Posted on 01/10/2011 2:55:07 PM PST by decimon
CHICAGO (Reuters) – A study of antibodies from people infected with H1N1 swine flu adds proof that scientists are closing in on a "universal" flu shot that could neutralize many types of flu strains, including H1N1 swine flu and H5N1 bird flu, U.S. researchers said on Monday.
They said people who were infected in the H1N1 pandemic developed an unusual immune response, making antibodies that could protect them from all the seasonal H1N1 flu strains from the last decade, the deadly "Spanish flu" strain from 1918 and even a strain of the H5N1 avian flu.
"It says that a universal influenza vaccine is really possible," said Patrick Wilson of the University of Chicago, who worked on the paper published in the Journal of Experimental Medicine.
Many teams are working on a "universal" flu shot that could protect people from all flu strains for decades or even life.
U.S. officials say an effective universal flu vaccine would have enormous ramifications for the control of influenza, which kills anywhere from 3,300 to 49,000 people in the United States each year.
We have long known the H5N1 was really,really bad news just waiting to jump into an upper respiratory format for transmission. What if the H1N1 was put out into the world’s population to fight fire with fire... if that worked then you would expect to see the results of a broad cross immunity against both H1N1 and H5N1.
That would be if (A) TPTB were actually wise and good and (B) it really worked. One study with a few people is not something I’ll jump and shout about. Waiting for more info...
There were also studies done showing that (some) people who got flu and/or vaxed may get a much worse immune reaction next time they encounter flu virus; it’s called something like Original Antigenic Sin. I’ve read stuff about that lately, too.
IMHO at this point no one knows; and if they do really know, they ain’t telling.
Niman got vaxed last year and got swine flu, and I think he got flu twice. He got vaxed again this year. I got swine flu twice (not tested but I am sure it was). I read more than a few accounts of vaxed people get the flu, and people getting flu twice. So my personal opinion is that this vax (both last year’s swine vax and this years, which are both based on May 2009 flu) aren’t very protective.
But, that brings up a whole ‘nother question. How protective is the regular seasonal vax? Since so few actually die of flu a year and so few are ever tested, how well does the regular flu vax work? The last head of the CDC, Julie Gerberding, left to become head of Merck Vax dept. Says a lot to me.
I wrote a little flu update summary for people I know. SOrt of covers a few basic things, if anyone wants me to post it, I will. I finished it 10 days ago.
Actually the CDC sends or used to send the American Lung Association figures of how many people died of flu each year, tested people. I’ve seen the list on a flu forum, probably don’t have it saved on my computer but I can look. The list I saw was for about 10 years and the average deaths from flu were something like 800 to 1200, the low number might have been around 600.
The larger numbers they toss out are merely excess deaths among old people from “illness” in winter, could be anything. It’s a bogus made up number for the purpose of getting people to take the vax, as far as I can tell. That way their buddies in the pharmacuetical industry make bucks.
And the huge fake numbers sure came in handy to soothe the populace about not “panicking” due to swine flu pandemic. The CDC people kept trotting out that “36,000 people die a year from flu” crap every chance they got.
Total liars.
The real, tested number of flu deaths normall is under 1000. And even those are 90% over 65 or around there.
They will not publicize how many actually died in the US (or the word, from the WHO) of swine flu. Nope, silent as the Sphinx.
Post your summary please.
Swine Flu Pandemic January 6 2010
Official Pandemic Over
Although the World Health Organization declared the swine H1N1 flu pandemic over in August 2010, it was still circulating in the Southern Hemisphere and causing many deaths, especially in India. As expected, it is now circulating in the Northern Hemisphere. The WHO director, Margaret Chan, speaks and acts for the interest of China*, not for the well being of the people of the world, but still the Health agencies of various countries, such as the US Center for Disease Control, accept her announcements as truthful and trustworthy. She prematurely announced the pandemic over, thus various Health agencies let down their guard. Previous flu pandemics lasted around 3 years, and then the flu strain gradually diminished in severity.
Real Flu Death Numbers
It is important to know that the CDC figure of “36,000 flu deaths a year”* * was finally admitted by them last summer to be a false number; but it was quoted widely to diminish the dangerous appearance of the pandemic swine flu. The 36,000 number is actually just the averaged yearly increase in general illness deaths over the winter season and few have any connection to flu; few or none of these averaged deaths are tested for flu, and most are elderly. The actual tested flu fatalities for normal years range between 600 to 1200 deaths a year (from figures of tested flu deaths sent from the CDC to an American Lung Association) , and 90% are aged over 65. There is a possibility that the 36,000 number is used as a way to increase vaccination rates for flu, as there is a revolving door between pharmaceutical companies and the CDC. In fact, the previous director of the CDC left the CDC to work for the Merck pharmaceutical company in their vaccine department.
