Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Do Latest Solar Studies Confirm Upcoming Global Cooling?
Watts Up With That? ^ | February 13, 2012 | Guest post by Matti Vooro

Posted on 02/13/2012 11:43:49 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Do Latest Solar Studies Confirm Upcoming Global Cooling?

Posted on by

Guest post by Matti Vooro

English: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/...

Image via Wikipedia

I fully support the findings of  Jan –Erik Solheim , Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum and their very recent paper called The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24  dated February 2012. The abstract reads:

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 ◦C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

Before finding the above paper on WUWT, I had recently done a similar and slightly different analysis.

I took the Annual sunspot numbers for each year since 1900 and noted the solar maximums and solar minimums. I also noted all the years around the solar maximums that had sunspot numbers over say 60-70.  These solar active periods around the solar maximums can last as many as 3-5 years . Then I lagged the data by 9 years. Then I looked at the global temperature anomalies Hadcrut3gl for the all the actual years and noted the associated and lagged sunspot numbers. I then added and noted the El Nino active years using the ONI index.

I discovered that global temperatures were rising during the years around the lagged solar active period around the solar maximum and they were down during the period around the lagged solar minimum. Also there were El Ninos at the beginning or during the lagged active sun or solar active or maximum period.  In another words  the sun really affects the atmosphere not in the same cycle but during the next cycle or about 9 years later . It would appear that the extra solar radiation around solar maximums, heats the surface waters of the major oceans especially the Pacific and Atlantic. The warm water is then transported by the ocean conveyor belt deeper into the ocean waters and down swelled and conveyed around the globe. It reappears as warm upwelling along the South American  west coast [and other upwelling locations] and  ultimately  contributes  to the  warming of the  EL Nino area Pacific waters  and modifies the  PDO spatial patterns  or warming to put more warmer water along the west coast of North America .

Similar event happens in the Atlantic as indicated by the AMO. The longer solar cycles means fewer solar active periods or maximums and less heating 9 years later. A series of short solar cycles in a row will cause more frequent heating and the PDO and AMO will both turn positive or warm simultaneously causing what we now refer to as global warming. The extended global cooling happens when there are series of longer solar cycles with lower maximums.  Co2 seems to have little or negligible effect on these large natural cycles. Natural cycles will always dwarf any minor warming from manmade greenhouse gases.

Thus our long term climate  is all in the cycles of  sun lagged  about 9 [ 9-11]years later in its effect and  interacting with the oceans  which then in turn affect our atmosphere 9-11 year later.

Since we are now in the equivalent lagged year[2012-9=2003] and will next experience the solar effects of the decline of solar cycle #23 [the solar  period of  2000 to 2008 ], we can expect cooler weather for at least 6 years   plus another nine years   after the next  warming effect of  the  solar active period of  cycle #24 [ maximum around  2013  to 2014.] So I see no significant warming for 20 years at least [2030 earliest]. This is what ocean cycles like PDO predict and what the 60 year climate cycle predicts but now we may possibly have one of many hypothesis of how the sun does all this.

The El Nino around 2009-2010 was the effect of the last solar maximum of cycle #23 [around 200-2001].

This brief article was meant to  continue the debate about the exact mechanism of how our sun affects our global climate It does not answer all the questions and may pose others.



TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: climatechange; climategate; climategate2; globalcooling; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
96 Responses to Do Latest Solar Studies Confirm Upcoming Global Cooling?
1 posted on 02/13/2012 11:43:54 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
1) We're all going to die
2) We need to de-industrialize the West
3) We need to invest in green technology
4) We need to raise taxes
2 posted on 02/13/2012 11:47:53 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (I am pro-Jesus, anti-abortion, pro-limited government, anti-GOP.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Al Gore on suicide watch.


3 posted on 02/13/2012 11:48:27 AM PST by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: beethovenfan

Oh no! The end is nigh!. Al Gore is chilling! Someone quick send him back to Warm World.


4 posted on 02/13/2012 11:55:20 AM PST by formosa (Formosa)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

This won’t slow the global warming nuts one bit. They’ll try to raise taxes and institute “social justice” before the cooling begins, then claim victory.


5 posted on 02/13/2012 11:55:57 AM PST by youngidiot (Hear Hear!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ClearCase_guy
1) We're all going to die
2) We need to de-industrialize the West
3) We need to invest in green technology
4) We need to raise taxes

I would rearrange the list to:

1) We need to raise taxes
2) We need to de-industrialize the West
3) We need to invest in green tecnology
4) We're all going to die

Thus, if we are all going to die anyway why bother with the rest? So I say eat, drink and be happy! I'll have another Long Island iced tea and pass the chips.

