Skip to comments.Bill Gates: People Don't Realize How Many Jobs Will Soon Be Replaced By Software Bots
Posted on 03/14/2014 11:30:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Big changes are coming to the labor market that people and governments aren't prepared for, Bill Gates believes.
Speaking at Washington, D.C., economic think tank The American Enterprise Institute on Thursday, Gates said that within 20 years, a lot of jobs will go away, replaced by software automation ("bots" in tech slang, though Gates used the term "software substitution").
This is what he said:
"Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses … it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model."
He's not the only one predicting this gloomy scenario for workers. In January, the Economist ran a big profile naming over a dozen jobs sure to be taken over by robots in the next 20 years, including telemarketers, accountants and retail workers.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I would like one of those Butler-bots in “Sleeper”.
Can we have a bot POTUS? Something that actually recognizes logic?
By dint of regulation and taxation, government has functionally outlawed employing actual people for many tasks. Add to that the destruction of the education system, resulting in a ‘workforce’ as ignorant as a Houston Congresswoman and it becomes a mathematical necessity for businesses to replace as many warm bodies as possible with automation.
If the bots are from Microsoft, they’ll be fired for taking too much sick leave!
hey Mr. Bill...I'd like to know what robot is going to wipr your ugly little butt when you're just another demented peasant?...and what bot is going to put that catheter up your ying yang to drain your bladder?..and who is going to to dress your open sores on your coccyx and who is going to doing rescue breathing for you when you're dying?....
the whole fact of the matter is that there will actually be need for MORE jobs in the long run...but they won't be manufactuting...they'll be FIXING things and transporting things and taking care of children and adults....
I was employed in a very well paid job. One day I made notes about the incredible number of mindless repetitive tasks I did and started thinking up ways to automate them. Most of them could have been automated using just Excel. Granted you’d need to know how to program in Excel, but it all doable. Tasks I regularly spent four to six hours on could be automated with eight hours work and then be virtually free after that. I looked around and listed all the tasks my department did that could be done away with. My boss was horrified. He said, in a threatening voice, “Fine, but you’ll be the first one laid off.”
We had government contracts and in general we were instructed to take the longest possible route. The more we charged the more the company made. (And that, is one reason why stuff costs the taxpayer so much.)
From the customer POV, you no longer have a waiter/waitress interrupting your meal every 10 minutes asking "how's everything tasting today?" but you do wait a little longer for coffee/soda/water refills. Bar service on the other hand seems faster. ;-)
software will however make parts of the nurses job easier which means they won’t have to hire as many nurses. this is already happening.
For example the old method of taking blood pressure require a nurse to place the cuff on you, pump it up etc.
He also suggested doing away with income and payroll taxes and NOT raising the minimum wage. Hmmmmm.
Then why the he double hockey sticks do we need more immigrants to fill jobs?
All I know is amnesty will fix this.
That’s where you implement the automation for yourself and use your new free-time to write that novel you’ve always wanted to.
This would explain his obsession with population control.
The elites have decided they won’t need us. And they’re working hard to meet that goal.
I believe he refers to those tasks that are repetitive and routine. Nurses used to spend most of their time monitoring blood pressure, taking temperatures, pulses and recording those results. This required a significant amount of their time. Now each patient has their own monitor to record data and transmit to the patient file.
What you describe are those that require personal attention, and even some of those may eventually be improved with technology.
Gates believes that the tax codes are going to need to change to encourage companies to hire employees, including, perhaps, eliminating income and payroll taxes altogether. He's also not a fan of raising the minimum wage, fearing that it will discourage employers from hiring workers in the very categories of jobs that are most threatened by automation. He explained: "When people say we should raise the minimum wage. I worry about what that does to job creation ... potentially damping demand in the part of the labor spectrum that Im most worried about."
That's all the more reason why we ought to restore the import tariffs and bring as much manufacturing home as possible.
