Posted on 11/01/2012 12:10:36 PM PDT by vonkayel
Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend.
But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me:
1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed with his 2008 predictions. I think he was fed internal data by the O campaign. What I don't understand is why he would risk his entire professional reputation on such seemingly outlanding claims in 2012. Bizzarre.
2. Ohio I keep expecting the Ohio polls to break massively toward Romney, but it hasn't happened. I understand that there are flaws in the methodology and sampling, but it still makes me nervous.
3. Intrade This is probably the most ridiculous of my worries. Intrade has been notoriously wrong in the past (see: Supreme Court to Overturn Obamacare = 95%). Still, the fact that there has been practialy no erosion in the Obama futures bothers me.
All things considered, I would MUCH rather be in our shoes than the Democrats. But, for the sake of the unreformed Eeyores lurking on FR, could someone please demolish these three nagging concerns?
Also, besides Ras, Gallup, Battlegroud & Pew have all shown that Mitt is in good shape. From what I have looked at all these Ohio polls that show Obama up run anywhere from D+5 to D+9. I suppose if dems turn out in Ohio like 2008 then they win, but I don’t think that’s the case. D+2 seems more in line at best. Then it’s a toss-up
Since 1916, only three GOPers have underperformed in OH when winning the popular vote; really 2. 1920 was a special case, Harding was running against fellow Ohioian Cox. Nixon in 1972 and W in 2004
So in 25 elections, it’s happened 2-3 times. Or about 10% of the time.
So it’s not exactly impossible, just improbable. But it does happen.
That’s why I mentioned that to the poster. It’s highly unlikely that Mitt underperforms in Ohio ths year. If I remember both Ras & Gallup expect a +1 R vote nationwide.
Good shape, means tied to -2.
That’s not good shape, that’s losing with no momentum.
Oh and please post a link to this mystery poll that RCP does not use.
Not a chance. Nobody cares.
Laz, Founder of the Negativity Club.
Lol, go find it yourself....it’s been on FR all day.
Ohio is a real concern. It looks like it might be breaking the wrong way. I have cousins up there and from what I am hearing the local press is busy telling everyone that their jobs are not going to China. Why Romney thought he could scare people to the polls ~10 days out I will never know. If you are going to pull something like that you need to do it in the last weekend. He was a week early.
VOTE FIRST !
I was gonna start a Pessimist’s Club
“What’s the point? We’re all gonna die someday anyways.”
Shit, that’s right. The hell with the Optimist’s Club. I probably never would have found a hall big enough for all the members anyway.
Wrong. There was another poll out this week that had Romney winning, but RCP doesn’t include it . . . because it has Romney winning.
Actually, now that I think about it, there was a third, but you’ll have to go through the FR threads to find it.
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