Posted on 10/17/2012 4:52:39 PM PDT by Signalman
Seven states changed status and strengthened for Mitt Romney after two weeks of favorable state polling following his impressive performance in the first presidential debate. Montana moved from "lean" to "safe" Romney; North Carolina moved from "toss up" to "lean" Romney; Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Nevada moved from "lean" Obama to"toss up;" and Connecticut shifted from "safe" to "lean" Obama. Mr. Romney now has a total of 159 "safe" Electoral College votes with four "lean" states (47 EC votes), while Barack Obama is down to 194 "safe" EC votes and three "lean" states (43 EC votes). There are eight states (95 EC votes) in the "toss up" column, although Mr. Romney is leading in Florida and Colorado, is tied with Mr. Obama in Virginia, and is gaining ground in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa.
Note on methodology change: To get the best read of the state of the race, the final three weeks of Electoral College maps will use the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the map's release date (all polls earlier than that will drop off). For example, the map published on October 15 does not include any poll earlier than October 1, except if the latest poll in a state was conducted before that date (for example, the most recent poll in Vermont was taken on August 31).
?Seven states changed status and strengthened for Mitt Romney after two weeks of favorable state polling following his impressive performance in the first presidential debate. Montana moved from "lean" to "safe" Romney; North Carolina moved from "toss up" to "lean" Romney; Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Nevada moved from "lean" Obama to"toss up;" and Connecticut shifted from "safe" to "lean" Obama. Mr. Romney now has a total of 159 "safe" Electoral College votes with four "lean" states (47 EC votes), while Barack Obama is down to 194 "safe" EC votes and three "lean" states (43 EC votes). There are eight states (95 EC votes) in the "toss up" column, although Mr. Romney is leading in Florida and Colorado, is tied with Mr. Obama in Virginia, and is gaining ground in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa.
Note on methodology change: To get the best read of the state of the race, the final three weeks of Electoral College maps will use the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the map's release date (all polls earlier than that will drop off). For example, the map published on October 15 does not include any poll earlier than October 1, except if the latest poll in a state was conducted before that date (for example, the most recent poll in Vermont was taken on August 31).
Didn’t New Hampshire recently say out-of-state students could vote there?
This is still a challenging electoral map for Romney and will require a continuation of the current trend line for him to win. The single greatest challenge is Ohio, more specifically due to the influence of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), which contains a great concentration of multi-generational dependent Democrats.
By way of illustration: Obama won Ohio by 200,000 votes in 2008; his margin of victory in Cuyahoga County was 245,000. One out of every six Ohio Obama voters lived in Cleveland. Turnout will matter enormously.
I just don’t get these maps; this one and the RCP. How is a 6 point Gallup lead ending up as a Romney loss when you throw out toss ups? I have a feeling that they are highly underestimating the lack of Obama enthusiasm and the Tea Party’s substantial infrastructure that was built two years ago.
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