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Climategate 3.0 has occurred the password has been released
Watts Up With That? ^ | March 13, 2013 | Anthony Watts

Posted on 03/13/2013 6:30:20 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

This post will be a top “sticky” post for some time, new essays will appear below this one – Anthony

A number of climate skeptic bloggers (myself included) have received this message yesterday. While I had planned to defer announcing this until a reasonable scan could be completed, some other bloggers have let the cat out of the bag. I provide this introductory email sent by “FOIA” without editing or comment. I do have one email, which I found quite humorous, which I will add at the end so that our friends know that this is valid. Update – the first email I posted apparently was part of an earlier release (though I had not seen it, there are a number of duplicates in the all.zip file) so I have added a second one.

Update 2: Additional emails have been added – Anthony

Update 3: Delingpole weighs in.

Climategate: FOIA – The Man Who Saved The World – Telegraph Blogs

I hope one day that FOIA’s true identity can be revealed so that he can be properly applauded and rewarded for his signal service to mankind. He is a true hero, who deserves to go on the same roll of honour as Norman Borlaug, Julian Simon and Steve McIntyre: people who put truth, integrity and the human race first and ideology second. Unlike the misanthropic greenies who do exactly the opposite.

===========================================================
Subject:  FOIA 2013: the password

It’s time to tie up loose ends and dispel some of the speculation surrounding the Climategate affair.

Indeed, it’s singular “I” this time.  After certain career developments I can no longer use the papal plural ;-)

If this email seems slightly disjointed it’s probably my linguistic background and the problem of trying to address both the wider audience (I expect this will be partially reproduced sooner or later) and the email recipients (whom I haven’t decided yet on).

The “all.7z” password is [redacted]

DO NOT PUBLISH THE PASSWORD.  Quote other parts if you like.

Releasing the encrypted archive was a mere practicality.  I didn’t want to keep the emails lying around.

I prepared CG1 & 2 alone.  Even skimming through all 220.000 emails would have taken several more months of work in an increasingly unfavorable environment.

Dumping them all into the public domain would be the last resort.  Majority of the emails are irrelevant, some of them probably sensitive and socially damaging.

To get the remaining scientifically (or otherwise) relevant emails out,  I ask you to pass this on to any motivated and responsible individuals who could volunteer some time to sift through the material for eventual release.

Filtering\redacting personally sensitive emails doesn’t require special expertise.

I’m not entirely comfortable sending the password around unsolicited, but haven’t got better ideas at the moment.  If you feel this makes you seemingly “complicit” in a way you don’t like, don’t take action.

I don’t expect these remaining emails to hold big surprises.  Yet it’s possible that the most important pieces are among them.  Nobody on the planet has held the archive in plaintext since CG2.

That’s right; no conspiracy, no paid hackers, no Big Oil.  The Republicans didn’t plot this.  USA politics is alien to me, neither am I from the UK.  There is life outside the Anglo-American sphere.

If someone is still wondering why anyone would take these risks, or sees only a breach of privacy here, a few words…

The first glimpses I got behind the scenes did little to  garner my trust in the state of climate science — on the contrary.  I found myself in front of a choice that just might have a global impact.

Briefly put, when I had to balance the interests of my own safety, privacy\career of a few scientists, and the well-being of billions of people living in the coming several decades, the first two weren’t the decisive concern.

It was me or nobody, now or never.  Combination of several rather improbable prerequisites just wouldn’t occur again for anyone else in the foreseeable future.  The circus was about to arrive in Copenhagen.  Later on it could be too late.

Most would agree that climate science has already directed where humanity puts its capability, innovation, mental and material “might”.  The scale will grow ever grander in the coming decades if things go according to script.  We’re dealing with $trillions and potentially drastic influence on practically everyone.

Wealth of the surrounding society tends to draw the major brushstrokes of a newborn’s future life.  It makes a huge difference whether humanity uses its assets to achieve progress, or whether it strives to stop and reverse it, essentially sacrificing the less fortunate to the climate gods.

We can’t pour trillions in this massive hole-digging-and-filling-up endeavor and pretend it’s not away from something and someone else.

If the economy of a region, a country, a city, etc.  deteriorates, what happens among the poorest? Does that usually improve their prospects? No, they will take the hardest hit.  No amount of magical climate thinking can turn this one upside-down.

It’s easy for many of us in the western world to accept a tiny green inconvenience and then wallow in that righteous feeling, surrounded by our “clean” technology and energy that is only slightly more expensive if adequately subsidized.

Those millions and billions already struggling with malnutrition, sickness, violence, illiteracy, etc.  don’t have that luxury.  The price of “climate protection” with its cumulative and collateral effects is bound to destroy and debilitate in great numbers, for decades and generations.

Conversely, a “game-changer” could have a beneficial effect encompassing a similar scope.

If I had a chance to accomplish even a fraction of that, I’d have to try.  I couldn’t morally afford inaction.  Even if I risked everything, would never get personal compensation, and could probably never talk about it with anyone.

I took what I deemed the most defensible course of action, and would do it again (although with slight alterations — trying to publish something truthful on RealClimate was clearly too grandiose of a plan ;-).