That's all the more reason why we ought to restore the import tariffs and bring as much manufacturing home as possible.
The touch screen ordering has been around for over a decade. It’s more accurate and can use different languages. It only required a person to make the sandwich, and we are at the point where that can now be done when it becomes economically feasible. And the democrats are hastening that time by raising the human cost in a process, thereby cutting jobs for low skilled workers.
He may be right. The income tax tends to be more stable than a consumption tax in an economic downturn. But income taxes discourage specialization. When it costs you 2x what you make to hire someone else, then you do it yourself.
Hence the growth of Home Depot and Lowes.
Look at what IBM is doing with Watson. People will be surprised that it isn’t just lower skill labor that can get automated, knowledge workers are threatened as well.
Robots for that very thing are being researched today.
This is a trend that begun with the industrial revolution.
I can list dozen of jobs that no longer exist because of automation (just from within my life time).
Businesses make financial decisions. They do not care if they employe a machine or a person. As long as they can get good quality work for low cost. If a person can do it, fine, if a machine can do it, that is also fine.
As someone else posted, government rules and regulations are making people more expense and trouble to hire and keep.
For individual businesses it makes sense to cut the number of real people and replace them with machines, but what will happen when the majority of people do not have a job or an income (other than welfare which is just a wealth transfer from those that are still working to those that are not)?
It is almost impossible to predict the future, but one thing can be predicted. No trend remains forever. Something will occur to change the way things are going.
Technology cant possibly compare with this administration over killing jobs.
While we're still abundant and generating revenue, they look on the non-elite as a cash crop to be exploited for more power and money. That's fine by them. What they don't want is those of us in the bottom 98% (or so) sharing their physical space. That is the problem with there being so many of us.
Every Windows machine I’ve had in the last 20 years gets slugged up and won’t work at the 2 year point. Unless the world is operating on reliable RTOS’, none of this will work. Of course, reliable RTOS’ are cheap now, so it might come to pass if MS gets out of the way.
Not to worry — a $10/hour or $15/hour minimum wage will bring all those wait-staff jobs back.
Yeah Bill. When you develop a dissecting aneurism, stay home with your bot. Stay the hell outta my ER.
I said a long time ago that we were “technologing” ourselves out of work. When I started my post-Army retirement civilian job, I was covering two attorneys in a law firm. I was working as hard as I could to stay up with them. By the time I retired out in 2007, 14 years later, I was covering FIVE attorneys. Because of computers and such the attorneys were now doing work that I used to do. The more it gets that way, the fewer legal assistant jobs there will be. Our firm had let several jobs go unhired when people left and those attorneys just paired out to other LA’s to cover. It is only going to get worse. Just wait till McDonalds has technology cooking the burgers, answering the drive thru and the robut handing you your order after you swiped your One World Government Credit Card to pay for the order.
*Snort!* Well played!
I’ve wondered how many more years before we see a pilotless remote-controlled passenger jet. Depending on what happened to Flight 370, it might be sooner rather than later.
Gates if you created the bots then we will need twice and many people to remove the bugs from them!!!
and now, thanks to Obama, their operators will get overtime!
They want us to save the planet for THEIR children.
Abortuaries are good enough for our children.
I did some independent consulting for several dinner theaters back in the late 80's/early 90's and they were using touch screens with wifi back then. The waiters/waitress' used thhem to place orders at tableside, the order would print in the kitchen where it would be filled by kitchen staff who then paged the waiter/waitress back to the kitchen via the touch screen device when the order was ready.
I helped implement several of those systems, IIRC the company name of the vended software and hardware solution was Squirrel Systems. It's been over 20 years so I may not remember the vendor's name correctly.
In my Chili's restaurant reference above, that was the first time I'd seen a device at tableside on each table with customers placing their own orders. (They were wif iPads btw with customized application software.)
I’ve believed for a long time that the worlds elites do expect to reach a point where they can live nicely with automation. It may take another 10+ years.
