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California Unlikely to see a quake like Japan's
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 3/11/11 | David Perlman

Posted on 03/13/2011 2:57:49 PM PDT by americanophile

Earthquakes the size of the one that struck Japan on Friday are highly unlikely ever to hit the California coast, but smaller quakes along the San Andreas or Hayward faults could prove just as devastating, experts say.

No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.

The San Andreas, which runs for some 810 miles from Cape Mendocino to the Salton Sea, is the state's most dangerous fault because the magnitude of any earthquake is primarily dependent on the length of a fault's rupture zone, explained Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the USGS.

But the north and south segments of the fault are separated by a central stretch of about 100 miles between Hollister and Parkfield in Monterey County, and it is that section that should prevent any earthquake as powerful as the one that struck Japan on Friday. In the Hollister-Parkfield segment, the brittle rock of the Earth's upper crust "is lubricated like talcum powder," Stein said. The result, he said, is a steady creeping motion that acts to relieve the constant buildup of stress within the fault that otherwise could trigger a major temblor along the entire length of the fault.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: california; earthquake; sanandreas
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To: SumProVita

Downloaded EQuake3D and the Texas 3.8 is there, but for some reason this program isn’t showing anything in Europe. What do I need ?


41 posted on 03/13/2011 4:27:54 PM PDT by Paisan
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To: Paisan

USGS doesn’t show Europe. Try here: http://www.emsc-csem.org/#2


42 posted on 03/13/2011 4:32:34 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: americanophile
No temblor greater than a magnitude 8 is ever likely in California, say scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

Menlo Park is in SF- this is wishful and dangerous thinking. But what do journalists care? Let's feel good and pretend California as special powers protecting it. The 1906 quake is estimated as an 8 btw.
43 posted on 03/13/2011 4:34:45 PM PDT by Vision ("Did I not say to you that if you would believe, you would see the glory of God?" John 11:40)
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To: americanophile
Yeah, I'll trust the seismic advice of the paper whose political advice included endorsing Gavin Newsom.


44 posted on 03/13/2011 4:43:07 PM PDT by Dr. Sheldon Cooper (I'm not insane, my mother had me tested!)
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To: GOPJ

Yeah...lots of little quakes in the Greenbrier, AL area since the 8th. Ummmmmmm. I live in SoCal and I lived through the landers/big bear quake and northridge.


45 posted on 03/13/2011 5:32:13 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (Man the pitchforks and torches.......let the revolution begin)
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To: GOPJ

Yeah...lots of little quakes in the Greenbrier, AL area since the 8th. Ummmmmmm. I live in SoCal and I lived through the landers/big bear quake and northridge.


46 posted on 03/13/2011 5:32:31 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (Man the pitchforks and torches.......let the revolution begin)
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To: Conservative4Ever
God created the world....including our little planet...

......If Japan wasn't a wake-up call, I don't know what is.

Get your hearts ready with God, folks!

....destruction only takes a few minutes...then it's over....and too late!

I even heard Frank Luntz on Cavuto last night say....'but by the Grace of God there go I'--(or our nation)....in referring to the tragedy of the Japan quake.

Cavuto said....'those are profound words'.....

I grew up hearing & understanding those words......and believe them even more fully now.

47 posted on 03/13/2011 5:55:47 PM PDT by Guenevere (....)
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To: Conservative4Ever

I was 8 miles from the Landers, but it was ONLY a 7.4!


48 posted on 03/13/2011 6:03:01 PM PDT by opbuzz (Right way, wrong way, Marine way)
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To: SumProVita
Thanks - interesting collection of earthquakes ... right where you said they were... Here's the link to the earthquake program I'm using - it's free - a three dimensional earth with (almost) all the information... and it's beautiful.

http://www.wolton.net/quake.html

49 posted on 03/13/2011 6:14:09 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: americanophile
If the volcano in Yellowstone ever goes off, we can put our head between our legs and kiss our butts goodby...

So called experts than say a earthquake like Japan cannot happen in California should be told to shut their mouths. No one can predict the size or place of such events, they just think they can...The earth doesn't read the papers..

50 posted on 03/13/2011 6:16:43 PM PDT by goat granny
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To: Conservative4Ever

You lived through some bad ones... Florida with our hurricanes is starting to look good - well, until the season starts again... Glad you’re still with us, Conservative3Ever.


51 posted on 03/13/2011 6:19:29 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: GOPJ

This is awesome! Thank you so much...


52 posted on 03/13/2011 6:40:19 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: SumProVita

I thought you’d like it.


53 posted on 03/13/2011 6:52:44 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: americanophile
"But the next big quake in the Bay Area on either the San Andreas or the Hayward will be a $200 billion disaster," warned Thomas M. Brocher, who leads the USGS region's efforts at preparedness for the next Big One.

I used to think of "the big one" in California as a disaster beyond imagining in all respects. Thanks to Obama/Pelosi/Reid, I now see the dollar cost as a small fraction of Stimulus, TARP, ObamaCare, or any of a number of other man induced disasters, if the $200B number is anywhere near the real cost of the big one. The loss of life could be horrendous, but the financial impact would be minor compared with a true American catastrophe:


54 posted on 03/13/2011 7:09:31 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: goat granny

For sure about Yellowstone.


55 posted on 03/13/2011 9:54:00 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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To: LibertarianLiz

...oh, haha. Ya, I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know.


56 posted on 03/13/2011 10:00:16 PM PDT by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives"-Ataturk)
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