Even if I have it all wrong and these scientists had some good reason to mislead us (instead of making a strong case with real data) I think disseminating the truth is still the safest bet by far.

Big thanks to Steve and Anthony and many others.  My contribution would never have happened without your work (whether or not you agree with the views stated).

Oh, one more thing.  I was surprised to learn from a “progressive” blog, corroborated by a renowned “scientist”, that the releases were part of a coordinated campaign receiving vast amounts of secret funding from shady energy industry groups.

I wasn’t aware of the arrangement but warmly welcome their decision to support my project.  For that end I opened a bitcoin address: 1HHQ36qbsgGZWLPmiUjYHxQUPJ6EQXVJFS.

More seriously speaking, I accept, with gratitude, modest donations to support The (other) Cause.  The address can also serve as a digital signature to ward off those identity thefts which are part of climate scientists’ repertoire of tricks these days.

Keep on the good work.  I won’t be able to use this email address for long so if you reply, I can’t guarantee reading or answering.  I will several batches, to anyone I can think of.

Over and out.

Mr. FOIA
===============================================================

Here is one email that I found interesting and humorous, email addresses redacted as a courtesy. Note the bolding:

===============================================================

—–Original Message—–
From: Simon Tett
Sent: Saturday, August 25, 2001 1:36 PM
To: matcollins@xxx.xx.xxx
Cc: t.osborn@xxx.xx.xxx ; k.briffa@xxx.xx.xxx
Subject: Paleo-Paper

Mat,
The papers looks very good. Hope these comments aren’t too late…. I
don’t think I need to see it again.

Simon

Response to reviewers

I couldn’t read your letter — PS files as attachments seem to get
munged by our firewall/email scanner so I’ve just looked at the paper
to see if I think you’ve dealt with the reviewers comments.

Editors comments:

3) Don’t think you have dealt with the enhanced multi-decadal
variability in the paper.

Reviewer B.

1) Didn’t see a justification for use of tree-rings and not using ice
cores — the obvious one is that ice cores are no good — see Jones et
al, 1998.

2) No justification for regional reconstructions rather than what Mann
   et al did (I don’t think we can say we didn’t do Mann et al because
   we think it is crap!)

3) No justification in the paper for the 9 regions. I think there is
justification in the JGR Briffa paper.

4) That is a good point — I would strongly suspect that the control has
a lot less variance than the observations over the last century –
not the ALL run though!

5) No response to this in the paper. I suspect we are doing better
stats than all the rest though!

Specific Questions/comments

1) That is a good point: How about (though a bit germanic)
“Comparison of simulated northern hemisphere variability with
paleo-temperature …”

Didn’t see that you had dealt with points 5 and 6.

Ditto for point 11.

Figures.

2-4 seem to be much as submitted!

Figs 5-8 — do you want to use colour? It would cost!

Ref C.

Don’t seem to have dealt with point a) and it is quite an important
point as well!

Point b is a reasonable point which I think you go some way to dealing
with. I suggest you stress on page 20 the “exploratory” nature of our
analysis. I am just about to start such a run once I have sorted out
the orbital forcings and how to calculate their radiative forcings.

Point c — not sure what the referee is saying here!

Comments on the MS.

Page 9 “pith” means
Same sentence I think you need to add that they are grouped by
species as well (the rest of the para implies that is what is
done).

Last sentence of penultimate para: stress that decadal to century
scale variability is what we are interested mainly because of its
importance in deciding if recent climate change is anthropogenic or
natural.

First full para on page 13 — didn’t really follow this para.

2nd para, line 11 consider “in comparison” -> “when compared”

Page 14, first para — consider expanding the abbreviations i.e CAS ->
CAS (Central Asia).

Page 20, last para. insert ‘in the four simulations’ after ‘six
“negative spikes”‘.

Section 10 should be Appendix A.


Dr Simon Tett  Managing Scientist, Data development and applications.
Met Office   Hadley Centre  Climate Prediction and Research
London Road   Bracknell    Berkshire   RG12 2SY   United Kingdom
Tel: +44 xxxxxxx   Fax: +44 xxxxxx
E-mail: xxxxxxx

====================================================

Second email (added after original post)

====================================================

—–Original Message—–
From: Michael E. Mann
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 8:14 AM
To: Edward Cook
Cc: tom crowley ; Michael E. Mann ; esper@xxxxxx ; Jonathan
Overpeck ; Keith Briffa ; mhughes@xxxxxxx ; rbradley@xxxxxx
Subject: Re: hockey stick

<x-flowed>
Hi Ed,

Thanks for your message. I’m forwarding this to Ray and Malcolm to reply to
some of your statements below,

mike

At 10:59 AM 5/2/01 -0400, Edward Cook wrote:
> >Ed,
> >
> >heard some rumor that you are involved in a non-hockey stick
> >reconstruction
> >of northern hemisphere temperatures.  I am very intrigued to learn about
> >this – are these results suggesting the so called Medieval Warm Period
> >may
> >be warmer than the early/mid 20th century?
> >
> >any enlightenment on this would be most appreciated, Tom
> >
> >
> >
> >Thomas J.  Crowley
> >Dept. of Oceanography
> >Texas A&M University
> >College Station, TX  77843-3146
> >979-xxxxxxx
> >979-xxxxxxx
> >979-xxxxxxx
>
>Hi Tom,
>
>As rumors often are, the one you heard is not entirely accurate. So, I will
>take some time here to explain for you, Mike, and others exactly what was
>done and what the motivation was, in an effort to hopefully avoid any
>misunderstanding. I especially want to avoid any suggestion that this work
>was being done to specifically counter or refute the “hockey stick”.
>However, it does suggest (as do other results from your EBM, Peck’s work,
>the borehole data, and Briffa and Jones large-scale proxy estimates) that
>there are unresolved (I think) inconsistencies in the low-frequency aspects
>of the hockey stick series compared to other results. So, any comparisons
>with the hockey stick were made with that spirit in mind.
>
>What Jan Esper and I are working on (mostly Jan with me as second author)
>is a paper that was in response to Broecker’s Science Perspectives piece on
>the Medieval Warm Period. Specifically, we took strong exception to his
>claim that tree rings are incapable of preserving century time scale
>temperature variability. Of course, if Broecker had read the literature, he
>would have known that what he claimed was inaccurate. Be that as it may,
>Jan had been working on a project, as part of his post-doc here, to look at
>large-scale, low-frequency patterns of tree growth and climate in long
>tree-ring records provided to him by Fritz Schweingruber. With the addition
>of a couple of sites from foxtail pine in California, Jan amassed a
>collection of 14 tree-ring sites scattered somewhat uniformly over the
>30-70 degree NH latitude band, with most extending back 1000-1200 years.
>All of the sites are from temperature-sensitive locations (i.e. high
>elevation or high northern latitude. It is, as far as I know, the largest,
>longest, and most spatially representative set of such
>temperature-sensitive tree-ring data yet put together for the NH
>extra-tropics.
>
>In order to preserve maximum low-frequency variance, Jan used the Regional
>Curve Standardization (RCS) method, used previously by Briffa and myself
>with great success. Only here, Jan chose to do things in a somewhat radical
>fashion. Since the replication at each site was generally insufficient to
>produce a robust RCS chronology back to, say, AD 1000, Jan pooled all of
>the original measurement series into 2 classes of growth trends: non-linear
>(~700 ring-width series) and linear (~500 ring-width series). He than
>performed independent RCS on the each of the pooled sets and produced 2 RCS
>chronologies with remarkably similar multi-decadal and centennial
>low-frequency characteristics. These chronologies are not good at
>preserving high-frquency climate information because of the scattering of
>sites and the mix of different species, but the low-frequency patterns are
>probably reflecting the same long-term changes in temperature. Jan than
>averaged the 2 RCS chronologies together to produce a single chronology
>extending back to AD 800. It has a very well defined Medieval Warm Period -
>Little Ice Age – 20th Century Warming pattern, punctuated by strong decadal
>fluctuations of inferred cold that correspond well with known histories of
>neo-glacial advance in some parts of the NH. The punctuations also appear,
>in some cases, to be related to known major volcanic eruptions.
>
>Jan originally only wanted to show this NH extra-tropical RCS chronology in
>a form scaled to millimeters of growth to show how forest productivity and
>carbon sequestration may be modified by climate variability and change over
>relatively long time scales. However, I encouraged him to compare his
>series with NH instrumental temperature data and the proxy estimates
>produced by Jones, Briffa, and Mann in order bolster the claim that his
>unorthodox method of pooling the tree-ring data was producing a record that
>was indeed related to temperatures in some sense. This he did by linearly
>rescaling his RCS chronology from mm of growth to temperature anomalies. In
>so doing, Jan demonstrated that his series, on inter-decadal time scales
>only, was well correlated to the annual NH instrumental record. This result
>agreed extremely well with those of Jones and Briffa. Of course, some of
>the same data were used by them, but probably not more than 40 percent
>(Briffa in particular), so the comparison is based on mostly, but not
>fully, independent data. The similarity indicated that Jan’s approach was
>valid for producing a useful reconstruction of multi-decadal temperature
>variability (probably weighted towards the warm-season months, but it is
>impossible to know by how much) over a larger region of the NH
>extra-tropics than that produced before by Jones and Briffa. It also
>revealed somewhat more intense cooling in the Little Ice Age that is more
>consistent with what the borehole temperatures indicate back to AD 1600.
>This result also bolsters the argument for a reasonably large-scale
>Medieval Warm Period that may not be as warm as the late 20th century, but
>is of much(?) greater significance than that produced previously.
>
>Of course, Jan also had to compare his record with the hockey stick since
>that is the most prominent and oft-cited record of NH temperatures covering
>the past 1000 years. The results were consistent with the differences shown
>by others, mainly in the century-scale of variability. Again, the Esper
>series shows a very strong, even canonical, Medieval Warm Period – Little
>Ice Age – 20th Century Warming pattern, which is largely missing from the
>hockey stick. Yet the two series agree reasonably well on inter-decadal
>timescales, even though they may not be 1:1 expressions of the same
>temperature window (i.e. annual vs. warm-season weighted). However, the
>tree-ring series used in the hockey stick are warm-season weighted as well,
>so the difference between “annual” and “warm-season weighted” is probably
>not as large as it might seem, especially before the period of instrumental
>data (e.g. pre-1700) in the hockey stick. So, they both share a significant
>degree of common interdecal temperature information (and some, but not
>much, data), but do not co-vary well on century timescales. Again, this has
>all been shown before by others using different temperature
>reconstructions, but Jan’s result is probably the most comprehensive
>expression (I believe) of extra-tropical NH temperatures back to AD 800 on
>multi-decadal and century time scales.
>
>Now back to the Broecker perspectives piece. I felt compelled to refute
>Broecker’s erroneous claim that tree rings could not preserve long-term
>temperature information. So, I organized a “Special Wally Seminar” in which
>I introduced the topic to him and the packed audience using Samuel
>Johnson’s famous “I refute it thus” statement in the form of “Jan Esper and
>I refute Broecker thus”. Jan than presented, in a very detailed and well
>espressed fashion, his story and Broecker became an instant convert. In
>other words, Wally now believes that long tree-ring records, when properly
>selected and processed, can preserve low-frequency temperature variability
>on centennial time scales. Others in the audience came away with the same
>understanding, one that we dendrochronologists always knew to be the case.
>This was the entire purpose of Jan’s work and the presentation of it to
>Wally and others. Wally had expressed some doubts about the hockey stick
>previously to me and did so again in his perspectives article. So, Jan’s
>presentation strongly re-enforced Wally’s opinion about the hockey stick,
>which he has expressed to others including several who attended a
>subsequent NOAA meeting at Lamont. I have no control over what Wally says
>and only hope that we can work together to reconcile, in a professional,
>friendly manner, the differences between the hockey stick and other proxy
>temperature records covering the past 1000 years. This I would like to do.
>
>I do think that the Medieval Warm Period was a far more significant event
>than has been recognized previously, as much because the high-resolution
>data to evaluate it had not been available before. That is much less so the
>case now. It is even showing up strongly now in long SH tree-ring series.
>However, there is still the question of how strong this event was in the
>tropics. I maintain that we do not have the proxies to tell us that now.
>The tropical ice core data are very difficult to interpret as temperature
>proxies (far worse than tree rings for sure and maybe even unrelated to
>temperatures in any simple linear sense as is often assumed), so I do not
>believe that they can be used alone as records to test for the existence of
>a Medieval Warm Period in the tropics. That being the case, there are
>really no other high-resolution records from the tropics to use, and the
>teleconnections between long extra-tropical proxies and the tropics are, I
>believe, far too tenuous and probably unstable to use to sort out this
>issue.
>
>So, at this stage I would argue that the Medieval Warm Period was probably
>a global extra-tropical event, at the very least, with warmth that was
>persistent and probably comparable to much of what we have experienced in
>the 20th century. However, I would not claim (and nor would Jan) that it
>exceeded the warmth of the late 20th century. We simply do not have the
>precision or the proxy replication to say that yet. This being said, I do
>find the dismissal of the Medieval Warm Period as a meaningful global event
>to be grossly premature and probably wrong. Kind of like Mark Twain’s
>commment that accounts of his death were greatly exaggerated. If, as some
>people believe, a degree of symmetry in climate exists between the
>hemispheres, which would appear to arise from the tropics, then the
>existence of a Medieval Warm Period in the extra-tropics of the NH and SH
>argues for its existence in the tropics as well. Only time and an enlarged
>suite of proxies that extend into the tropics will tell if this is true.
>
>I hope that what I have written clarifies the rumor and expresses my views
>more completely and accurately.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Ed
>
>==================================
>Dr. Edward R. Cook
>Doherty Senior Scholar
>Tree-Ring Laboratory
>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
>Palisades, New York  10964  USA
>Phone:  1-845-xxxxxx
>Fax:    1-845-xxxxxx
>Email:  drdendro@xxxxxxx
>==================================

_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxx  Phone: (804) 924-7770   FAX: (804) 982-2137

http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

—–Original Message—–
From: Michael E. Mann
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 8:14 AM
To: Edward Cook
Cc: tom crowley ; Michael E. Mann ; esper@xxxxxxxx ; Jonathan
Overpeck ; Keith Briffa ; mhughes@xxxxxx ; rbradley@xxxxxxx
Subject: Re: hockey stick

<x-flowed>
Hi Ed,

Thanks for your message. I’m forwarding this to Ray and Malcolm to reply to
some of your statements below,

mike

At 10:59 AM 5/2/01 -0400, Edward Cook wrote:
> >Ed,
> >
> >heard some rumor that you are involved in a non-hockey stick
> >reconstruction
> >of northern hemisphere temperatures.  I am very intrigued to learn about
> >this – are these results suggesting the so called Medieval Warm Period
> >may
> >be warmer than the early/mid 20th century?
> >
> >any enlightenment on this would be most appreciated, Tom
> >
> >
> >
> >Thomas J.  Crowley
> >Dept. of Oceanography
> >Texas A&M University
> >College Station, TX  77843-3146
> >979-xxxxx
> >979-xxxxx
> >979-xxxxx
>
>Hi Tom,
>
>As rumors often are, the one you heard is not entirely accurate. So, I will
>take some time here to explain for you, Mike, and others exactly what was
>done and what the motivation was, in an effort to hopefully avoid any
>misunderstanding. I especially want to avoid any suggestion that this work
>was being done to specifically counter or refute the “hockey stick”.
>However, it does suggest (as do other results from your EBM, Peck’s work,
>the borehole data, and Briffa and Jones large-scale proxy estimates) that
>there are unresolved (I think) inconsistencies in the low-frequency aspects
>of the hockey stick series compared to other results. So, any comparisons
>with the hockey stick were made with that spirit in mind.
>
>What Jan Esper and I are working on (mostly Jan with me as second author)
>is a paper that was in response to Broecker’s Science Perspectives piece on
>the Medieval Warm Period. Specifically, we took strong exception to his
>claim that tree rings are incapable of preserving century time scale
>temperature variability. Of course, if Broecker had read the literature, he
>would have known that what he claimed was inaccurate. Be that as it may,
>Jan had been working on a project, as part of his post-doc here, to look at
>large-scale, low-frequency patterns of tree growth and climate in long
>tree-ring records provided to him by Fritz Schweingruber. With the addition
>of a couple of sites from foxtail pine in California, Jan amassed a
>collection of 14 tree-ring sites scattered somewhat uniformly over the
>30-70 degree NH latitude band, with most extending back 1000-1200 years.
>All of the sites are from temperature-sensitive locations (i.e. high
>elevation or high northern latitude. It is, as far as I know, the largest,
>longest, and most spatially representative set of such
>temperature-sensitive tree-ring data yet put together for the NH
>extra-tropics.
>
>In order to preserve maximum low-frequency variance, Jan used the Regional
>Curve Standardization (RCS) method, used previously by Briffa and myself
>with great success. Only here, Jan chose to do things in a somewhat radical
>fashion. Since the replication at each site was generally insufficient to
>produce a robust RCS chronology back to, say, AD 1000, Jan pooled all of
>the original measurement series into 2 classes of growth trends: non-linear
>(~700 ring-width series) and linear (~500 ring-width series). He than
>performed independent RCS on the each of the pooled sets and produced 2 RCS
>chronologies with remarkably similar multi-decadal and centennial
>low-frequency characteristics. These chronologies are not good at
>preserving high-frquency climate information because of the scattering of
>sites and the mix of different species, but the low-frequency patterns are
>probably reflecting the same long-term changes in temperature. Jan than
>averaged the 2 RCS chronologies together to produce a single chronology
>extending back to AD 800. It has a very well defined Medieval Warm Period -
>Little Ice Age – 20th Century Warming pattern, punctuated by strong decadal
>fluctuations of inferred cold that correspond well with known histories of
>neo-glacial advance in some parts of the NH. The punctuations also appear,
>in some cases, to be related to known major volcanic eruptions.
>
>Jan originally only wanted to show this NH extra-tropical RCS chronology in
>a form scaled to millimeters of growth to show how forest productivity and
>carbon sequestration may be modified by climate variability and change over
>relatively long time scales. However, I encouraged him to compare his
>series with NH instrumental temperature data and the proxy estimates
>produced by Jones, Briffa, and Mann in order bolster the claim that his
>unorthodox method of pooling the tree-ring data was producing a record that
>was indeed related to temperatures in some sense. This he did by linearly
>rescaling his RCS chronology from mm of growth to temperature anomalies. In
>so doing, Jan demonstrated that his series, on inter-decadal time scales
>only, was well correlated to the annual NH instrumental record. This result
>agreed extremely well with those of Jones and Briffa. Of course, some of
>the same data were used by them, but probably not more than 40 percent
>(Briffa in particular), so the comparison is based on mostly, but not
>fully, independent data. The similarity indicated that Jan’s approach was
>valid for producing a useful reconstruction of multi-decadal temperature
>variability (probably weighted towards the warm-season months, but it is
>impossible to know by how much) over a larger region of the NH
>extra-tropics than that produced before by Jones and Briffa. It also
>revealed somewhat more intense cooling in the Little Ice Age that is more
>consistent with what the borehole temperatures indicate back to AD 1600.
>This result also bolsters the argument for a reasonably large-scale
>Medieval Warm Period that may not be as warm as the late 20th century, but
>is of much(?) greater significance than that produced previously.
>
>Of course, Jan also had to compare his record with the hockey stick since
>that is the most prominent and oft-cited record of NH temperatures covering
>the past 1000 years. The results were consistent with the differences shown
>by others, mainly in the century-scale of variability. Again, the Esper
>series shows a very strong, even canonical, Medieval Warm Period – Little
>Ice Age – 20th Century Warming pattern, which is largely missing from the
>hockey stick. Yet the two series agree reasonably well on inter-decadal
>timescales, even though they may not be 1:1 expressions of the same
>temperature window (i.e. annual vs. warm-season weighted). However, the
>tree-ring series used in the hockey stick are warm-season weighted as well,
>so the difference between “annual” and “warm-season weighted” is probably
>not as large as it might seem, especially before the period of instrumental
>data (e.g. pre-1700) in the hockey stick. So, they both share a significant
>degree of common interdecal temperature information (and some, but not
>much, data), but do not co-vary well on century timescales. Again, this has
>all been shown before by others using different temperature
>reconstructions, but Jan’s result is probably the most comprehensive
>expression (I believe) of extra-tropical NH temperatures back to AD 800 on
>multi-decadal and century time scales.
>
>Now back to the Broecker perspectives piece. I felt compelled to refute
>Broecker’s erroneous claim that tree rings could not preserve long-term
>temperature information. So, I organized a “Special Wally Seminar” in which
>I introduced the topic to him and the packed audience using Samuel
>Johnson’s famous “I refute it thus” statement in the form of “Jan Esper and
>I refute Broecker thus”. Jan than presented, in a very detailed and well
>espressed fashion, his story and Broecker became an instant convert. In
>other words, Wally now believes that long tree-ring records, when properly
>selected and processed, can preserve low-frequency temperature variability
>on centennial time scales. Others in the audience came away with the same
>understanding, one that we dendrochronologists always knew to be the case.
>This was the entire purpose of Jan’s work and the presentation of it to
>Wally and others. Wally had expressed some doubts about the hockey stick
>previously to me and did so again in his perspectives article. So, Jan’s
>presentation strongly re-enforced Wally’s opinion about the hockey stick,
>which he has expressed to others including several who attended a
>subsequent NOAA meeting at Lamont. I have no control over what Wally says
>and only hope that we can work together to reconcile, in a professional,
>friendly manner, the differences between the hockey stick and other proxy
>temperature records covering the past 1000 years. This I would like to do.
>
>I do think that the Medieval Warm Period was a far more significant event
>than has been recognized previously, as much because the high-resolution
>data to evaluate it had not been available before. That is much less so the
>case now. It is even showing up strongly now in long SH tree-ring series.
>However, there is still the question of how strong this event was in the
>tropics. I maintain that we do not have the proxies to tell us that now.
>The tropical ice core data are very difficult to interpret as temperature
>proxies (far worse than tree rings for sure and maybe even unrelated to
>temperatures in any simple linear sense as is often assumed), so I do not
>believe that they can be used alone as records to test for the existence of
>a Medieval Warm Period in the tropics. That being the case, there are
>really no other high-resolution records from the tropics to use, and the
>teleconnections between long extra-tropical proxies and the tropics are, I
>believe, far too tenuous and probably unstable to use to sort out this
>issue.
>
>So, at this stage I would argue that the Medieval Warm Period was probably
>a global extra-tropical event, at the very least, with warmth that was
>persistent and probably comparable to much of what we have experienced in
>the 20th century. However, I would not claim (and nor would Jan) that it
>exceeded the warmth of the late 20th century. We simply do not have the
>precision or the proxy replication to say that yet. This being said, I do
>find the dismissal of the Medieval Warm Period as a meaningful global event
>to be grossly premature and probably wrong. Kind of like Mark Twain’s
>commment that accounts of his death were greatly exaggerated. If, as some
>people believe, a degree of symmetry in climate exists between the
>hemispheres, which would appear to arise from the tropics, then the
>existence of a Medieval Warm Period in the extra-tropics of the NH and SH
>argues for its existence in the tropics as well. Only time and an enlarged
>suite of proxies that extend into the tropics will tell if this is true.
>
>I hope that what I have written clarifies the rumor and expresses my views
>more completely and accurately.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Ed
>
>==================================
>Dr. Edward R. Cook
>Doherty Senior Scholar
>Tree-Ring Laboratory
>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
>Palisades, New York  10964  USA
>Phone:  1-845-xxxxx
>Fax:    1-845-xxxxx
>Email:  drdendro@xxxxx.xxxxx.xxx
>==================================

