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Has Rasmussen Changes His Polling Samples?

Posted on 10/13/2012 11:45:35 AM PDT by deltanine

I've seen mentioned in other venues that over the last few National surveys Rasmussen has changed his polling sample to R+3.

Anyone have access to the internals to verify this?

Thanks!


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: badengrish; vanity

1 posted on 10/13/2012 11:45:38 AM PDT by deltanine
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To: deltanine

I am a platinum member so I see his samples.

He uses a D+3 (D 39 R 36 I 31) sample.


2 posted on 10/13/2012 11:48:10 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

Thank you! I figured I was being exposed to Obama propaganda.

No place like Free Republic to get the truth.


3 posted on 10/13/2012 11:51:53 AM PDT by deltanine
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To: deltanine

Rasmussen used to set his party weighting based on his monthly polling of party affiliation. For some unknown reason, he stopped doing this and has arbitrarily weighted it as Dem +3.

Personally, I think that Ras was looking over his shoulder and saw that his numbers would be big outliers compared to the other polls if he went GOP +2... and got scared and went with Dem +3.


4 posted on 10/13/2012 11:56:25 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

“Personally, I think that Ras was looking over his shoulder and saw that his numbers would be big outliers compared to the other polls if he went GOP +2... and got scared and went with Dem +3.”

You may be right there, Arthurio. It has to be unnerving to try to conduct honest polling and see your results so far off from everyone else. Even if you know you are reporting accurate numbers, at some point you would wonder if maybe the pack is right and you might be doing something wrong.


5 posted on 10/13/2012 12:00:49 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: deltanine

Well, lots of questions will be answered on election day. But, this campaign season has seen so many polls which seem to be doctored, to make it seem that Obama is more popular than he really is. Nov. 6th will reveal the truth.


6 posted on 10/13/2012 12:02:50 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Dilbert San Diego
Am I right that a hard D+3 model replacing Rasmussen's use of daily tracking to provide the model ... answers this question I posed on another thread? And do we we know when he switched?

Rasmussen seems to me to be hedging a little conservative (in terms of numbers, not politics) during the Romney surge. It's unlike the usual landscape to have many other polls moving in favor of the Republicans as much or more than Rasmussen. It's unusual for my own assessment to be 3 points greater than Rasmussen's.

7 posted on 10/13/2012 12:12:29 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: Arthurio

I registered as a rat to vote against Hillary (my bad) since in the state where I vote there is virtually no way anyone but a rat will win and McCain already had the nomination.

And then there are the multitudes of rats who can no longer stomach zero....

Almost daring to feel optimistic about this election!


8 posted on 10/13/2012 12:13:02 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 wasn't an election - it was a coup d'etat.)
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To: Arthurio

Yep. It makes no sense to poll for party id, and then throw them out the door when doing your poll. It’s a waste of money.

The only reason he’s doing it is to appease the Chicago thugs. Right now he has the party id at R+2.6. If he polled every day using that sample, Romney would be up about 5 points.

In 2004 Rasmussen had the party id (at this time) at D+1 and Bush won by 3.

In 2010 Rasmussen had the party id at D+2 and it was a GOP landlside.

At R+2.6 (plus the enthusiasm edge) we are looking at the biggest wipeout in history.


9 posted on 10/13/2012 12:15:10 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: deltanine; nhwingut; xzins
Good breakdown month-to-month on this FR thread...

(Rasmussen) Summary of Party Affiliation (Sep 30: R-36.8; D-34.2; Other-29.0)

H/T xzins

10 posted on 10/13/2012 12:15:47 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: deltanine

Unskewed Polls best place to look. It is +3 D. Make sure younlook there after next debate to see if the skewer changes on most polls. When Obama was leading by a lot the skewer was +7 to +13 (one +17). After we started pointing out that to justify their skewer the DemoRat turnout would have to either equal or exceed the 2008 turnout the skewer drooped to around +3 and now Romney is tied or slightly leading


11 posted on 10/13/2012 12:20:51 PM PDT by airedale
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To: deltanine

Here’s the direct link to the Rasmussen archive with month-to-month party affiliation from 2004 to present.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


12 posted on 10/13/2012 12:21:20 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Right. Some confuse the party affiliation poll with the sample he uses.

The party id is to gauge the number of Repubs/Dems/Other in the country. To get the trend and snapshot.

Rasmussen used to then apply these statistics to his daily polling.