Putting on my tinfoil hat, I think that at that point they will view the “surplus” 6-7 billion people on earth as expendable. Some nasty engineered bug, held in deep storage, will do the trick.
They're certainly trying... just failing way too often on the landings. Humans are still the better option... for now.
If it is relatively flat, yes. But, if it is progressive, it can be volatile.
That's one of the reason that federal government revenues crashed in 2008. The rates had been adjusted to the point that the bottom 50% paid almost no income tax, and the top 1% were paying a bigger proportion of federal taxes than ever before.
But, the income of the top 1% is variable, and much less stable than the middle class. The income (especially from capital gains) dropped off, and so did tax revenue. And it made the deficit that much larger.
Yeah now you have lay there with that uncomfortable sleeve on you arem that just takes it so often.
It’s been happening for decades, why people are just now noticing I cant imagine.
In fact, when I got a new washer and dryer recently, I proclaimed to my children: come see the two new robots I bought!
My children said.. um... dad... those aren’t robots... I said, Sure they are! they are just robots that do a specific function, unlike the robots depicted in movies. We also have robots that wash our dishes, cooked our food, pump the water to our house, heat our water, air condition our homes, ect, ect.
well basically we don’t, the democratic party just needs more voters.
but, the technology is also not quite there yet to replace most manual labor jobs, but we are real close.
“....hey Mr. Bill...I’d like to know what robot is going to wipr your ugly little butt when you’re just another demented peasant?...”
By that time another robot on the death panel has already decided that Mr. Bill should just quietly die.
Perhaps the invention of the computer is not the blessing we, at first, thought to be.
In many instances it turned out to be a de-humanizing machine.
IMHO they already view us as expendable. They’re just working on our replacements.
It’s why they speak of us as being a cancer on the planet and that the ideal number of us is somewhere south of 100M. Of course, all THEIR children/gkids will be in that number.
As I typed above. The elites, Gates especially, want us to be sure to ‘save the planet’ for THEIR kids by foregoing kids of our own. And if we won’t do it voluntarily they’ll do it forcibily. Gates is on the record advocating coercive and forcible sterilization.
Over two decades ago I was involved in AutoCad solutions for an expanding central PA gas/convenience chain. Their touchscreen pads appeared in the next few years with multiple counter installations where you selected the sandwich components and it was “made to order”, or MTO.
They have expanded all over the region and are known for their service and spotless locations.
“....we were instructed to take the longest possible route.”
Yup, contractors are paid my the number of manhours they charge. Load up the project with new hires (including a whole bunch of foreigners) and when the job is completed, lay’m off.
That’s how the game is played.
I do agree with Gates, I saw that very thing in my last job. We started out with over sixty Union guys. I was part of a four man programmer/engineer team that took everything these guys knew and automated those functions. It took over twenty years but by the time natural attrition and no hiring for open positions and the union guys were down to four and the programmers were gone and the System administrators were two people.
Automation of repetitive tasks and functions is here to stay.
Of course the end result as we see more and more is there is little new work for the population. My own bet to myself is that we will eventually see anti-fertility drugs as a normal part of ‘processed foods and pre-packaged meals. With the goal of reducing the planet’s population down to ninety million or so. That’s the goal I’ve been hearing for years from the ‘elites’ and the ‘tree-huggers. It’ll be interesting to see if they and their children will be a part of that population or if they will be ‘excessed’ as non-productive population.
Of course when dealing with people and the future we’re are more likely to see a world-wide revolution and everything turned upside down. Then again Huxley did predict a word addicted to Soma and TV, he might have been more correct than the rest of us in the long run.
I worked 35 years in a tier I automotive stamping plant and have seen first hand what automation and robotics have done for the industry.
I would say the vast majority of people driving their vehicles today have no idea what actually goes on in the auto plants and my plant in terms of automation. It's incredible........
I would highly recommend that everyone take advantage of the plant tours that are offered by some of the automakers