Posted on 09/12/2022 5:05:35 AM PDT by jacknhoo
If Ukraine opts for negotiations, Europe and the United States need to be ready to join.
Three months of Russia’s savagery against Ukraine have left little space in current policy discussions for considering a peace process. President Biden vows to strengthen Ukraine before any negotiations by providing more arms and funds, and tougher sanctions on Russia. Alongside that vital support for Ukraine’s defense, it is important to develop other ways to help Ukraine end bloodshed and protect its future. One track of policy should be preparation now for negotiations if that opportunity emerges. Crucial elements for a viable peace process already are visible: direct U.S. and European Union participation in specific talks, and a peacekeeping mission to prevent Russia’s consolidation of control over contested Ukrainian territory.
The United States and European Union can help draw Russia into talks with Ukraine by offering it parallel talks on their own relationships with Russia.
Negotiations: Under What Conditions?
Western governments are unified in declaring that any negotiation will be done by the Ukrainians based on their own needs and on their own timetable. Beyond that principle, the world has heard little public discussion of peacemaking ideas since March, when Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Turkey ended without result. Peace proposals outlined by Poland and Italy have not won broad support even within the European Union. The Russian atrocities at Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine have significantly dampened interest in negotiations. In early May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia would need to pull its troops back “behind the lines it held before February 24,” before any negotiations can happen. As combat has shifted toward a war of attrition that could offer significant advantages to Russia’s larger forces, U.S. and European politicians and commentators are divided over when it could make sense for Ukraine to consider peace talks.
Skeptics of any near-term negotiation fear that a cease-fire and talks would represent appeasement of Russia, letting it keep the 20 percent of Ukraine that it has seized militarily. This view holds that talks should be postponed until Russia is weakened or ideally defeated. Hazards of this approach include the danger that the costs of extended war could push Ukraine’s economy into collapse and erode public support for the war in Europe and North America. A separate risk is the deep uncertainty that Ukraine can force Russia out of the lands it has seized. Indeed, Russia could solidify its military control in eastern Ukraine and then offer a unilateral cease-fire, creating a Cold War-style “line of contact” and a long-term, grinding war with devastating consequences.
The other camp notes those heightened risks of a prolonged war and suggests that negotiating with Russia sooner can avoid worse political, economic and human losses. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger urged on May 23 that negotiations “need to begin in the next two months or so.” This approach carries two risks: It would not resolve underlying conflicts over Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity, or over European security issues, leaving them to fester, risking continued violence. Also, it could wind up conceding significant gains to an armed aggressor, undermining the global effort to sustain any kind of rules-based order.
The Imperative to Prepare
Why, then, prepare for peace talks now? A first reason is the unpredictability of war, which dictates that the advantageous moment for a shift to negotiations could appear without warning — and could disappear just as suddenly. A full strategy of support for Ukraine requires that its supporters help to prepare it to make the most of negotiations if and when Ukraine has the opportunity to benefit from them.
Thus, even as Western democracies rush arms and assistance to Ukraine, strategic preparation now for an eventual peace process can lead to a broader set of choices, with a better chance of success, as Ukraine’s government calculates its options. That preparation also positions Ukraine and its allies to more quickly halt bloodshed whenever conditions emerge for negotiations.
Russia and Ukraine currently have nothing to offer each other that could support peace talks to halt the war. Thus, a starting point in strategically preparing for talks is to envision a structure for negotiations that offers each side the chance to bargain for something it wants. In many wars — and assuredly in this one — enticing an aggressive belligerent like Russia into a peace process may require expanding the field for negotiations beyond the issues that triggered the hostilities.
Two Essentials for a Peace Process
A way to draw Putin into eventual peace talks — and into negotiating over his control of Ukrainian territory — will be to offer him the chance to bargain directly with the United States over his broader complaints. Essentially, this will mean a negotiation over what Putin thinks is Russia’s unfair marginalization as a great power and the security and economic threats to Russia of expanding NATO and EU strategic influence. Indeed, some have argued (against most evidence) that a root of the conflict lies not in Ukraine but in the Russian desire for a reform of the European security architecture. A viable peace process that creates a path for Ukraine to seek a recovery of territory seized by Russian arms will need to include these two elements:
Broaden a peace process beyond simply Russia-Ukraine negotiations to include a separate negotiation that includes Europe and NATO. To encourage Russia to make difficult concessions to Ukraine (notably a withdrawal from territories Russia has seized in war), the peace process should proceed simultaneously on three levels. Russia-Ukraine talks would address their bilateral disputes. