back before it collapses. But they are too busy trying to engineer a socialist state to care.
Check my tagline. I bought 5 so that when neighbors come to take my water, they can help make more instead.
I do live in a rural area and have a 20 gauge pump Winchester and a little colt cobra revolver, but I do want to get some more ammo...
My kids laughed when I started to put up canned goods in the basement, and one Christmas one of my daughter in laws got me some MRE;s from the base close to her house, we all got a good laugh at that one...I keep telling them to buy spam and ammo....Spam will outlast a nuclear blast. Another freeper said to not forget twinkies, they have a shelf life of about 100 years....
My kids don't take it too serious, but I do with this nitwit president we have...and the middle east with nukes...
I remember during WW2 everyone had a fruit/canned goods cellar in their basements. Also lots of home canned stuff.
On the other hand, if we get nuked, hope it lands on my head, then there is nothing to worry about...:o)
I kind of think ammo will be the coin of the realm and not money.
That actually sounds pretty good right now. I think I have some freeze dried tuna down in the bunker.
I was fortunate enough to find 10 and some metal ones for other uses.
If you live in a Blue Zone City, that might happen.
Away from the mega centers, it will not be Armageddon
Will likely get to it this evening.
"You don't need to move to the unexplored wilderness in Alaska. You don't need to move into the heart of the Arizona desert. You just need to relocate to an area that is more lightly populated than a big city. The area you select should meet the following minimum criteria:"We definitely did the right thing 11 years ago when we moved to northern Idaho. Work's hard to come by, but not so much if you're willing to work for less - or do something else entirely. Fortunately, we both know how how to garden, fix things, brew beer, reload ammo. Two of our horses are natural drafters. And I can teach any number of subjects from from my extensive hard copy library.
1.It is not on a major freeway or interstate. CHECK.
2.It is at least several hundred feet above sea level.CHECK
3.It is surrounded by farm land, dairy cows, and other typical farm livestock such as horses, pigs, sheep, goats, and chickens.CHECK
4.It has a history of good average rainfall (not too much rain or too little rain).CHECK
5.It has a reasonable supply of trees and forest timber land.CHECK
6.It has a few nearby manufacturing facilities of any size.CHECK
7.Its residents still have the right to own firearms to protect themselves.CHECK Do we ever!
8.It has short mild winters.NOPE! Keeps the riffraff and Californians out. But I repeat myself...
Agreed. My BO kit stays in the car, always.
We have a place way out in the woods in northern ME as a rally point. My longer-term gear is always ready to go; all of it can be loaded into my SUV in about four minutes. This would include most of my food, which is pre-loaded into heavy-duty containers and a cartop box, and about 5K rounds of ammo.
It sounds like you’re ahead of most of the rest of the world. Don’t forget water/water purification. Pick up some more ammo, and spend an afternoon or two at a range (or a gravel pit) to get reaquainted with your guns.
You’re right... the new money will be guns and ammunition, booze, soap, and toilet paper.
I would never barter away my booze, but might ammo and toilet paper....:O)
What you said.
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