Posted on 03/16/2016 11:30:27 AM PDT by frankenMonkey
The Utah GOP Primary Explained, Mostly...
It's a bit complex because of an ongoing struggle by the party bosses and apparatchiks to maintain control over the party. The ouster of Bob Bennett by Mike Lee still sticks in their craw. Plenty of laws being passed, lawsuits and judges thrown into the mix. But for now, this is my understanding.
On March 22, Utah will take part in the GOP primaries. Utah has 40 delegates, with a state population of 3 million. (The same day Arizona will allocate 58 delegates with a population of 6.8 million, and American Samoa 9 delegates.)
Utah will use a hybrid caucus + vote system. Votes for presidential preference will be held at the caucuses, but on the same day online voting will also be held. This will be the first time any political party has allowed online voting for a presidential primary election in the nation. The total of caucus votes and online votes will determine the allocation of delegates. All 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on this voting, but for the first round only. Participation in the online voting is closed, you must be a registered Republican to vote. Unique IDs are emailed to each voter to gain access to the online system.
Allocation of the delegates is as follows:
• If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 40 National Convention delegates.
• If 3 or more candidates receive 15% or more of the vote, the 40 National Convention delegates are proportionally allocated to those Presidential contenders receiving 15% or more of the vote.
• If fewer than 3 candidates receive 15% or more of the vote, the 40 National Convention delegates are proportionally allocated between all Presidential contenders.
Where the candidates stand...
Only two polls are available, taken in January and February when Rubio and Carson were still in the mix. The averages of those are:
• Cruz - 20%
• Kasich - 3%
• Trump - 18%
• Rubio - 19%
• Carson - 12%
Where they sit today is anyone's guess, but my sense is Cruz and Trump are about equal, with Kasich a very distant third. If we give them 33% each, with the remaining 33% going to Mitt or "none of the above" (it's Utah, anything can happen, even Huntsman Jr.), and based upon the allocation, both will surpass the 15% threshold. But neither will reach the 50% threshold needed to gain the entire delegation of 40, so it could be a draw, about 20 delegates each.
The Utah GOP is dominated by the LDS church. Right now, Trump is anathema to the leaders, and I don't think there is any warmth for Cruz's religion or reputation. But, with the online voting, a groundswell for Trump may take place. I think a Trump rally could actually get him over the 50% mark. There is the same anti-establishment fervor here, not as overwhelming as in other states, and just under the surface.
And Trump had nothing to lose by skipping the debate. It was a setup, nothing more. Priority seating was to be given to the organization and donors. And if you witnessed Mitt's speech, you can see how easily an audience can be packed with anti-Trumpers.
**This is purely my conjecture. I've been involved in Utah politics as a non-Mormon from the Kennedy sweep in 1960, with the arrival of Frank Moss, Scoop Jackson, Calvin Rampton and others, and enjoy watching the circus that is Utah politics!**
I have a much simpler explanation:
All the Mormons vote for Cruz because of his Glenn Beck (metaphorical) love affair, and Cruz wins by a decent margin.
I’m a Trump supporter, but I am realistic enough to acknowledge that he has virtually no hope of winning in such a puritanical stronghold.
/Utah is beautiful though, when the mountains aren’t trapping smog blankets over everything
Huntsman is the Guy who can get votes
Good points.
I don’t know how much of a following Beck (Stabbie the Clown) has in Utah.
Thanks for the informative post.
Online voting is so convenient and so hackable at the same time.
Maybe future candidates will all have a professional computer hacker on the staff. :-(
From what I understand Mormons view the constitution as an inspired document. Cruz is a Constitutional conservative and that is where his support comes.
Agree. But he’s an outsider, just like Trump.
Rubio was the golden child here, and with his departure it’s anyone’s call.
Maybe they’ll all vote for Mittens or Huntsman as a spoiler.
“From what I understand Mormons view the constitution as an inspired document. Cruz is a Constitutional conservative and that is where his support comes.”
I’m LDS. Inspired document, yes. But if you ascribe to Skousen as some to, he teaches that foreign born is NOT natural born. I personally see this as undermining the constitution and the future sovereignty of the country.
Hey frankenMonkey,
What is the current view on the Utah School Trust Lands? Clinton locked them up in the mid 90’s with, I think, an executive order in retaliation for not voting for him.
Would a promise to reverse that order and returning those lands to the control of the state be a strong enough mandate for Trump to garner more support from Utah voters? As I said, I think it was an EO, which can be easily reversed if that is the case.
What are your thoughts?
That’s a complex situation.
It’s not really the Trust Lands, I think. Those are held by the State for the benefit of the school system, and are controlled entirely by the State, no Federal involvement. (Although they could possibly be impacted by a National Monument declaration, which is what Clinton did.) They are square mile (I think) sections of land spread fairly evenly throughout the state. They only generate money from oil and mineral extraction.
The BLM land is an entirely different situation. It’s a big issue in the southern part of the state, and with legislature, not so much with the urban voters and weekend recreationists. A pledge of some kind would sway 10-15% of the voters to Trump (a guess on my part).
It’s fully anticipated that Obama will declare the Bears Ears National Monument in the next few months. It’s 2 million acres, more or less, just north of the Navajo Nation. The southern Utahns, legislature, governor and congressional delegation will raise hell, but once done, things never seem to be undone.
Long story short (sorry...!) is that a pledge to return control or undo an Obama action will have a minimal impact, i think.
Interesting. Maybe it was the coal motherlode in southern Utah. I just remember that everyone was really upset about it and it was locking up Utah’s resources.
It was the Grand Staircase / Escalante National Monument that Clintoon did. 1.8 million acres, sandwiched between Cayonlands and Lake Powell. And yes, it was a direct and public slap in the face of Utah.
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