Posted on 09/20/2011 3:51:51 PM PDT by LucyT
I used the “prediction” mode and came up with this...
The next orbit that will pass over US territory crosses over what appears to be the Florida-Alabama border area and goes right up the edge of the Eastern Seaboard. This will go ‘feet dry’ overhead at a predicted time of 8:55pm Eastern.
The next orbit to cross the US will enter over New Mexico at around 10:35pm Eastern and will exit over Minnesota.
The final orbit to cross US territory enters over central/northern California at 9:20pm Pacific time and exits over Montana.
Since NASA has already said they don’t believe the UARS will last that long, these may be moot predictions, but there you go.
CORRECTION: The last sentence should read:”Since NASA thinks the satellite will come down AFTER this, the predictions may be moot.”
If I advance the orbital path further, the UARS will make 2 more passes over the US. The next orbit over the US will enter over North Dakota at about 5:20am Eastern and exit over Georgia.
The final expected orbit that will enter the US will come in over Washington state...technically passing right over my house..at about 3:55am Pacific. It will pass over most of the Rocky Mountain states and exit the US going right down the Texas-Mexico border out over the Gulf.
NOW, HERE’S THE FUN PART....
NASA says it’ll come down tomorrow afternoon...exactly when they’re not yet sure. However, I advanced the orbital track to tomorrow afternoon and found...
From 3:40pm to 4:00 Eastern, the orbital track will run from southern Chile, over most of Argentina, and exit through Brazil, basically right up the eastern coast of South America. AND THEN...
From 4:15-4:25 Eastern, the UARS will enter over Portugal...and run right over the population centers of Western Europe. Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, Belarus, the Ukraine, and Russia.
Yikes.
If the orbit continues, it’ll go over much of Russia, down through Mongolia into China, right down the length of the Phillipines, and finally over eastern Australia.
Betcha some folks in Europe are a little nervous now, eh?
Jim Saueressig II
Image taken:
Sep. 20, 2011
Location:
Burlington, Ks
Details:
"I captured the UARS satellite on the last forecast visible pass before it's expected re-entry for my location. It was still easily visible in spite of the moonlight and the twilight of the sunrise. It was moving pretty fast but the tumble and associated flares were very apparent."
RE-ENTRY ALERT: NASA's UARS satellite is making its final orbits around Earth, tumbling and flashing brightly as it descends toward a Sept. 23rd re-entry. Amateur astronomer Jim Saueressig II caught the bus-sized satellite flying over Burlington, Kansas, on Sept. 20th . "It was easily visible in spite of the moonlight and the twilight of the sunrise. The tumble and associated flares were very apparent," he says.
. . . . (See Photo at Post # 66 by Jim Saueressig II.)
####
Satellite tracking expert Ted Molczan has used USSTRATCOM's orbital elements of UARS to predict a decay time "late on Sep 23, roughly between 18:00 and 22:00 UTC. In the event it decays during that period, then it will follow the approximate ground track shown on Map."
"There is still potential for the estimated time of decay to shift somewhat before it begins to narrow down," cautions Molczan.
The disintegration of UARS is expected to produce a fireball that could be visible even in broad daylight. Not all of the spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere, however; according to a NASA risk assessment, as many as 26 potentially hazardous pieces of debris could be scattered along a ground track some 500 miles long. The same report puts the odds of a human casualty at 1 in 3200.
.
Go to Link, and Click on the map to view ground tracks corresponding to this interval:
From the spacewatch link, it looks to be a close call, but Barry Soretoro’s plan to bring it down on his Indonesian records has been foiled.
On THIS THREAD in posts 50, 51, 52, & 54, I put up screen shots of the expected orbital tracks for that time period. The track in post 51, which will be in the 3 o'clock hour on the East Coast, is the scary one. That track takes it across South America, across the Atlantic...and right straight over Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Belarus and the populated parts of Russia. Fact is, Madrid, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, and even Moscow are all VERY near the track on that pass.
Considering that NASA says the debris field could be 500 miles long....
Yah.
Like I said in another thread...I'll betcha there are some folks at NASA who are getting religion right now, PRAYING that sucker doesn't come down on that track.
(Oh...and later on in that same track it goes through central China, the length of the Phillipines, and over eastern Australia near Sydney. Oh, fun.)
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