Posted on 09/03/2018 11:09:34 AM PDT by Silentgypsy
Thanks for input!
Thanks Silentgypsy. Universal Basic Income? Single-payer Medicaid for all? Nah.
More likely we'll be in search of learning lost skills. I'd be surprised if that isn't the main focus of education. There will be more demand for handmade items of all kinds, because the stuff made by automation is not really considered beyond its utility, or collector value. Basically, it'll be the same as now, just moreso.
When humans are fully replaced by robots, maybe our robot lords will let us have that day off from maintenance on robots.
“That expansive and baseless statement has already been proven utterly false countless times.”
Lmao. You can prove something false that is yet to come? Kind of how they proved humans could never fly by throwing people wearing feathers off cliffs.
We are at the beginning stages of creating AI that truly works like a brain. True neural architecture based on how brains work that leads to self-learning like a human. I’ve been witness to the most cutting edge AI and it truly terrifies me.
The machines will eventually learn all they see, share all their learned knowledge across the world in realtime and never forget anything. What an individual human learns in a lifetime is peanuts compared to what the machine network will very quickly learn.
I’m against it but it is inevitable on this current path. A nation that truly masters AI will rule the planet and we must run head first into the game before others do it
On Labor Day, I'd hope they'd have been trained to grill awesome brats and ribs!
-PJ
So that we can have a weekend to lubricate and polish our personal assistance robots.
That’ll be our personal assistance bots!
:)
I kind of call it the "Star Trek" future; stewardship of the earth will be in the hands of a small population of highly educated technicians who clock in only to ensure the machines stay running, the vast majority of their time will be spent in leisure and scholarly pursuit.
This leaves billions who do not possess the skillsets that this new world demands. They have nothing to offer except crime, violence, dysfunction, dependence, and offspring who need to be fed and clothed. They will come to be viewed as a nuisance.
No harm, no foul, gypsy.
Then who becomes the Master, and who is the servant?
-PJ
A post-industrial society is often defined as one in which the wealth created by services exceeds that created by manufacturing. Perhaps we are there already. The article suggests that in twenty years even the production of services, such as flying an airplane, may fall to automation which is bound to be cheaper and more reliable. Should we come to that, how will we define a non-productive person when so little production is required from anyone? It may be then that our role is largely to consume and a non-productive element is one who consumes insufficiently.
As you point out, the challenge will be to engage the non productive, or non-consuming elements, and insufficient consumption would not be a whimsical problem. One of the themes in 1984 is that war is necessary for the destruction of the produce of human labor. War certainly does that, and if history teaches us anything it emphasizes the dual nature our progress, moving partly toward the light and partly toward darkness, in almost equal measure. We alive today have both more material blessings and more terrible weapons than anyone in the past; why should we assume the future will be any different?
I suppose the important question is will automation change human nature if brought to the point where every want is fulfilled? Will our innate perversity lead us one way or the other? I think, or perhaps hope, that our spirit once released from toil of any labor will soar. Well, anyway, it's a nice Labor Day dream.
Once out of nature I shall never take
My bodily form from any natural thing,
But such a form as Grecian goldsmiths make
Of hammered gold and gold enamelling
To keep a drowsy Emperor awake;
Or set upon a golden bough to sing
To lords and ladies of Byzantium
Of what is past, or passing, or to come.
-- William Butler Yeats, Sailing to Byzantium
Mechanics.
Exactly. We will still need all those jobs you listed.
There is no way Robots will do anything which requires original & creative thinking.
Back in the late 1960’s I developed software which could generate all the tool motions required to machine a part on a computer controlled lathe, where only input required by the software was dimensions of the finished part and dimensions of the forged raw part weighing around 4000 lbs. So yes, the software took away the job of the programmer who previously had to define each of the 3000 tool motions needed to machine the part.
However our machining programmers did not lose any jobs, they simply became extremely more productive. And to load the 2 ton part in the lathe had to be done manually with a large overhead crane, because not too many robots can handle a 2 ton item. And since we were in the business of manufacturing custom engineered machines, we needed only ONE such part and it would be ridiculously impractical to program a monstrous robot to bring the part from storage and install it in the lathe one time. Robots are intrinsically for repeatative jobs.
So yes, robots and AI will do lots of jobs which are pre-defined and NEED MANY IDENTICAL parts processed.
You bring up a good point... middle class people will be forced down or up... the ones that go down will be competing with the lower classes for jobs.... the less than capable will be displaced and given this universal basic income ... then the market will be capped and prices will fall for goods and services ... so the profit motive of building and maintaining a robot / ai fleet will be negated... tax revenue to the government will be destroyed.... revolution .... global currency reset ... world government ... rise of the neoluddites!!!
It won’t become an $8/hour job because the supply of skilled technicians will always be short.
Right now there is a critical shortage of qualified workers to fill jobs. Only excess supply of workers is in jobs which requires very little training.
A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellows with compassion and vision
We’ll be clean when their work is done
We’ll be eternally free yes and eternally young
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
-Donald Fagen
For now, sure. However, once researchers unlock exactly how intelligence works, it can be scaled up in a manner that is similar to Moores law.
Some AI researchers are of a mindset that they wouldn’t be bothered by the idea of humanity being replaced by robots who were self aware and had a programmed drive to self improve or add to the body knowledge of the world.
https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/reports/2018-ai-predictions.html
-PJ
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