He no longer does. For some reason he uses an arbitrary D+3 sample. I guess he is predicting the electorate will be a mix between 2008 (D+7) and 2004 (E).

We crawled over broken glass in 2010 without Obama on the ballot - just to send a message. Yet with Obama actually on the ballot - and to send him more than a message, but his actual walking papers - we aren’t as excited? I doubt that.

This will be a landslide defeat for Obama.


13 posted on 10/13/2012 12:28:00 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut
With a 91% nonresponse rate anyway, it makes no sense to adjust your polling results to conform to some other equally inadequate poll you took that did nothing but look at political affiliations claimed by voters.

Seriously ~ all this stuff is garbage now. You really can't take polls with phone calls anymore.

14 posted on 10/13/2012 12:32:25 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: nhwingut
The 2010 vote totals were down 15 million for Republicans and down 30 million for Democrats compared to 2008.

We won in a blowout because nearly 40% of the Democrats didn't bother voting.

15 posted on 10/13/2012 12:34:27 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: nhwingut
Some confuse the party affiliation poll with the sample he uses.

I guess I'm one of those.

When did he change, and has he said why he did?

16 posted on 10/13/2012 12:36:12 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: nhwingut

I bet Rasmussen will start adjusting again when election is nearer. Being an outlier hurts with liberal media PR now (risking the koook factor), but his real goal is to match the real thing in Nov and become #1 in the field for 4 more years.


17 posted on 10/13/2012 12:36:59 PM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: Arthurio

+3 Dem is the best possible outcome for the left. I’ll eat my cat if it ends up higher than that.


18 posted on 10/13/2012 12:44:04 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: SharpRightTurn
maybe he saw what the WH did to gallup
19 posted on 10/13/2012 12:44:48 PM PDT by stylin19a (Obama ->The Jayson Blair administration)
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To: muawiyah

Mid terms and presidential. Comparing apples and oranges.

My point is the party id stat which still applies.


20 posted on 10/13/2012 12:47:03 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut
The party ID statistics are irrelevant if they were arrived at with polling. There's a 91% non-contact non-responsive non-response rate these days.

If people actually want to play the polling game they should probably stick to current polls against last previous election actuals.

21 posted on 10/13/2012 12:55:04 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: stylin19a
maybe he saw what the WH did to gallup

There are a lot of possible explanations. As an American who despises Obama's far left fringe, I have no objection to Scott Rasmussen's decision regardless of his reasons. What Rasmussen is doing is close to the best possible option in terms of its effect on perceived momentum and on actual voting decisions.

22 posted on 10/13/2012 12:56:41 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: nhwingut
He uses a D+3 (D 39 R 36 I 31) sample...well that helps explain why he has Romney up only one point lately while other polls have shown him ahead by three or four...maybe he's just trying to keep expectations in check......
23 posted on 10/13/2012 2:04:08 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: ReaganGeneration2
his real goal is to match the real thing in Nov and become #1 in the field for 4 more years.

It's my contention that bias is not the only reason polls lie - there are ordinary business reasons as well.

24 posted on 10/13/2012 2:08:02 PM PDT by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: nhwingut
Disregard my post #16, I think I figured it out. (Duh!)

Ras has recently said he thinks the actual turnout will be D+2-4%. That explains his switch to a D+3 sample.

I still think his party affiliation makes more sense, so his reasoning confounded me.

Like you, I think we're about to witness a blowout of epic proportions. In that scenario the only way to explain a D+3 turnout is to realize that alot of Dems will vote for Romney.

It's the premise of this thread.

Sly one, that Rasmussen. :)

25 posted on 10/13/2012 2:29:49 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Rasmussen has to consider his own business, as well. He’s been producing the most Republican numbers of national polls. Most other polls are using D+6 or greater. So, with a D+3, Rasmussen will be closest as long as turnout is more Republican than D+4.5... which would be the second biggest D wave since Reagan.

Second, we have yet to hold an election where Ras showed more Rs than Ds the month before the election. November 2010 was the very first time Ras ever showed Rs outnumbering Ds. So, he doesn’t really have any data to guide him on what will happen on Election Day under that situation. He DOES know, though, that since Reagan got elected, turnout has been between even and D+4 every single election except 2008, with an average of D+2.5. That gives him a nice, safe model that is easy to defend. I don’t blame Ras one bit for that.


