IEA Sees Renewable Energy Growth Accelerating Over Next Five Years

Renewable power generation is expected to continue its rapid growth over the next five years, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that acknowledges the coming-of-age of the renewable energy sector. The report says that despite economic uncertainties in many countries, global power generation from hydropower, solar, wind, and other renewable sources is projected to increase by more than 40% to almost six 400 terawatt hours (TWh)—or roughly one-and-a-half times current electricity production in the US.

The study marks the first time the IEA has devoted a medium-term report to renewable power sources, a recognition of the dynamic and increasing role of renewable energy in the global power mix. The study examines in detail 15 key markets for renewable energy, which currently represent about 80% of renewable generation, while identifying and characterizing developments that may emerge in other important markets. It completes a series of IEA medium-term market reports also featuring oil, natural gas, and coal. Like the others, it presents a forecast of global developments and detailed country projections over the next five years.

The new study, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, says that renewable electricity generation should expand by 1 840 TWh between 2011 and 2017, almost 60% above the 1 160 TWh growth registered between 2005 and 2011. Renewable generation will increasingly shift from the OECD to new markets, with non-OECD countries accounting for two-thirds of this growth. Of the 710 GW of new global renewable electricity capacity expected, China accounts for almost 40%. Significant deployment is also expected in the US, India, Germany, and Brazil, among others.

This growth is underpinned by the maturing of a portfolio of renewable energy technologies, in large part due to supportive policy and market frameworks in OECD countries. However, rapidly increasing electricity demand and energy security needs in recent years have been spurring deployment in many emerging markets—both large and small. These new deployment opportunities are creating a virtuous cycle of improved global competition and cost reductions.

“Renewable energy is expanding rapidly as technologies mature, with deployment transitioning from support-driven markets to new and potentially more competitive segments in many countries,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said during the launch. “Given the emergence of a portfolio of renewable sources as a crucial pillar of the global energy mix, market stakeholders need a clear understanding of the major drivers and barriers to renewable deployment. Based on these factors, this report forecasts global renewable development and, in so doing, provides a key benchmark for both public and private decision makers.”

The report’s release comes amid profound changes and the uncertainties associated with a cautious macroeconomic outlook. First, governments in several key markets are deliberating significant changes to renewable policies and deeper electricity market reforms as renewable deployment scales up. Second, the cost and availability of financing will act as a key variable, with a need for more investment sources and structures. Finally, some parts of the renewable industry are going through a period of dramatic upheaval, with supply chains restructuring and shifting geographically while delivering cost reductions. Ultimately, such a consolidation should lead to a more mature and robust renewable sector.

The report presents detailed forecasts for renewable energy generation and capacity for eight technologies—hydropower, bioenergy for power, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), geothermal, and ocean power. This first edition focuses on renewable energy in the electricity sector, though it also examines solar thermal heating.

Hydropower continues to account for the majority of renewable generation and it registers the largest absolute growth (+730 TWh) of any single renewable technology over 2011–17, largely driven by non-OECD countries.

Non-hydropower renewable technologies continue to scale up quickly. Between 2011 and 2017, generation from these technologies increases by over 1 100 TWh, with growth equally split between OECD and non-OECD countries.

Onshore wind, bioenergy, and solar PV see the largest increases, respectively, in generation after hydropower. Offshore wind and CSP grow quickly from low bases. Geothermal continues to develop in areas with good resources. Ocean technologies take important steps towards commercialization.

Well, for one thing they include hydropower, which while it’s renewable, is not exactly new.

But don’t discount the potential of solar in areas like Sub-Saharan Africa with a low-quality power grid or none at all. Scaling up there might be reasonable with solar, because of the costs of grid development.

Here east of the Mississippi , hydro is the best idea for “green energy” there is. Unfortunately the watermelons are in a race to free the rivers as fast as they can.

New generator technology means small retrofits can produce surprising amounts of electricity from dams with as little as 8 or 10 feet of head. Even in the heart of Michigan liberalism two new small hydro generators are being installed on existing dams on the Huron river in Ann Arbor. (That doesn’t mean they don’t want every other dam removed)

Another dam advantage appeared with the Embridge oil spill on the Kalamazoo river. The oil didn’t rush downriver the way they said it would because there are several dams between the spill and Lake Michigan.

Wind and solar are not a good reliable source of power. Solar and wind cannot be stored in sufficient quantity to work with lost of wind or sunlight. I totally believe in renewable power and as soon as private industry gears up with better technology, count me out.

Out of curiosity I've been looking at the feasibility report on the Argo and Geddes dams in Ann Arbor Michigan. I wonder how often wind and solar exceed their capacity like these dams would do some 28% of the time. (With excess meaning water dumped over the spillway without generating power)

HYDROELECTRIC REDEVELOPMENT ARGO AND GEDDES DAMS FEASIBILITY STUDY CITY OF ANN ARBOR (pdf)

Another good thing that happened today was that our state senate passed a bill that eliminates the need for a DOE permit to generate under 1 megawatt on existing dams in Michigan.

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