BIG NEWS Part II: For the first time – a mysterious notch filter found in the climate

joannenova.com.au ^ | June 15th, 2014 | Joanne

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[bobo1]

I read the first one. I have had one too many adult beverages in the meantime to properly absorb the data.

I will have to read later, however, this is very interesting.

[Steely Tom]

Elliot Wave Theory meets The Hockey Stick.

[Jack Hydrazine]

They’ve figured out that the Sun drives the Earth’s climate.

Let’s see if they can find the orbital forcing, too!

[UCANSEE2]

Clouds.

[ForYourChildren]

Wow! Cool use of FFT.

[bobo1]

OMG. Read it anyway.

Now I am going to have to throw away my “Henny Penny” book and stop believing that the sky is falling.

Wait til my progressive friends hear about this!

Thanks to a liberal education, they can only hear about it, they can’t read.

[ottbmare]

Would it be possible to translate this into English from the original Engineerese?

[Little Pig]

But, in that last figure, there is a noticeable increase in *overall* solar radiation, which seems to correspond pretty well to the overall increase in temp shown on the graph. So maybe the climate has too much inertia to swing wildly in concert with the sun’s short-term fluctuations, but can be pushed along just fine by the overall radiance of the sun.

Which would still allow for the overall radiance to be the driver of climate, and would explain why the recent weaker solar cycles (and the pending much weaker one) seem to correspond pretty well to the absolute lack of “warming” over the past 17+ years.

______

I was sort of musing on this last night. So much of “climate science” these days focuses on just the last 2000-3000 years or so, but climate goes arm-in-arm with the geology of the planet. It’s a long-term phenomenon. We humans have only had civilization for those ~3000 years or so, and before that were barely able to scrape by. What we lose sight of, all too often, is that this is (likely) just a temporary warmer blip in the middle of a crushing ice age. And based on data sets like the Vostok ice cores, our little blip is nearing its end (if the length of the previous “blips” are anything to go by). In the next 1000-5000 years or so, we may see a return to the devastatingly frigid temps that marked the 60,000 years prior to that (a couple of wishful-thinking articles argue that this one might be “longer” at 20,000+ years, and one even suggests 50,000). If the Vostok data is anything to go by, our current interglacial is actually one of the colder ones. And we’ve probably got a long way to go before the earth passes out of this current ice age.

We should be so lucky to have that inevitability put off by “climate change”, because the alternative is a frozen hell where food becomes horrifically scarce.

[spokeshave]

Let's just cut to the chase....

(PhysOrg.com) -- Sunspot formation is triggered by a magnetic field, which scientists say is steadily declining. They predict that by 2016 there may be no remaining sunspots, and the sun may stay spotless for several decades.

The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age....and lasted 400 years.

Good luck surviving with a lot less electricity and GE modified seeds.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news203746768.html#jCp

[Jack Hydrazine]

I’m sure if they used enough Fourier transforms on their data they’ll be able to find the AGW hiding in there somewhere.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

OK,...this is getting deeper.

Get some rest...and thanks for cmmening.

[ForYourChildren]

The post says, "In the next post, we’ll build the solar model, starting with a notch filter."

I went to link provided to look for it, but it must not be released yet. I really look forward to seeing it.

In the comment I see this conversation:

=============

John, who eats meat & never visits Paddington
June 16, 2014 at 6:41 am
"Thanks David,
I look forward to the additional posts, but I’m already curious what would cause an 11 year notch?. For a notch filter, you need a cancellation signal of the same amplitude and frequncy, but opposing phase. I’m guessing you already have ideas ? Another solar forcing, oceans currents, etc ?"

David Evans
June 16, 2014 at 2:19 pm

"Stumped us for months. Eventually figured it out, we think. Joanne eventually noticed the vital clue. Will be revealed soon…"

[Patriot Babe]

Not sure what this means, but are we doomed?

Is there something I should be doing to prepare?

or should I just go back and suck on my Cherry/Pineapple Popsicle and count my pennies?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Don’t look for me to do it!

[Norm Lenhart]

Or make a really bitchin’ EQ/filter plugin for Pro Tools ;)

/Music thing

[lee martell]

Oh, we’re talking science. I saw Notched Filter and thought about the good old days when I smoked More Menthols.

[BenLurkin]

What does this mean?

In terms that people no more intelligent than Rachel Jeantel can understand.

[justa-hairyape]

TSI is not really a good metric to analyze the solar input variability. That is because of the nature of sunspots created by magnetic surface activity. Basically - The brighter active regions of sunspots are negated by the darker regions of sunspots. It is just the nature of the physics of the magnetically active regions. So visible light does not show a lot of variability. That however does not mean there is little variation in activity during the cycle. UV light would be the best metric. It can have a 25 to 40 % variability between an active sun and a quiet sun. And it does not experience that negating duality of visible light around active sunspot regions. You should also use overall magnetic field strength and the speed of the solar wind.