6 Predictions for 2011 Black Friday!

Washington, D.C. (September 13, 2011) -- In roughly 10 weeks, Americans will crowd into retail stores looking for 'Black Friday' bargains on everything from appliances to apparel.

Retailers traditionally offer deep discounts on the day after Thanksgiving (Nov. 25), better known as Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

The discount prices are often available for one day only -- and may include restrictions on time and supply. Discount hunters also have to contend with the frenzied atmosphere of Black Friday which some shoppers view as a day of combat.

But here at TVPredictions.com, we believe in keeping our readers ahead of the game with forecasts and analysis that tell you what will happen before it actually does.

So with that in mind, here are six predictions on discounts you will see on TV-related items this Black Friday -- and how retailers and TV makers will market the event to consumers.

1. LCD Prices Will Be The Lowest Ever Recent studies have shown that LCD TV shipments have reached their lowest level in years. Due to the sluggish economy and overflowing inventory already at retail, LCD TV makers have concluded that set sales will be flat for some time.

Consequently, you can expect LCD makers to offer some deep discounts on LCD HDTVs during the 2011 holiday shopping season in an effort to clear out the current inventory and put the industry in position to have a strong 2012.

I think you will see name-brand 40-inch LCD HDTVs available for $299; 42-inch LCD HDTVs will be sold for under $400 and 47-inch sets will go for under $500. Moving up the ladder, larger-screen 3D LCD and LED HDTVs will be discounted by up to 50 percent and they will come in attractive bundles (free 3D goggles included with some sales; 3D movies included as well.)

2. 3D TV Prices Will Drop Like a Rock I won't bore you (again) with my thoughts on why 3D TV sales have not taken off. Let's just acknowledge that they haven't and move on, okay?

Okay. So what will 3D TV makers do to get Black Friday shoppers excited about buying 3D sets? Slash prices. Yes, you'll see current model 3D TVs discounted by 25-35 percent and the offer will include such bundled items as a free extra pair of 3D goggles.

Like the LCD makers, 3D TV companies need to clear out some inventory so they can concentrate on selling new models in 2012, likely Smart TVs rather than 3D sets. So I think you'll see 55-inch name-brand 3D LED/LCD HDTVs available for as little as $1,299 (some now cost closer to $2,000.)

3. Some Retail Stores Will Kick Off Black Friday Early Like last year, you'll see some retail stores, such as Target and Best Buy, launch some early 'Black Friday' sales in October and early November. The idea is to get consumers in the shopping mood before the full-scale Black Friday on the day after Thanksgiving.

4. Plasma 720p HDTVs Will Be the Best Bargains Although TV makers now manufacture 1080p sets almost exclusively, there are still plenty of 720p sets sitting on shelves at retail -- and the warehouse shelves of ecommerce web sites. The TV companies would like to get these sets out of the market once and for all (the 720p Plasmas are priced cheaper) so expect some great deals on 720p Plasma sets. For instance, 42-inch 720p Plasma sets will likely be available for under $300 while some larger screen sets will carry 40-50 percent discounts.

5. There Will Be Big Discounts on Network Blu-ray Players CE companies are anxious to get consumers to buy the new 'Smart TV' Blu-ray players which enable users to access streaming services such as Netflix over home networks. The Network Blu-ray player brings in more revenue to the CE company than the traditional Blu-ray player because the company can strike partnership deals with firms such as Netflix.

However, many Americans are still reluctant to buy the Network Blu-ray players because they seem too confusing or technically imposing. Consequently, I predict that CE companies will offer some network Blu-ray players for as little as $69 this Black Friday and perhaps lower. At those prices, reluctant consumers will be more likely to take a chance.

The no-frills Blu-ray player will also be had for under $50 and I predict that some enterprising retailer will sell one for $39.

6. Online Sites Will Get More Aggressive in Pricing For several years, brick-and-mortar retailers had Black Friday while ecommerce sites had Cyber Monday, the online Black Friday equivalent that takes place three days later. There wasn't too much competition between the two in terms of setting prices and comparison marketing.

However, the tough times have changed everything. Look for ecommerce sites such as Amazon to start slashing prices on TV-related items (and other products) this month and even more so in October. In fact, we're already seeing some evidence of that at Amazon where many TVs are now being priced for 40 percent off the list price.

The online sites, which have increased their holiday revenue every year over the last 10 years or so, want consumers to think of buying online first. So they will try to get them early with attractive offerings before the brick-and-mortar retailers even roll out their first Sunday circular.

More Black Friday Predictions!
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (September 15, 2011) — Earlier this week, I made six predictions on what prices you can expect on HDTVs and related products during the 2011 Black Friday shopping rush.

However, there are other sites that follow the shopping phenomenon closely and they have also made some predictions for the big event which takes place November 25, the day after Thanksgiving.

But before I tell you about them, a little background: Retailers traditionally offer deep discounts on the day after Thanksgiving, better known as Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

The discount prices are often available for one day only — and may include restrictions on time and supply. Discount hunters also have to contend with the frenzied atmosphere of Black Friday which some shoppers view as a day of combat.