6 posted on 02/13/2012 11:56:49 AM PST by mc5cents
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster; landsbaum; Signalman; NormsRevenge; steelyourfaith; Lancey Howard; ...

fyi


7 posted on 02/13/2012 11:59:32 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; marvlus; ApplegateRanch; Berlin_Freeper; Genesis defender; golux; ...
Thanx for the ping Ernest_at_the_Beach !

 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

8 posted on 02/13/2012 12:27:13 PM PST by steelyourfaith (Expel the Occupy White House squatters !!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I hope so. I REALLY need some justification for that snowmobile. Especially as lame as this winter has been up here.


9 posted on 02/13/2012 12:30:27 PM PST by Dead Corpse (Steampunk- Yesterday's Tomorrow, Today)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

In all seriousness, this is very reliable science. Solar minimums have preceded temperature reductions across the board. We likely won’t see a mini-ice-age like we did in the middle ages, as much of that was due to heavy volcanic activity in the 12th-14th centuries.

Industrialization cannot produce the sort of atmospheric “black out” that comes from normal geocentric processes. Man produces such a miniscule amount of “pollution,” that Earth’s natural scrubbers can do a fine job alone.

Matter of fact, I’ve seen some global cooling/ice age stuff on History/NatGeo lately that makes me wonder if the Liberals at those stations are going to preempt the coming “cold apocalypse.” It’s funny to watch them squirm. They can’t just chalk it up to nature doing what nature does.


10 posted on 02/13/2012 12:37:57 PM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rarestia
See this related thread I posted right after this one:

German skeptics Lüning and Vahrenholt respond to criticism (Authors of new Book on AGW scam)

Regarding the Cooling Sun.

11 posted on 02/13/2012 1:22:52 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: ClearCase_guy

But isn’t AGW a religion now? Can’t I live forever if I believe in AGW, veganism, Hope and Change?


12 posted on 02/13/2012 2:36:59 PM PST by lormand (A Government who robs Peter to pay Paul, will always have the support of Paul)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Bump for later reading


13 posted on 02/13/2012 3:42:40 PM PST by SuziQ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; ...

Thanks Ernest.


14 posted on 02/13/2012 7:09:53 PM PST by SunkenCiv (FReep this FReepathon!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

The Global Warming Hoax is Now Killing People

Global Warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News Site

Latest from Greenie Watch

Latest from Real Climate

Latest from Climate Depot

Latest from Junk Science

Latest from Terra Daily

15 posted on 02/13/2012 7:21:09 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Occupy DC General Assembly: We are Marxist tools. WE ARE MARXIST TOOLS!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Believable proofs keep pouring in as to how we may be ready for a mini ice age. Taint going to be a nice thing to have to go through.


16 posted on 02/13/2012 8:30:36 PM PST by Marine_Uncle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Add me to your ping list, please.


17 posted on 02/13/2012 8:46:07 PM PST by citizen (The Dims will all unite for Zero. We must soon unite behind our challenger and back him to victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Dead Corpse

You won’t be able to afford the gas for it, anyhow.


18 posted on 02/14/2012 4:19:46 AM PST by wolfcreek (Perry to Obama: Adios, MOFO!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Many of you know that I have been writing, about exactly this type of mechanism to account for Earth’s temperature, on FR for the last decade or thereabouts. I have favored a somewhat shorter lag time, but have no quibbles with this proposed 9yr lag. The evidence is so clear that I honestly don’t understand how the IPCC-supporting alarmists are able to honestly maintain that CO2 is largely responsible for the 20th century warming. Crimeny: for the whole second half of the century, Sol was “the warmest it has been for the last 8000 years”, as Solanki and others published around a decade ago. The IPCC ignoring that rather pertinent fact in attempting explanations of temperature is massively delusional, and doing so because they don’t understand mechanisms as to how it could possibly affect temperatures so much is a poor excuse.

I have always believed that the poor immediate correlations were a function of ocean heat transport, which is clearly chaotic. However Svensmark’s cosmic ray mechanism, and Lndzen/Spencer’s tropical clouds mechanism (which may be linked) were welcome additions to the mix of theoretical possibilities for me. No matter what the actual reasons, it is more and more clear that changing CO2 levels account for only a small proportion of the temperature changes of Earth.


19 posted on 02/14/2012 5:30:29 AM PST by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wolfcreek

Gonna distill me some legislators and greenie activists. Oughta keep me in fuel for a good long while.


20 posted on 02/14/2012 6:03:16 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Steampunk- Yesterday's Tomorrow, Today)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: lormand

In the Religion of Heat, one is one’s own God - more powerful than nature. So let it be written. So let it be done.


21 posted on 02/15/2012 12:45:28 PM PST by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson