Posted on 09/14/2012 12:56:16 PM PDT by pabianice
66.9% chance.
Today's change: up $.21 to $66.9
There’s a huge difference between predicting election results and predicting SCOTUS decisions, as there is much much more publicly-available information concerning elections than there is about SCOTUS deliberations. Historically, Intrade has been pretty accurate about elections (though it’s still too early for Intrade to be accurate in this cycle).
I think a lot of these traders on Intrade are mostly influenced by the media and polls that are being embraced by the media.
If you were to close your eyes, forget chick fil-a and the race of 2010 and rely on the mainstream media love fest happening right now, then you would certainly predict Obama to win.
BINGO!! I agree!!
Everything right except Romney.
"we have to elect Romney no matter what his negatives might be...."
Speak for your self. I'll never vote Romney.
Lol, checking my credentials huh? There shouldn’t even be a battle to fight, that is the entire point. I honestly believe this ME thing isn’t a lot different from the 2008 financial meltdown. About this time four years ago, Obama was doing well in the polls only on financial matters. Shazam! The US is hit with a financial crisis, which played right into his one strength. Fast forward, just four years later, Obama is winning all the polls regarding his “foreign policy”. What do we have, yep, a foreign crisis. I know I sound loony but I don’t believe in coincidences.
Might also add, the financial meltdown of 2008 happened during the same week of September as the current crisis, which is unfolding now.
Maybe this is where the OfA and Stimulus 1, 2, or 3 is really going......
Really, to win independents and make the difference between him and the empty chair clear, Mitt Romney has to act like some YouTube video by some moron is a good thing? How many voters do you really think are out there thinking to themselves, ""When he praised the service of the folks we lost I was with him, when he said that the President had failed I was with him, but I'm voting for Obama because Mitt criticized a YouTube video. Good thing I have no job, I won't have to get up early to vote for BHO."
Well, they are depressing because they are giving you pathetically false information, and I will stand by that statement even if Obama wins. Here’s why:
1. Intrade can be manipulated. Who says Obama can’t ask some people near him who are corrupt or who are really convinced he’ll win to go place victory bets on Intrade?
2. Intrade can screw up. As a freeper pointed out above, Intrade had Kerry at 90% on Election Day in 2004 based on the crappy exit polls.
3. Intrade often just reflects what the media is saying. In Wisconsin this past June every media outlet that wasn’t overtly leftist was doing reporting that portrayed Walker on the cusp of victory (partly based on the fact the the Dem-boosting PPP was showing walker with a decent lead), and Intrade suddenly spiked up to a comfortable Walker win.
4. The money trading on Intrade is less than $8 million. Chump change. People with a lot more skin in the game (stock market) are, as noted above, way more confident.
5. RCP averages are not just a joke, they’re a pathetic joke. Yesterday I saw Bill Hemmer on Fox talking about the RCP average in a swing state (Virginia , IIRC) and the time period the polls in the average covered was August 13 to September 11. A polling period nearly a month long! Polls in the average that took place before either convention!
6. The RCP averages don’t weight or discriminate due to polling methods or the pool of poll respondents. Polls of adults, registered voters and likely voters are all thrown in the same pot. So, if candidate A is losing but has a good public image overall, his numbers are boosted by the opinion of hundreds or even thousands of adults who will never go near a voting booth on Nov. 6.
7. The RCP averages take outliers and political polls and make them part of the calculation rather than throwing them out. A blatantly obvious PPP poll or Republican push poll is given the same weight as Rasmussen’s most careful work. In fact, if a national poll showed Obama losing by 20 points, the RCP average would show a massive gain for Romney, even though we all know that poll is a ludicrous outlier.
I’m not saying by any means we have this in the bag, but Intrade and RCP have nothing to tell us.
Of course I’m not suggesting that the video is a good thing.....I would just say that it should be irrelevant, and that our First Amendment Rights are given up for no one.
Some dimwit this morning ticked me off while I was driving to the gym listening to the radio. I don’t know what show this was, but it was some financial program and the guy said that Bernanke’s QE3 tossed any chance of Romney winning the presidency out the window. It makes no sense to me because I believe the Fed’s actions will only make the economy worse. This guy also cited the recent spike on Intrade as proof. I don’t believe the guy at all, but the mere mention of Obama being re-elected was enough to upset my mood.
We can’t afford 4 more years of Obama. Everyone please vote Romney, even if you have some reservations about his positions. Obama must be defeated!
Intrade is driven by people who are themselves driven by MSM/DNC propaganda.
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