So here is what some Black Friday-oriented sites are predicting for the 2011 Black Friday rush:

DealsBlackFriday2011.net
“In 2011 the best possible deal will be for a 32-Inch Full HD LED TV with a price as low as a couple of hundreds of dollars. Also 2011 might be the year in which HD ready TVs will be eliminated from the Walmart Ads list.”

TheBlackFriday.com
42-inch LCD HDTV for $349
47-inch LCD HDTV for $499
55-inch LCD HDTV for $799
LED 37-inch 1080p LCD HDTV $499
LED 47-inch 1080p LCD HDTV $749
LED 55-inch 1080p LCD HDTV for $1299.99

BlackFriday.info
“Amazon is giving shoppers a headstart on Black Friday shopping. The Amazon Black Friday sale starts on Monday, November 21st, 2011. While Amazon hasn’t released info on which Black Friday deals they’ll be offering, we know from previous years that Amazon doesn’t disappoint. They offer great Black Friday deals and match Walmart’s low prices on lots of items. We especially liked their Gold Box sales in 2010, with new deals every day on items such as GPS, digital cameras and toys.”

ThanksgivingBlackFridayAds.com
“The low-end 32 inch full HDTV is sale on Amazon.com for $300. Experts expect that the 32 inch HDTV with 1080p resolution to be offered for $198 (on Black Friday). Both Target and Wal-Mart are expected to offer some incredible deals as well as some of the online stores. Consumers should await the Black Friday advertisements to find the best deals.

“Last year, during the Black Friday sale, the 32 inch Emerson HDTV was sold for $198 from Wal-Mart. Experts expect that Amazon, Wal-Mart and Best Buy will try to do something more to beat this price.”

Pinging the HDTV list..

Black Friday: 42” HDTVs For $249?
http://www.tvpredictions.com/blackpredict091911.htm

Washington, D.C. (September 19, 2011) — Retailers will likely sell 42-inch LCD HDTVs for as low as $249 this Black Friday, predicts GottaDeal.com, the web site that tracks online and retail discounts.

The site, which annually makes Black Friday predictions, says the 42-inch sets will likely be available for between $249 and $299. Sets in that price range, however, will “be 720p and will lack features found in more expensive models,” the site said today in a press release.

Retailers traditionally offer deep discounts on the day after Thanksgiving, better known as Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. (Black Friday this year will be November 25.)

In other predictions, GottaDeal.com says 3D TVs will see some “deep discounts” on older models this Black Friday. However, the site notes that post-Black Friday sales may offer even better deals on all HDTVs.

“While Black Friday is a great time to buy the loss-leader, lower-end HDTVs, for consumers looking for a deal on a higher quality, name-brand HDTV, the best time to buy is typically in early to mid-December as retailers ramp up the deals to get those last minute sales before the holidays,” GottaDeal.com says. “And even if consumers miss those deals, the pre-Super Bowl TV deals are also very attractive.”

GottaDeal.com also writes that it may be more important than ever to shop early on Black Friday due to lower inventories.

And what will be hot this Black Friday?

“It’s likely going to be a combination of the items such as laptops & tablets, HDTVs, toys, video games and home items,” GottaDeal.com says. “With the economy still down, many households are looking to improve their home rather than spend money on vacations or other expenditures. Therefore we expect those items such as appliances, kitchen items, lawn & garden, furniture and bedding to be popular. Many shoppers will be looking to save money on the ‘basics’ and that will likely be reflected in the deals shown in the ads this year.”

Black Friday: 46-Inch LCD HDTVs: $399?
By Swanni

http://www.tvpredictions.com/dealforecast092111.htm

Washington, D.C. (September 21, 2011) — Another day, another set of Black Friday predictions from a web site that tracks online and retail deals. This time it’s from DealNews.com and the site is making some bold forecasts for high-def prices on the big shopping day.

For instance, says DealNews.com, you can expect that 40 to 42-inch 1080p LCD HDTVs will be available for $319. (The web site, GottaDeal.com, earlier this week predicted that 42-inch, 720p HDTVs could be had for as little as $249 on Black Friday.)

In other predictions, DealNews says 46-inch 1080p LCD TVs will go for $399; 55-inch 1080p LCD sets will be available for $549; 55-inch 3D LCD HDTVs will go for $999; while 60-inch 1080p LCD TVs will sell for $699.

For background, retailers traditionally offer deep discounts on the day after Thanksgiving, better known as Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. (Black Friday this year will be November 25.)

DealNews predicts that Black Friday retailers will sell Blu-ray players w/Netflix Internet streaming for $45 and Blu-ray movies for $5 each. The Roku HD 2 set-top will go for $60, the site predicts.

http://dealnews.com/black-friday/predictions/2.html

Black Friday HDTV Predictions for 2011

HDTVs
As we’ve said before, the best time to buy a new HDTV is usually around the holidays. That will hold true again, and numerous sizes will hit new definitive lows this Black Friday. In fact, as a general trend, most sizes will drop 15% to 20% below their previous lowest price in the months leading up to the shopping holiday.
Before we begin, let’s get some conventional wisdom out of the way:

1. Think twice before buying a 3D TV. We made this argument last year, and it still holds true — although with slightly less severity. 3D TVs overall have significantly dropped in price since last year, but when you take into account our price predictions for a 55” 3D HDTV and a standard 55” HDTV, the deluxe 3D will still cost you almost double. Additionally, 3D content is scarce (and more expensive than standard content) and 3D glasses are another additional expense if you want more than what’s usually bundled with the set.

2. Don’t worry about whether you should buy a TV that streams Netflix or YouTube. A slew of media receivers are available that will do the same but cost less than $100. Buy the best TV you can, and if it’s missing this feature, add a cheap media streaming box. Besides, you may regret tying your TV to something as fleeting as Netflix, a company that’s recently raised customer ire via a price hike and the splintering of its DVD business.

3. Experts advise you to buy the biggest TV you can afford. Penny pinchers look at such advice with skepticism, but in this case, the conventional wisdom is right. Have you ever heard a friend complain about his or her new TV being too large? Of course, a 60” TV in your guest bath might be a little gauche, so buy something that’s appropriate for its room.

4. You don’t need to see a TV to judge its picture. The bright overhead fluorescent lights at a Best Buy or Costco — and we’ve all seen those lousy, grainy signals those stores send to 20 TVs at once — make it nearly impossible to discern differences. Rely instead on reviews and your social networks.

5. LED-Backlit LCD HDTVs may be more expensive than standard LCD HDTVs, but they’re quickly becoming the standard. Moreover, some LED models offer a superior picture (deeper blacks and truer colors) and thinness (down to 1” thick). These benefits vary by model and manufacturer, so we suggest doing a little bit of research before jumping on a deal just because it’s for an LED-backlit LCD HDTV.

On to the predictions! As consumers become more interested in buying spare flat-screen HDTVs for secondary viewing rooms — like bedrooms, dens, etc. — there will be more interest in trim 32” 1080p LCD HDTVs. Last year, we didn’t see enough sets of this size throughout the year to generate a prediction. But in the relevant months leading up to Black Friday last year, and throughout the year since then, there have been a plethora of these budget-friendly models. Thus we’re able to confidently predict that you’ll find one for $199, about a 15% drop from the lowest prices we saw this summer.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the mega 60” 1080p LCD HDTV for some serious home theater entertainment. Again, we weren’t able to offer a prediction last year, but this time around, we’ve got the data to go aggressive: Believe it or not, we estimate that these sets will drop to as low as $699. Sounds too low? Although several of this year’s very best deals have hovered just above the $1,000 mark, we saw a deal in August for $800 at your local Best Buy (since expired). This would suggest that prices will get even lower for the rock-bottom holiday, and hence our mouth-watering prediction. If it pans out, it’ll be nearly a 50% drop from last Black Friday.

But perhaps you’re looking for a TV sized somewhere in between. For a 40” to 42” 1080p LCD HDTV, we expect to see prices starting at $319, which is a slightly more modest drop from the prices we’ve seen over the summer, but still an all-time low. Prices on 46” 1080p LCD HDTVs for most of the year have nicely paralleled those for the smaller 42” sets last year, which would suggest we’ll see a comparable Black Friday price of $399.

As for 55” 1080p LCD HDTVs, which generally provide the best TV bang for your buck, our data is a bit trickier to interpret. The price lows we saw this summer are about equal to those for 46” sets last year, so we are inclined to predict that 55” models will start at $549 this year. However, we did see one for $559 already in August (an outlier amongst every other deal we’ve seen), so there’s a slight chance they could go even lower around this shopping season.

So how successful were our predictions for these three categories last year? Well, our prediction for the smallest size was exactly on the money, and we were just a dollar over with our prediction for the largest. Our guesstimation for the 46” to 47” range was off by 10%, just barely within our accuracy tolerance.

Some closing words: 3D sets have dropped in price significantly since last Black Friday, but they’re still an expensive premium. Our data suggests that 55” 1080p 3D LCD HDTVs will fall to only $999 this Black Friday, which is 45% more than a standard set of the same size.

This may change however if you opt for 3D plasma. In fact, we saw a 60” 3D Plasma HDTV for just $979 in August, which is already below our prediction for 55” 3D. You’d be wise to keep in mind plasma options in general while shopping for large TVs. They may represent the best bargain for something sizeable, as the above 3D example illustrates, but we haven’t seen enough deals to be able to make a definitive prediction. But there’s a good chance that 60” plasmas may dip lower than comparable LCD models, and in some cases they may rival some 55” LCD HDTV deals pricewise, all while offering greater screen real estate.

Summary: Black Friday Predictions for HDTVs
•32” 1080p LCD HDTV for $199
•40” to 42” 1080p LCD HDTV for $319
•46” 1080p LCD TV for $399
•55” 1080p LCD HDTV for $549
•55” 1080p 3D LCD TV for $999
•60” 1080p LCD TV for $699

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