Swine Flu Death Numbers – The Economy over safety
The swine H1N1 flu, on the other hand, was and continues to be especially virulent in young and middle aged people. The exact number of swine H1N1 fatalities for last year worldwide, or in the US, is unknown. The only number the CDC has made public for the US, last summer, was the estimate of roughly 7,000 -18,000 deaths, but admitted the figure would likely prove much higher. Since the beginning of the swine H1N1 pandemic they generally downplayed the virulence and danger of the flu, and even admitted that part of the mission of the CDC was to make sure the economy was not negatively impacted by the pandemic. The WHO has made a similar and clear statement –that they would make decisions about the pandemic taking into consideration political, social and economic impact. Therefore, policies such as travel quarantines or closing schools were not recommended due to the negative effect on the economy, thus insuring that swine flu spread more quickly.
Swine H1N1 – More virulent than regular flu<.b>
Even those who were infected with swine flu but survived, often had symptoms that were more severe and quite different from regular flu; such as organ failure (including kidneys, liver, heart and lungs), central nervous system impairment including brain lesions and paralysis, and many incurred lasting damage. Because of impairment to circulation, many flu victims suffered amputation of limbs. A noted virologist in England, John Oxford, recently said that swine H1N1 is not like regular flu, it gets deeper into the lungs, and requires more safety when working with it in the lab. Many who were infected with swine flu were ill for much longer time and took weeks or months to get well, and some had permanent lung or heart damage. Some have had permanent brain damage or suffered permanent or long term paralysis.
Swine Flu – Mutated - Tamiflu and Vaccine may not work well if at all
This year the swine H1N1 has mutated, as flu viruses are always notoriously unstable, switching genetic material with other strains, both human and animal. That is why people can get flu over and over again, because their immune systems don’t recognize the slightly different flu strains. There is much that is not known about flu viruses or how the body’s immune system reacts. For instance, research has been done showing that it is very possible that when a person has either had a vaccine or been infected by one variety of flu, if they then are exposed to a somewhat similar but mutated version of the same flu strain, their immune system may wildly overreact, which can cause very severe illness or death. The current vaccine was manufactured using a flu sample from May 2009 at beginning of the pandemic, and since the flu has changed, it is likely that the vaccine will not offer very much protection against swine H1N1, if any, and those who caught the flu last year may very well not have immunity against it this year. Even last year some people had swine flu twice, or were vaccinated and then still became infected. Now there have been people in the UK who were vaccinated and have died. The genetic markers denoting Tamiflu resistence are now showing up in flu samples in the UK.
Huge Upsurge in the UK starting in December
More three and a half weeks ago swine H1N1 again started spreading in the United Kingdom, primarily in southern England. Since it surfaced, every week has seen a huge increase in severe cases and fatalities. Last week, more than 800 patients were in Intensive Care Units, which is four times higher than the worst of the pandemic flu season last year, and flu is just starting to spread widely all over the country. As of Monday, January 3, 2011 - the number in ICU is now 1500, which is half the ICU beds in the country, almost doubling in one week. As of last week, at least 40 had died (some of who had been vaccinated), but public health officials have admitted that this number is merely a fraction of the flu fatalities, as not many are tested and therefore not counted as flu fatalities.*** Hospitals are now increasingly overwhelmed with the large number of severe flu cases and are stopping surgeries, closing the doors to visitors, and converting operation theaters and lounges to take care of the increasing number of serious flu patients. Some children’s wards are completely full and very sick children have had to be transported 100 miles to a hospital with openings. The health officials are giving public notices that people who are sick should not visit their doctors or go to the Emergency Departments but just stay home so as to avoid causing the heath system to collapse. Hospital officials have said that if it gets any worse the health care system will be overwhelmed and unable to care for all the sick. Most of the severe cases and fatalities are children, young and middle aged adults, and at least half were people with no underlying health problems.****
What to Expect
The swine H1N1 flu has mutated – as all flu viruses do – and it is doubtful that the vaccine will offer much protection, if any, and previous infection may also not be protective; in addition, increased Tamiflu resistence is likely or almost inevitable. (Before the swine flu pandemic, regular seasonal flu became Tamiflu resistant within a year due to genetic mutation, and swine H1N1, according to virologists, is following the same path.) Scientists can tell by studying the sequences of current samples how much and in what way the flu has changed; but the UK has not made public any flu sequences since early December, before this upsurge in severe cases and fatalities started. There is reason to believe that the government of the UK is withholding the current flu sequences in order to prevent fear, by hiding the real nature of the flu strain spreading in the UK. From the news, it appears that swine H1N1 may very likely have a higher CFR – Case Fatality Rate – than it did last winter. This more virulent strain will be spreading throughout the Northern Hemisphere in the coming weeks and months and in the last couple of weeks is causing increasing hospitalization and deaths in European, Middle Eastern and Asian countries as well.
*There is a lot of evidence about Chan but the short evidence is that she covered up the initial SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, as well as H5N1 outbreaks later, and has praised the health care system in North Korea, and the fact that the citizens there walk a lot and are not obese. They are starving to death in reality. The WHO Director before died under mysterious circumstances, and also there is evidence that China bribed a number of African countries with large amounts of money to vote for her as the director. She prematurely announced the end of the pandemic, which alarmed those who know that pandemics generally last at least two or three years, as the one in 1918, and in fact, people were still sick and dying when she made this announcement.
** Very recently, the CDC has replaced the “36,000 flu deaths a year” with “24,000”, even though that figure is also not based on facts or positive flu test results.
***Also, many patients who may test positive for flu are not counted among the fatalities since they also have pneumonia or suffer heart failure and thus flu is not considered the cause of death.
****They stretch the definition of “underlying problems” to include as many as possible, including slightly overweight and pregnant women. And now apparently, they are primarily testing or counting as positive those with underlying problems, so as not to alarm the public.
Since I finished writing this 10 days ago, there have been a few more developments. I will post them later, a few little updates and a link or two.
BTW, Henry Niman attributes the later arrival of "new and improved" swine flu the US because H3N2 is circulating a lot here; and when I asked him about this (he said that H3N2 was "buffering" the US), whether the US would not get the mutated swine flu here at all or just later, he said "later". There have already been some of the UK version in PA and I think another state; sequenced from fatalities. Monotreme on the PFI forum thinks or says he thinks because there was more vaxes here than in the UK. If that is so, time will tell.
Another development is that very recently, Japan, which had a lot of H3N2 (which is typically much more mild than swine flu), is all of a sudden getting a lot of swine.
Thanks for the ping!
Thanks lj for your summary report. Bump!
Fears over mutating swine flu virus that could render vaccine useless
By Mail On Sunday Reporter
Last updated at 10:47 AM on 9th January 2011
A research team has hurriedly been re-formed to investigate whether the swine flu virus has started to mutate in a way that will render the vaccine ineffective.
Senior Government scientists have already discovered slight genetic mutations in the H1N1 virus.
They are checking whether this is causing some people to be more severely affected, although there is no evidence at this stage to suggest the changes would stop the vaccine working or prevent the anti-viral drug Tamiflu from being effective.
Snip.
I still think this bug is meant to fight the H5N1 which would probably turn us back to a neolithic age if/when it jumps.
I find it hard to believe that anyone with the power to make it and spread it and manage it is that benevolent.
I guess we’ll just have to see how it shakes out.
I know I don’t want to get swine H1N1 again. Both times it was absolutely horrible.
Here’s a commentary by Niman today:
Commentary
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01181102/H1N1_CDC_Alert_2011.html
CDC Issues H1N1 Alert In United States
Recombinomics Commentary 14:10
January 18, 2011
consideration of antiviral treatment for any previously healthy, non high-risk symptomatic outpatient with confirmed or suspected influenza, based upon clinical judgment, if treatment can be initiated within 48 hours of illness onset.
The above comment is included in the recent CDC health alert on influenza antiviral treatment and diagnostic tests. This January 14, 2011 alert follows a significant outbreak of H1N1 in the UK and reports of increased H1N1 activity in the northern hemisphere.
Initial reports from the UK indicated most fatal cases were young adults without underlying conditions. Subsequent reports have focused on patients with underlying conditions, but the high frequency of fatal cases without underlying conditions raised concern.
A similar death cluster was reported in Lehigh, Pennsylvania and recently released sequences by the CDC demonstrated the presence of S186P in the identical HA sequences from the two Pennsylvania cases, which were closely related to UK sequences.
Moreover, one of the sequences, A/India/5103/2010, without changes at positions 156-159 was declared a low reactor, and this sequence had S186P and S188T. These two changes are widespread in the UK, with 22/41 cases having S188T and another 14/41 cases having S186P. In addition to the case in India, a sequence from Japan, A/KANAGAWA/74/2010, also had both changes, and the most recent sequence from Japan, A/NIIGATA/1581/2010 also had S188T.
Other combinations were seen in the UK and Bhutan. In the UK there were sequences with S188T combined with D190G (A/England/4640543/2010) and S186P combined with D190Y (A/England/4500186/2010). Similarly, A/Bhutan/72/2010 had S186P combined with A189T. These combinations are similar to the immunological escape of seasonal H1N1 associated with the fixing of H275Y in 2008/2009 which involved A193T combined with at least one change at positions 187, 189, or 196.
These genetic changes indicate the current vaccine, direct against A/California/7/2009 will have less than optimal efficacy as sequences with the above receptor binding domain changes emerge and dominate. As noted, 36/41 recent sequences from the UK had S188T or S186P, and these changes are rapidly spreading throughout the northern hemisphere.
The CDC alert does not mention these changes, but includes antiviral recommendations, which includes use in previously health young adults.
The current H1N1 vaccine target, A/California/2009, has remained unchanged since it was selected in the spring of 2009. It is currently recommended for the 2010/2011 season in the northern hemisphere, and is the target for the 2011 season in the southern hemisphere.
Recommendations for the 2011/2012 northern hemishere flu season will be made next month. A target change is long overdue.
These genetic changes indicate the current vaccine, direct against A/California/7/2009 will have less than optimal efficacy as sequences with the above receptor binding domain changes emerge and dominate. As noted, 36/41 recent sequences from the UK had S188T or S186P, and these changes are rapidly spreading throughout the northern hemisphere.
“non high-risk symptomatic outpatient”
So the secondary function is to weed out all “high-risk” from the populace by not treating them, the primary is to prep the younger populace for survival of H5N1 so we all don’t end up living la vida neolithic.
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