Skip to comments.Has Rasmussen Changes His Polling Samples?
Posted on 10/13/2012 11:45:35 AM PDT by deltanine
I've seen mentioned in other venues that over the last few National surveys Rasmussen has changed his polling sample to R+3.
Anyone have access to the internals to verify this?
I am a platinum member so I see his samples.
He uses a D+3 (D 39 R 36 I 31) sample.
Thank you! I figured I was being exposed to Obama propaganda.
No place like Free Republic to get the truth.
Rasmussen used to set his party weighting based on his monthly polling of party affiliation. For some unknown reason, he stopped doing this and has arbitrarily weighted it as Dem +3.
Personally, I think that Ras was looking over his shoulder and saw that his numbers would be big outliers compared to the other polls if he went GOP +2... and got scared and went with Dem +3.
“Personally, I think that Ras was looking over his shoulder and saw that his numbers would be big outliers compared to the other polls if he went GOP +2... and got scared and went with Dem +3.”
You may be right there, Arthurio. It has to be unnerving to try to conduct honest polling and see your results so far off from everyone else. Even if you know you are reporting accurate numbers, at some point you would wonder if maybe the pack is right and you might be doing something wrong.
Well, lots of questions will be answered on election day. But, this campaign season has seen so many polls which seem to be doctored, to make it seem that Obama is more popular than he really is. Nov. 6th will reveal the truth.
Rasmussen seems to me to be hedging a little conservative (in terms of numbers, not politics) during the Romney surge. It's unlike the usual landscape to have many other polls moving in favor of the Republicans as much or more than Rasmussen. It's unusual for my own assessment to be 3 points greater than Rasmussen's.
I registered as a rat to vote against Hillary (my bad) since in the state where I vote there is virtually no way anyone but a rat will win and McCain already had the nomination.
And then there are the multitudes of rats who can no longer stomach zero....
Almost daring to feel optimistic about this election!
Yep. It makes no sense to poll for party id, and then throw them out the door when doing your poll. It’s a waste of money.
The only reason he’s doing it is to appease the Chicago thugs. Right now he has the party id at R+2.6. If he polled every day using that sample, Romney would be up about 5 points.
In 2004 Rasmussen had the party id (at this time) at D+1 and Bush won by 3.
In 2010 Rasmussen had the party id at D+2 and it was a GOP landlside.
At R+2.6 (plus the enthusiasm edge) we are looking at the biggest wipeout in history.
Unskewed Polls best place to look. It is +3 D. Make sure younlook there after next debate to see if the skewer changes on most polls. When Obama was leading by a lot the skewer was +7 to +13 (one +17). After we started pointing out that to justify their skewer the DemoRat turnout would have to either equal or exceed the 2008 turnout the skewer drooped to around +3 and now Romney is tied or slightly leading
Here’s the direct link to the Rasmussen archive with month-to-month party affiliation from 2004 to present.
Right. Some confuse the party affiliation poll with the sample he uses.
The party id is to gauge the number of Repubs/Dems/Other in the country. To get the trend and snapshot.
Rasmussen used to then apply these statistics to his daily polling.
He no longer does. For some reason he uses an arbitrary D+3 sample. I guess he is predicting the electorate will be a mix between 2008 (D+7) and 2004 (E).
We crawled over broken glass in 2010 without Obama on the ballot - just to send a message. Yet with Obama actually on the ballot - and to send him more than a message, but his actual walking papers - we aren’t as excited? I doubt that.
This will be a landslide defeat for Obama.
Seriously ~ all this stuff is garbage now. You really can't take polls with phone calls anymore.
We won in a blowout because nearly 40% of the Democrats didn't bother voting.
I guess I'm one of those.
When did he change, and has he said why he did?
I bet Rasmussen will start adjusting again when election is nearer. Being an outlier hurts with liberal media PR now (risking the koook factor), but his real goal is to match the real thing in Nov and become #1 in the field for 4 more years.
+3 Dem is the best possible outcome for the left. I’ll eat my cat if it ends up higher than that.
Mid terms and presidential. Comparing apples and oranges.
My point is the party id stat which still applies.
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