26 posted on 10/13/2012 3:36:30 PM PDT by lgwdnbdgr
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To: lgwdnbdgr

I think Ras is playing it smart. No fault can be found with that. He’ll still end up closer than anyone else, IMO.


27 posted on 10/13/2012 3:43:21 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
hmm ~ usually you never get any votes from the other side ~ you get either more votes from your own side, or fewer votes from your own side.

That's a far more powerful source of victory than planning on a bunch of Democrats coming down the street to pull the levers repeatedly for a Republican (which is pretty much like imagining that you could have an undecided 5 to 10% independent vote somewhere in the middle in a voting public that has no middle).

28 posted on 10/13/2012 5:25:40 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah
hmm ~ usually you never get any votes from the other side

The Reagan Democrats, Nixon Democrats, McCain Democrats, Bush Democrats, and Obama Republicans would probably see it differently.

Of the above, the Reagan Democrats were quite a factor in 1980 and 1984. Reagan actually expanded on the Nixon model (Nixon Democrats-also known as the Silent Majority).

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to be reading articles next year about the influence of the Romney Democrats on the 2012 election.

29 posted on 10/13/2012 6:08:41 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
Do not confound the wholesale conversion of a class of voters as being all that directly related to electoral politics. Souvrn' Democrats ~ particularly the younger Souvern'rs ~ were abandoned by the national Democrats long before Ronald Reagan came along.

The process of bringing Conservative Catholics into the Republican movement is taking just about as long and so far we only have the observant ones.

Which is to say the Reagan Democrats were already motivated to vote Republican and had done so before, and with the full acquisition of the black vote, began to do so on the state and local levels.

For the most part the two great coalition political parties in this country GROW by adding or attracting factions ~ individual conversions are of a lesser consequence.

The lesson is this ~ don't count your chickens twice ~ once as eggs and once as parts in the fry pan. You get your voters from your base, and the base is huge ~ certainly far more than the 63+ million 'W' was able to draw, or the 69 million 'obamugabe' found ~ in either party.

It is a mistake to abandon 40% of your Republican base of Socons to attract a couple of guys who write for Time magazine.

30 posted on 10/13/2012 6:17:50 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

Historically, at least since 1952, the most successful candidate campaigns electorally not only held virtually their entire base, but attracted large numbers of voters from the opposite party.

Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon(72),Reagan, and Bush(88) all put up popular and electoral vote totals that swamped the other guy. None of them abandoned their base to achieve those landslides.


31 posted on 10/13/2012 7:03:59 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
The most successful candidate campaigns have held their base and attained a large turnout within that base.

The big work on growing the base involves securing the support of entire factions ~ not just individuals on the other side.

The three biggest modern transfers of factions involved black voters (North and South, and augmented through passage of special voting rights legislation and enforcement), Southern white voters, and Roman Catholic voters.

Today a full 40% of the effective voting strength of the Democrat party in states where they are dominant is made up of black voters. They control ~ but do not dominate the Democrat parties in those states, and in the cities where they exercise control they dominate politics with an incredible totality.

40% of the Republican base consists of Social Conservatives ~ and a great deal of that base arises out of social groups who did not regularly vote in the past, or simply didn't vote in elections in areas where traditional Republican Conservatives dominated politics. This is a 'new growth' situation, not like the 'voter transfer' situation encountered with black voters.

The old Republican merchant and professional class voters have been popularized as the new TEAParty ~ and they're about 40% of the Republican vote. The remaining 20% is divided up among a residual group in New England ~ true 'Bitter Enders' ~ and the GOP-e which is representative of disembodied financial interests and their hired professional politicians.

In all of my analyses of the situation ~ going back to the 1850s, I usually set aside Eisenhower and Grant as special cases. Neither one really needed to campaign. Both were considered representative of the victors in truly great wars ~ Civil War for Grant and WWII for IKE, and he had also been SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER!

Even Truman wanted IKE to run for President as a Democrat.

32 posted on 10/13/2012 7:27:24 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah
All very informative and well taken.

It stands to reason that any successful candidate must secure and maximize his base and then motivate them to vote. It's easy to agree on that, it almost goes without saying.

My previous replies were to your original assertion that "usually you never get any votes from the other side". The opposite is the case with most winning candidates, and particularly those who have won by huge margins. It's just a matter of to what degree.

It would be logical to expect to never win any votes from the ideological core of the opposing party. That we can agree on.

33 posted on 10/13/2012 8:34:55 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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