Posted on 01/02/2019 6:06:55 PM PST by blam
Alabama's offense has scored more points than ever for a myriad of reasons.
Tua Tagovailoa had the best statistical season for a Crimson Tide quarterback, thanks in part to the best set of skill-position players the program has ever collected.
But perhaps the biggest reason is Nick Saban's willingness to get more aggressive passing the ball.
"We may have to score more points to win this season than we have in the past," Saban told ESPN's Chris Lowe before the season.
As Alabama prepares to face Clemson on Monday to determine this season's national championship, Saban's inkling has proven to be a prophetic understatement.
According to Covers.com data, which goes back to 1985, Alabama's highest-ever betting total was 65 (vs. Georgia State in 2010). The Crimson Tide played in a total of four games with betting totals in the 60s prior to this season.
This year, Alabama's average betting total through 14 games is 62.5 points, based on the closing number at the Westgate SuperBook. The team has played eight games with a betting total of more than 60 this season alone.
The Crimson Tide broke the previous team record for highest betting total four times, including Saturday against Oklahoma (81).
What does that mean against Clemson?
Clemson can exploit Bama's occasional leaks
With a new coordinator in Tosh Lupoi, minus eight NFL draft picks and the entire starting secondary, Alabama's defense has been better than Saban expected, based on his preseason quote.
Quinnen Williams emerged as probably the most disruptive defensive tackle Saban has coached in Tuscaloosa, and safety Deionte Thompson developed into a first-round NFL prospect.
But Alabama's defense does rank 69th in IsoPPP, which means the unit is susceptible to allowing explosive plays in between all the tackles in the backfield.
Clemson running back Travis Etienne is second in the nation in runs of 20+ yards with 22. He averages nearly a first down per carry (8.3 yards) and ran a 10.5-second 100-meter dash in high school.
Dabo Swinney also replaced starting quarterback Kelly Bryant with Trevor Lawrence mid-season. Lawrence, a true freshman, was one of the most heralded high school quarterback prospects of the modern recruiting era.
Lawrence does not have the dual-threat ability of Oklahoma's Kyler Murray. But he's a pure passer who is taking advantage of Clemson's talented receivers, including Tee Higgins, Amari Rodgers (son of former Tennessee QB Tee Martin), Justyn Ross (2018 class signee who picked Clemson over Alabama) and Hunter Renfrow (caught game-winning touchdown pass against Alabama in the 2016-17 national championship).
Clemson's offense is capable of attacking in multiple ways, and has been nearly as explosive as Oklahoma and Alabama since Lawrence settled in as starting quarterback.
Tagovailoa can dominate if he avoids pass rush
Clemson also features the best defensive line in college football, even without suspended defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. It's nearly impossible to run against the Tigers, and the pass rush is lethal (nation-best 52 sacks).
But if you can get the ball out quick, or protect long enough for your receivers to get open downfield, it's possible to shred what is a below-average Clemson secondary.
If Tagovailoa's ankle doesn't limit his mobility too much, or get re-aggravated, he's capable of his fourth 300-yard passing day in Alabama's last five games. As long as he's content occasionally dumping off the ball fast to hot routes or connecting on quick slants rather than waiting on deep posts and risking sacks, the Tide offense can ride his left arm.
Players like Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Irv Smith Jr. could have big games running in the open field after catching passes.
A look at the Clemson-Alabama betting total
The consensus betting total is 59.5 as of Wednesday afternoon after opening as low as 54.5 at William Hill. That still may be too low.
Alabama's games have averaged 63.8 points this season.
Just three of Alabama's 14 games have finished with totals lower than 63, and the Alabama defense allowed a combined 10 points in those games (Missouri, LSU, Mississippi State). It's very unlikely that Alabama's defense will shut out or shut down Clemson's offense.
The two previous Clemson-Alabama national championship games featured 80 and 66 points.
Since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa in 2007, overs are 10-1 in the team's final game of the season, either a bowl game or a College Football Playoff championship. (The lone exception was a 21-0 win against LSU at the end of the 2011 season, a game that featured teams with very different styles than the ones we'll see Monday.)
Consider too that Clemson-Alabama meetings often feature an extra level of aggression, like the Tide's surprise onside kick in 2016.
It's possible that the team's defensive lines are so disruptive that the game finishes under the Vegas total. Or that a spate of unusual turnovers between these teams keeps the offenses out of the end zone.
But the most likely scenario is that both teams make some explosive plays on offense, and the quarterback that is able to land more haymakers is the one that leads his team to victory.
I like the over in this game.
"Alabama football and Clemson are the two best teams but a deep dive into Clemson stats shows the Tigers could be a bit over-rated.
Do you have a link to the posted article?
Here’s the matchup:
***Scoring***
#1 Scoring Team in college football: Bama
#2 Scoring Team in college football: Clemson
Bama- best team in College Football - but close.
Bama: #2 Offensive Scoring
Clemson: #2 Defensive Scoring
Even when Bama has the ball.
Clemson: #5 Offensive Scoring
Bama: #4 Defensive Scoring
Edge to Bama when Clemson has the ball
***Yardage***
Bama Offense: 2 in Pass, 18 in Run
Clemson Defense: 28 against pass, 1 against the run
Bama should pass almost all the time.
Clemson Offense: 31 in Pass, 1 in Run
Bama Defense: 11 against Pass, 16 against Rum
Clemson should run almost all the time.
Bama takes it.
Disregard. I found it
https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2019/01/expect_clemson-alabama_iv_to_p.html
Sorry about that.
Basically only two teams in the entire sport, for half a decade... that’s even worse than women’s basketball (college and pro). What’s the point of watching the entire year, when the final game is pretty well known in advance?
Save everyone the trouble and just mail Saban the Championship trophy at the end of the season every year. Boring.
Should be a great game
Buffalo Wings, beer, chips
There is nothing new under the sun. Most sports dynasties are not appreciated until hindsight save those who are on the bandwagon when the trophies are being gathered. Arguably the Yankees are in a class by themselves. One also thinks of the UCLA basketball under John Wooden. If you’re a college baseball fan, USC had a tremendous run. Oklahoma football had an impressive run in the 50s as did Nebraska in the 90s. The main thread is that most root against Goliath rather than cheer for David. There are some who love the pure sport of it all no matter the team but they are a true minority these days. I’ll be reading a book during the the Bama game nevertheless.
The over/under is 59.5. Thus, you need 60 points to win the over. It's not going to happen.
Under is a lock. Put it in the books.
Never go with prevailing wisdom in a Championship Game, in any sport.
I didn't write it. I just posted it.
I disagree. I see 67 as the over on this one.
I’m more interested in the Div 1 NCAA Championship.
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