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Global Warming to Endanger Breakfast by 2080!!!
Watts Up With That? ^ | February 27, 2013 | Guest Post by David Middleton

Posted on 02/27/2013 11:49:03 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Guest Post by David Middleton

First it was wheat and now it’s coffee. What’s next? Bacon & eggs?

This is nothing but alarmist nonsense…

Researchers at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew and the Environment and Coffee Forest Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia looked at how climate change might make some land unsuitable for Arabica plants, which are highly vulnerable to temperature change and other dangers including pests and disease.

They came up with a best-case scenario that predicts a 38 per cent reduction in land capable of yielding Arabica by 2080. The worst-case scenario puts the loss at between 90 per cent and 100 per cent.

If global climate warming change disruption is likely to wipe out such a prevalent coffee bean in a few decades, the previous few hundred years of warming should have “left a mark” on global coffee production… Right?

I downloaded the latest HadCRUT4 temperature and Mauna Loa CO2 data from Wood for Trees and global coffee bean production from FAOSTAT and it appears that coffee bean trees like warmer temperatures…

And they really like a carbon dioxide-rich diet…

The “how climate change might make some land unsuitable” model was built from the IPCC’s totally bogus emissions scenarios. The modeled scenarios A1B, A2A and B2A.

The models say that “business as usual” will lead to A1-type scenarios (turn Earth into Venus and wipe out coffee). The models say that drastic cuts in carbon emissions are required to stay in the B2-type scenario range.

The actual data indicate that the B2-type scenario is the worst case possibility if we keep “business as usual”.

Furthermore, HadCRUT4 shows absolutely no global warming since late 2000…

Now, if I take HadCRUT4 back to the beginning of 1997, I get this…

(Note: I built this graph back in November.)

Let’s look at the equation of the trend line:

y = 0.0048x – 9.2567

The key part of the equation is the number right before “x.” That’s what’s called the “slope” of the function. The slope is 0.0048 °C per year. This works out to about half-a-degree (0.5 °C) Celsius per century. For reference purposes, the IPCC “forecasted” 1.8 to 4.0 °C per century over the next 100 years, depending on their various socioeconomic scenarios. Here’s the real kicker… The IPCC “forecasted” 0.6 °C of warming over the next century in a scenario in which CO2 remains at the same level as it was in 2000. This is reminiscent of Hanson’s failed 1988 model. The IPCC forecast more warming in a steady-state CO2 world than has actually occurred since 1997.

Now let’s look at the “R²” value…

R² = 0.0334

R² is the “coefficient of determination.” It tells us how well the trend line fits the data. An R² of 1.0 would be a perfect fit. An R² of 0.0 would be no fit. 0.0334 is a lot closer to 0.0 than it is to 1.0. R² is related to explained variance. The linear trend line “explains” about 3.3% of the variation in the temperature data since 1997. 96.7% of the variation was due to natural climatic oscillations (quasi-periodic fluctuations, if you prefer) and stochastic variability.

The scenarios in which coffee beans *might* be threatened, “forecasted” 1.8 to 4.0 °C of warming in the 21st century based on “business as usual” carbon emissions. The actual warming since 1998 has been less than the scenario in which atmospheric CO2 levels stopped rising at the beginning of this century.

Data Sources:

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Statistics Division. Coffee bean data downloaded on Feb. 27, 2013.

Hadley Centre. HadCRUT4 tropical temperature data downloaded on February 27, 2013 from Wood for Trees.

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa CO2 data downloaded on February 27, 2013 from Wood for Trees.


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax

1 posted on 02/27/2013 11:49:09 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: SunkenCiv; Marine_Uncle; Fred Nerks; Carry_Okie; blam; Lorianne; Twotone; bigbob; NormsRevenge; ...

fyi


2 posted on 02/27/2013 11:50:37 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

lol


3 posted on 02/27/2013 11:54:13 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released—chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2M8Bl6bdg


4 posted on 02/27/2013 11:54:30 AM PST by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

ROTFLOLOLOLOL.


5 posted on 02/27/2013 11:57:42 AM PST by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Like almost all plants I will assume that the coffee plant is many hundreds of millions of years old and has lived through many epochs of far warmer global temps than the in present.


6 posted on 02/27/2013 11:58:23 AM PST by TigersEye (The irresponsible should not be leading the responsible.)
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To: TigersEye

The “analysis” also completely disregards the likelihood that coffee growing will become economical in areas where it is not currently. Rather than becoming “extinct” (roughtly 0.0% probability) coffee would likely entend its range further north.

