Posted on 01/02/2019 6:28:33 PM PST by Bulwyf
2019 FROM A FOURTH TURNING PERSPECTIVE
“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Strauss and Howe wrote their book in 1996. They were not trying to be prophets of doom, but observers of history able to connect events through human life cycles of 80 or so years. Using critical thinking skills and identifying the most likely triggers for crisis: debt, civic decay, and global disorder, they were able to anticipate scenarios which could drive the next crisis, which they warned would arrive in the mid-2000 decade. The scenario described above is fairly close to the current situation, driven by the showdown between Trump and the Democrats regarding the border wall.
It has not reached the stage where all hell breaks loose, but if it extends until the end of January and food stamp money is not distributed to 40 million people (mostly in urban ghettos) all bets are off. The likelihood of this scenario is small, but there are numerous potential triggers which could still make 2019 go down in history as a year to remember.
As we enter the eleventh year of this Fourth Turning, the fourth Crisis period in U.S. history, the mood of U.S. citizens and citizens around the globe continues to darken. Fourth Turnings are driven by generational configuration and the emotional reaction to events by the Prophet generation leaders, Nomad generation spearheads, and Hero generation cannon fodder.
As we close out this year, stock markets are gyrating wildly, central bankers are trying to reverse their nine years of interventionist strategies to sustain the establishment, civil chaos spreads across the European continent, saber rattling between the U.S., Russia and China increases, the animosity between political parties reaches new heights, the Deep State relentlessly pursues their Mueller led coup against Trump, mega-social media corporations tighten their grip on free speech by silencing conservatives, leftists push their socialist, open borders, normalizing degeneracy agenda, and global recession gains momentum as trade declines and global debt reaches unserviceable levels.
Examining the three prior Fourth Turnings may give us a window into where we stand and what may happen in the coming year. We are in the tenth year of this Crisis, with the eleven-year anniversary slated for September 2019. The American Revolution Crisis was catalyzed in 1773 when the Boston Tea Party forever changed the colonial mood towards revolution. After eight years of struggle and desperate measures, the climax was reached with the surrender of Cornwallis at Yorktown in 1781.
But there was still thirteen more years of crisis as the new states forged a Constitution, elected Washington its first president, and he withstood the Jacobins, put down the Whiskey Rebellion and finalized a treaty with England. In year ten of the crisis, two years past the climax, the Treaty of Paris was signed, British troops left the continent, and Washington resigned as commander of American troops. The Articles of Confederation had been ratified in 1781 and remained in place until succeeded by the U.S. Constitution in 1789.
There was no tenth or eleventh year of the Civil War Crisis. Lincoln’s election with only 40% of the popular vote, prompting the attack on Fort Sumpter, and subsequent secession of Southern states, triggered the bloodiest conflict in world history, with 8% of all white men aged 13 to 43 killed in the war, including 6% in the North and 18% in the South. The acceleration of this Fourth Turning into a five-year window from 1860 to 1865 was not a positive development.
The extreme intensity of the conflict resulted in 700,000 tragic deaths. The catalyst occurred five years too soon and the resolution a generation too soon. A more extended crisis may have allowed tempers to moderate and the conflict to end in a more constructive manner. Instead, with the surrender at Appomattox and assassination of Lincoln, the resolution felt more like a defeat than a victory. Turmoil continued for at least a decade after the resolution.
The Great Depression/World War II Crisis saw its tenth and eleventh years as the most ominous, dangerous and destructive for Great Britain, as they bore the brunt of the German onslaught. 1939 saw the Nazi invasion of Poland and the official start of World War II. In May of 1940 Germany launched its blitzkrieg offensive through Holland and Belgium, defeating the French and British forces in a matter of weeks. Chamberlain resigned as Prime Minister, replaced by Churchill, as France surrendered in late June.
This is the first article I've tried to post. I hope I didn't fudge it too bad.
I agree with the premise of this article and think we're headed into some rocky terrain.
“I agree with the premise of this article and think we’re headed into some rocky terrain.”
Maybe the leftists are heading into “rocky terrain.”
I agree, but either way, it’s going to be rough all around. Mettle will be tested. Although, I’d rather do this now so my kids, your kids, kids in general don’t have to.
It is a good read.
Definitely makes you think.
I appreciate the author admitting too much uncertainty.
I do think the majority of us guys that keep mostly in the loop are generally aware of how bad things are.
I just think these authors really nailed it down well, essentially showing us how history repeats.
A good take away from an article like this would be to have a plan, and prepare.
Bump
“History does not repeat itself. It does, however sometimes rhyme “.
-Mark Twain.
I think the general idea is the same. It is to me anyways.
“A good take away from an article like this would be to have a plan, and prepare.”
Already done that.
Thanks for your (first) article post; this is interesting material and new to me. The original authors saw everything through their same generational glasses and overdid the analysis, but did make keen observations along the way. The tenth-eleventh year deal might have some meat to it.
:: The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. ::
Not possible.
It’s a long article, I saw that but didn’t focus on it. Heh. Nice one though.
What IS possible is a dispute over who has what authority, a divided chain of command, and an ACTUAL force-on-force civil war.
Commander of all military forces is quite clear.
Those forces are used to prosecute actions against enemies both foreign and domestic.
Martial law is not litigate-able as even the courts can be found in contempt of military order and arrested.
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