Microsoft Could Be Completely Irrelevant In Four Years, Gartner Warns Analyst

Business Insider ^ | 04/04/2013 | Charles Arthur, The Guardian

[SeekAndFind]

Microsoft faces a slide into irrelevance in the next four years unless it can make progress in the smartphone and tablet markets, because the PC market will continue shrinking, warns the research group Gartner.

It says a huge and disruptive shift is underway, in which more and more people will use a tablet as their main computing device, researchers say.

That will also see shipments of Android devices dwarf those of Windows PCs and phones by 2017. Microsoft-powered device shipments will almost be at parity with those of Apple iPhones and iPads - the latter a situation not seen since the 1980s.

In a new forecast published on Thursday morning, Gartner says that by 2015 shipments of tablets will outstrip those of conventional PCs such as desktops and notebooks, as Android and Apple's iOS become increasingly dominant in the overall operating system picture. Android in particular will be installed on more than a billion devices shipped in 2014, says Carolina Milanesi, the analyst who led the research.

Meanwhile a new category of "ultramobile" devices - such as the Surface Pro and the lighter ultrabook laptops - will become increasingly important as people shift towards more mobile forms of computing.

For Microsoft, this poses an important inflexion point in its history, warns Milanesi. "Winning in the tablet and phone space is critical for them to remain relevant in this shift," she told the Guardian. "We're talking about hardware displacement here - but this shift also has wider implications for operating systems and apps. What happens, for instance, when [Microsoft] Office isn't the best way to be productive in your work?"

For Microsoft, income from Windows and Office licences are key to its revenues: per-PC Windows licences generate about 50% of its profits, and Office licences almost all the rest.

[Spirochete]

The only thing it does not have is an e-mail model like Outlook.

Try Mozilla Thunderbird with the "Lightning" plugin. I've sent meeting requests to Outlook users, and it works. It does calendars, notes, and tasks too.

[Pox]

Really? So you are guaranteeing me that Tablets will absolutely, no questions asked, become the primary computing device of the overwhelming majority of PC users over the next few years?

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

“Perhaps I am old school, I am, for sure, old, but I don’t see myself ever replacing my full size screen, full size keyboard and mouse for a much smaller screen, impossible to use teeny, tiny keyboard, and finger swipes. Just doesn’t make sense to me. Does it to you?”

You can still have all that . Just plug it in to your work station. Full size screen and keyboard. Unplug it, stick it in your pocket when you go on vacation it is with you. You need to do something you don’t have to wait till you get home. Got a vacation cabin? All you need is a monitor and keyboard and you’re in business.

[Steely Tom]

Really? I found it (Visual Studio's IDE) to be kinda a PITA; I'd rather use the old Borland Delphi 5 IDE though it's starting to show its age it's really quite well-built. -- Though I have to say the worst thing about VS is the help-system, IMO it's a terrible internet integration. {The old .hlp files were much faster and usually easier to navigate.}

Whatever you're used to is what's best for you.

The learning curve for really getting fluent with a modern IDE is really long.

There are still a lot of things about MSVS that I don't understand very well.

MS Visual C 6.0 (back in the early '90's) I actually mostly understood. That was long ago and far away, though.

Actually, if I had my way, I'd still be programming APL using an IBM 2741 terminal. Just kidding.

If I had my way I'd be as young as I was then, that's for sure.

[erod]

Google Docs (especially when they improve their spreadsheet app)

Touché, good sir.

[mazda77]

Thanks for the heads up. I have used Firefox exclusively for about two years now and absolutely hate when I have to run IE for some specific on-line technical stuff. I also have given up on acrobat as well, opting for FoxIt. Much faster and uses far less resources.

[FoxPro]

If somebody gave me an iPad, I don’t think I would ever use it.

It doesn’t have a keyboard or mouse and the screen is a fraction the size of my monster monitor, which I love.

I call bullshit on this.

There will always be a bazillions of desktop monitors with separate keyboards and a mouse, however connected.

The reason computer sales are slowing is that we keep our computers longer than we used to. We don’t need ever bigger drives and memory. I have had the same laptop for 5 years and I am not and have no desire for more capacity. I could see using this computer for the rest of my life.

This is just common sense.

[upchuck]

Thanks for the suggestions. When I travel, I take my Lenovo ThinkPad notebook computer.

Yes, it’s bigger than a smartphone. Yes it does run Win 7 which no smartphone can do (MSFT’s fault). Yes, when it comes to realworld applications, it runs rings around a smartphone.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Oh I don’t think smartphones are there yet. Tree or four years from now will be a different story though. In the future a smartphone will be capable of 99% users needs. I do think the desktop/ laptop will still be necessary for some people.

[rdb3]

Why not iPads or Android based Tablets?

Good question.

It appears that Google and Samsung may be drifting apart. We'll see what happens with Android soon.

[beef]

Reading a large document on a smart phone is like reading the paper through a toilet paper tube. Tablets are better, but I usually need several programs up at the same time. For me it’s PCs for serious work.

[warriorfor honor]

When I need to buy office twice for my wife and I it has gone to far I will run as soon as an alternative shows up.

The greed is to much A family should only need to buy once.
The same will go for all others that make such demands.

[Cyropaedia]

Anyone remember the Microsoft monopoly?

And you have this chap to thank upending Microsoft's stranglehold on the tech industry :

[beef]

Don’t get me wrong - I am not a MS drone. It’s Linux for me.

[bigtoona]

In other news.....

iPad sales cratered in the first quarter. Just 16 million iPads were sold during the period, yielding a 16% year-over-year decline. Analyst expectations were up at around 20 million iPads, which would have amounted to slight growth of 3%. This is only the second time in the iPad’s market existence in which quarterly year-over-year shipments declined.

[nascarnation]

I assume pretty much everybody that wanted an iPad got one, and now we’re looking at upgrades and replacements.

I know 33% of the ones I bought for my grandkids have suffered catastrophic accidental damage.