Posted on 11/02/2012 3:50:04 PM PDT by stroll
Starting with the best available source of trend data and adding a bit of thought and analysis, I come up with the following conclusions.
First, the reasoning:
The Northeast: The Northeast is a solid Democratic Party stronghold, and with the growth of the Northern Virginia suburbs has expanded to include that state in its political orbit.The South: The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya's inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn't great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina.
The Midwest: Mitt Romney's "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial hurt him badly in the Rust Belt; his ill-considered attempt to weasel his way out of the situation with a fact-check-fail ad compounded the damage. Indiana is an idiosyncratic Red patch in this Blue field, though Mourdoch's shot from the lip just might inflict spillover damage on the rest of the GOP ticket.
The Plains: The Plains states are a solid GOP stronghold. One possible wild card is Missouri, where Akin may have damaged the party brand as well sinking his own candidacy. Nebraska's split electoral system allows Omaha to tilt its district Blue, as in 2008.
The Mountain West: A GOP stronghold, as usual. (Alaska included in this group). The wild card is whether Colorado aligns with this group or with the Southwest (see below).
The Southwest: The growing Hispanic vote, combined with GOP hostilty on the immigration issue, is tilting the Southwest bluer. Arizona is probably still red, but without a native-son advantage such as the party had in 2008 this is less certain.
The Pacific Coast: A Democratic Party stronghold, as usual. (Hawaii included in this group)
The results of this calculation come out as follows:
GOP Best-Case Scenario
GOP Worst-Case Scenario
this for you:
Darn; missed all the fun.
Michigan is going red, so is PA. Ohio cannot tell its butt from its navel, so they will probably go Obama.
I say, leave the thread up.
cute! I thought there would be a lot more kitty pics.
Nate is that you?
That’s some truly hard-hitting analysis—”pretty much the entire country is strong Democrat or has the potential to be swayed by Obama appearing to be a president for an hour after a hurricane.”
Good stuff, I’m sure your MSNBC paycheck is in the mail.
I see a ZOT. Never been IBZT.
bfl
Lots of Kittens
Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my Viking Kitty/ZOT ping list!. . . don't be shy.
if we don’t count the dead votes and machine cheating, Romney wins with 299 electoral votes
You would have to be an idiot to think something like that. The Sandy aftermath has been appalling for the government for one thing.
~ ~ ~ ZOT ~ ~ ~
Something like this stroll:
Virginia has always had a majority Democrat base ~ Republicans continue to be a decided minority. However, Republicans control both houses of the legislature, the governorship, the lt. governorship, the attorney general's office, probably half the other elected offices and 8 out of 11 Representatives in Congress from this state.
Republicans can win here ~ we don't need no stinking RINOS to get involved, and when they do, they always manage to screw things up.
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