I can’t wait to get an nice cup of Green Mountain Coffee, that’s actually grown in the Green Mountains. About the only thing they grow there now is smelly hippies.


7 posted on 02/27/2013 12:31:20 PM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (What word begins with "O" and ends in economic collapse?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

no bootleg poultry product for me , I want my eggs laid the same week or two at least.. Thank you. I eat more eggs when I cruise than at home, go figure. I don’t have to cook them. lol We sail late May for Alaska. yummmy. and bacon is sacrosanct. do not disrupt the pork flow or there will be complaints. :-)


8 posted on 02/27/2013 1:00:33 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I volunteer to clear part of my Ohio banana plantation to make room for some coffee.
9 posted on 02/27/2013 1:07:34 PM PST by KarlInOhio (Choose one: the yellow and black flag of the Tea Party or the white flag of the Republican Party.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Where doomed. Coffee gone.


10 posted on 02/27/2013 1:13:31 PM PST by Marine_Uncle (I'm going John Galt slowly.... But. Honor must be earned.)
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To: KarlInOhio
Ohio banana plantation ....Who knew....Ohio could do that.,....

Maybe I could do that in the Mojave....

and Coffee to...we have some high altitude areas....up near the Sierras would be nice.

11 posted on 02/27/2013 1:15:58 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Marine_Uncle

I am concerned,...when coffee goes it will be my time to depart...I depend on ir.


12 posted on 02/27/2013 1:18:36 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If I make it to 2080, lack of coffee will be the least of my worries!


13 posted on 02/27/2013 1:46:21 PM PST by dynachrome (Vertrou in God en die Mauser)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

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Global Warming on Free Republic

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14 posted on 02/27/2013 9:22:16 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Drag Me From Hell!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

Trampling on People, Environment and Ethics

Global Warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News

Latest from Real Climate

Latest from Climate Depot

Latest from Greenie Watch

Latest from Junk Science

Latest from Terra Daily

Latest from CO2 Science

15 posted on 02/27/2013 9:23:00 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Drag Me From Hell!)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
The “analysis” also completely disregards the likelihood that coffee growing will become economical in areas where it is not currently. Rather than becoming “extinct” (roughtly 0.0% probability) coffee would likely entend its range further north.

Exactly. Juan Valdez would just have to go a little higher in the mountains to harvest the coffee beans.

16 posted on 02/28/2013 4:03:28 AM PST by Rocky (Obama is pure evil.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
So basically, desperately trying to get the masses re-alarmed about this decrepit and widely discredited and disbelieved hoax by claiming that it threatens something people actually care about so the bad guys can get the train to statism back on the rails. Is that about it?

Kinda like when yet another bond measure is on the ballot and if it doesn't pass, somehow the stuff on the chopping block is always the stuff the people don't want to see cut. Charlatans. Oxygen thieves.

17 posted on 02/28/2013 2:17:31 PM PST by Still Thinking (Freedom is NOT a loophole!)
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To: Rocky
Juan Valdez would just have to go a little higher in the mountains to harvest the coffee beans.

Yeah, except Juan is a Democrat so he doesn't want to do anything that reveals globull worming to be a hoax, plus he's union, and work rules prohibit him from climbing any higher because he wouldn't have time to make it back to the bottom before end of shift.

18 posted on 02/28/2013 2:31:02 PM PST by Still Thinking (Freedom is NOT a loophole!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Damn! Now, we 70 year olds have something else to worry about!


19 posted on 03/01/2013 9:27:29 AM PST by Grampa Dave (Tagline space for rent to pay for some of my extra taxes the next 4 years!)
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To: Grampa Dave
I have a months supply in my small freezer compartment.

Might need to invest in a much larger freezer.

20 posted on 03/01/2013 9:44:36 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Liz

Without our morning coffee, my trophy bride and I would fail to function.

Thanks to you and Liz I have a new tagline.


21 posted on 03/01/2013 9:52:35 AM PST by Grampa Dave (What do Sequester, Y2K and Gorebull Warming have in common? They were/are 100% BS!)
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To: Grampa Dave

Nice,....I agree.


22 posted on 03/01/2013 10:23:59 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Grampa Dave

Nice tagger....LOL.


23 posted on 03/01/2013 3:49:35 PM PST by Liz
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