_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (804) 924-7770   FAX: (804) 982-2137
http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

=========================================================================

Here is an email from Tom Wigley on Naomi Oreskes. Bold mine. (h/t to Junkscience.com)

=========================================================================

date: Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:16:40 -0700
from: Tom Wigley
subject: Re: [Fwd: Your Submission]
to: Phil Jones

Phil,

This is weird. I used Web of Knowledge, “create citation report”, and
added 1999 thru 2009 numbers. Can’t do you becoz of the too many PDJs
problem.

Here are 3 results …

Kevin Trenberth, 9049
Me, 5523
Ben, 2407

The max on their list has only 3365 cites over this period.

Analyses like these by people who don’t know the field are useless.
A good example is Naomi Oreskes work.

Tom.


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: climategate; climategate3; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
I have not read much of this....but Anthony always gets it right.
1 posted on 03/13/2013 6:30:20 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: SunkenCiv; Marine_Uncle; Fred Nerks; Carry_Okie; blam; Lorianne; Twotone; bigbob; NormsRevenge; ...

Wowser,...


2 posted on 03/13/2013 6:32:27 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I was wondering when FOIA would surface again!


3 posted on 03/13/2013 6:43:24 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear (Great vid by ShorelineMike! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOZjJk6nbD4&feature=plcp)
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To: All

351 Responses to Climategate 3.0 .....


4 posted on 03/13/2013 6:46:30 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Does this explain why spring hasn’t even bothered to tease me yet this year?


5 posted on 03/13/2013 6:48:52 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If you are just a guy who scribbles down temps and plugs numbers into a computer... Well, you’re just a nobody. But, if you’re the guy who is OUT TO SAVE THE WORLD!!!!

Scientists are not unlike the average joe; they dream about being Jason Bourne also.


6 posted on 03/13/2013 6:55:49 PM PDT by HMS Surprise (Chris Christie can STILL go straight to hell.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

Global Warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News Site

Latest from Greenie Watch

Latest from Real Climate

Latest from Climate Depot

Latest from Junk Science

Latest from Terra Daily

Latest from CO2 Science

7 posted on 03/13/2013 7:05:09 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Drag Me From Hell!)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Hope more can be found in this new wave....will likely be awhile though if at all.


8 posted on 03/13/2013 7:09:05 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Kool, it’s about freakin’ time.


9 posted on 03/13/2013 7:12:49 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: All
From the comments:

************************************EXCERPT*************************************

  1. Joseph E Postma says:

    Congrats to Tim Ball for his article requesting this to be done, and if it created this outcome! Wonderful!


10 posted on 03/13/2013 7:19:51 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I am too tired to read all of this. Are there Cliff Notes on this? Can someone sum this up for me. Mucho grassy-ass.


11 posted on 03/13/2013 7:25:01 PM PDT by Cowgirl of Justice
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To: Cowgirl of Justice
I think it will be awhile before ....correlation stuff comes out.

But the mere fact that the total cache is out ...may reveal even more....hopefully.

12 posted on 03/13/2013 7:30:48 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; ...

Thanks Ernest.


13 posted on 03/13/2013 7:35:13 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Bookmark


14 posted on 03/13/2013 7:35:20 PM PDT by publius911 (Look for the Union label, then buy something else.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

got it


15 posted on 03/13/2013 7:38:57 PM PDT by I got the rope
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanks for the post. BTTT.


16 posted on 03/13/2013 8:10:33 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Cowgirl of Justice
More from the comments:

This might help:

************************************EXCERPT***************************************


17 posted on 03/13/2013 8:12:06 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanks for the ping.

Drip, drip, drip... I like the way these leakers operate.
Mann’s work is “crap”, LMBO!!


18 posted on 03/13/2013 8:30:57 PM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

ping for later


19 posted on 03/13/2013 8:59:57 PM PDT by BreezyDog (Illegitimi non carborundum)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Hark Ernest!
Thanks for the heads up. I shall bookmark this post as
appropriate, create a new BOOK MARK FOLDER DIRECTORY named
Climate-Gate-2, then go to site to see if I can download the
the files, etc..
Perhaps it will go as smoothly as with Climate-Gate-1 and 2 zipped file packages.

20 posted on 03/13/2013 9:05:19 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Ernie. Am I accurate to think at this point that there is no
zip file, that contains a package of emails and other, that
that in essence was package like we had a few years back?
That is.
A zip file that contains a whole mix of emails and data.
After wading through the Whats up with that site links,
it appears there is not a single zipped file one can download.
Am I correct in reaching that conclusion?
21 posted on 03/13/2013 9:18:56 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: Marine_Uncle
I am not clear in just what we have....since the passwords are still not available to all.

Bear that in mind.

22 posted on 03/13/2013 9:25:33 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

destroying enviromentalists/climate activists would seem to be a positive thing.


23 posted on 03/13/2013 9:33:29 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Marine_Uncle

The zip file is called “all.7z”. Its encrypted. 134 mb file that requires password to open it. I’ll look for a link.


24 posted on 03/13/2013 9:44:15 PM PDT by I got the rope
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To: Marine_Uncle

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/

Zip file found here


25 posted on 03/13/2013 9:55:58 PM PDT by I got the rope
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To: Lancey Howard

Mann Made Global Warming. No deception there.


26 posted on 03/13/2013 9:57:29 PM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afghanistan and Iraq))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

This is leaker is great. Too bad he/she has to hide idenity. We could arrange for a presidential pardon for the hacker in the future...

Leftists are unethical sickos and should not have access to bio-warfare research facilities. It’s a mental illness of the criminally insane and it should not be used in shaping “bio-ethics” like it is in science.

If they fail to take over the world’s means of production - energy through climate fear and surrender to leftist centralized control - many Leftists “would go there” (to biological warfare) having convienced themselves they have to kill millions of people to get to Utopia...again. They have wetted their fanatical blood lust within their climate change cult. They have also wetted the appitite of big global money in alternative energy, research, and police state suppliers and wealthy control freak wannabes. The global warming agenda is an unholy alliance between communists and fascists - globally.

The leaker is quite a hero for exposing their lies as the watermelons were blasting the football down the field. They still got away with with billions, Europe and California before they were sacked. They aren’t giving up on America and they own the Senate and Executive Branch.


27 posted on 03/13/2013 10:05:00 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Lots of work. I have heard generally about the e-mail scandal. Can someone provide a noob a readers digest version of what all this means.


28 posted on 03/13/2013 10:05:28 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: morphing libertarian

See #17 for a very distilled summary...


29 posted on 03/13/2013 10:17:20 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: morphing libertarian
I just posted this thread ...:

Has the world started cooling? Hints from 4 of 5 global temperature sets…

See the First Graph and the not there showing the IPCC temperature projections.

The Sientists involved with the emails were in the business of modifying data ....literally...to support what the Global politicians wanted.

The eMails exposesed their conspiracy.

30 posted on 03/13/2013 10:32:44 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: morphing libertarian
It has been a long and tough battle to figure out what theses crooks were up to....

The eMails totally exposed them....

For the politicians of the left,...around the world,...it was going to be a very nice revenue tap for the slush funds via various taxes on carbon.

California is still making efforts to implement it.

31 posted on 03/13/2013 10:36:49 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: I got the rope; Ernest_at_the_Beach; All
Thanks, IGTR. I'm in the process of downloading.
Understand the password provided by Antony's site.
For others. The password is "all.7z" in case you decide to
download the 135mb zip file titled all.7z from the site that
I got the rope references.
REFERENCE THREAD 25.
32 posted on 03/13/2013 10:41:46 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

bookmark.


33 posted on 03/13/2013 10:48:39 PM PDT by dadfly
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To: I got the rope; Ernest_at_the_Beach
I spent the time waiting for the zip file to be downloaded.
Did an unzip on it.... provided the "all.7z" password as
was indicated at Anthony's site.
It would not unzip into meaningful files. After twenty
minutes of watching the error messages that a password was
required. I killed the zip process.
Tens of thousands of empty files in directory I directed the
unzip to place the files.
I'M NOW WARNING OTHERS TO NOT BE SO HASTY IN DOWNLOADING THIS
ZIP FILE. IT WILL NOT UNZIP PROPERLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT.
Duty bound to at least WARN others they may be wasting their time.
34 posted on 03/13/2013 11:12:26 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Great news.

Now the FOIA person claims to be not of the Anglosphere, but considers themselve part of the West. That narrows it down to one Continent and a few thousand islands.

35 posted on 03/13/2013 11:45:12 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Awesome post, Ernest!

I wish Mr. FOIA good health, and God speed!


36 posted on 03/13/2013 11:58:51 PM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Old age and treachery always overcomes youth and skill.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Save


37 posted on 03/14/2013 1:38:10 AM PDT by Eagles6 (Valley Forge Redux)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Global warming is a big hoax. The Earth is cooling not warming so the news media and gov changed the name of global warming to climate change.

This article is just more proof of this hoax

The government funded this hoax . gov spent trillions of $ in grants to fund decades of this totally fake research .

This alone proves that government(socialism) can never work. they are totally unaccountable to reality, to truth , to efficiency etc. If you open up a private business you are accountable to the bottom line, to efficiency, to your customers. government agencies are not and idiots in universities receiving government grants to do global warming research are not accountable to anything .

Then they and the news media use this fake research to further grow government and take away our freedom. And many sheep believe the government and news media brainwashing. They actually believe capitalism (big oil etc) are destroying the planet with global warming. And when I tell these liberals and other sheep that global warming is a hoax many laugh , others look at me like I’m crazy. the media and gov are the problem. We should email this to Rush and drudge etc.


38 posted on 03/14/2013 2:03:03 AM PDT by Democrat_media (media makes mass shooters household names to create more & take our guns)
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To: Marine_Uncle
Why would you think that the password was the same as the file name? Did you see this in the original post:

The “all.7z” password is [redacted]
DO NOT PUBLISH THE PASSWORD.

It seems that selected bloggers received the password, but were asked not to pass it along to the general public.

39 posted on 03/14/2013 2:03:44 AM PDT by Rocky (Obama is pure evil.)
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To: RushIsMyTeddyBear

btt


40 posted on 03/14/2013 2:25:52 AM PDT by KSCITYBOY
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To: Marine_Uncle

http://www.7-zip.org/

You have to download this first


41 posted on 03/14/2013 4:25:28 AM PDT by I got the rope
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To: HMS Surprise

From the bottom of this Post:

“Analyses like these by people who don’t know the field are useless.
A good example is Naomi Oreskes work.”

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/naomi_oreskes_conspiracy_queen.html

“’Naomi Oreskes is the environmentalist Noam Chomsky. She thinks that anyone who questions environmentalist doctrine is evil. Her crusade is to expose the presumed ulterior motives of the critics. According to Oreskes, if you question the dubious studies concerning secondhand tobacco smoke, you must be in the pay of tobacco companies. If you question global warming, you must be working for a fossil fuel company. If you question the DDT ban, you must part of a right wing conspiracy to weaken faith in government regulators.”

(continues)


42 posted on 03/14/2013 5:13:54 AM PDT by BwanaNdege ("To learn who rules over you simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"- Voltaire)
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To: SaraJohnson

” ... many Leftists “would go there” (to biological warfare) having convinced themselves they have to kill millions of people to get to Utopia...again”

“Rainbow Six” - Tom Clancy


43 posted on 03/14/2013 5:21:38 AM PDT by BwanaNdege ("To learn who rules over you simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"- Voltaire)
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To: Rocky

Your right. Bad me.


44 posted on 03/14/2013 1:25:49 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: I got the rope

Thanks I got a rope.


45 posted on 03/14/2013 1:50:18 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: I got the rope
Thanks I got a rope. I must have been very tired. I used Tug
Zip instead of the 7-Zip program I have had installed on my machine for going on two years.
46 posted on 03/14/2013 1:57:05 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanx


47 posted on 03/14/2013 2:45:18 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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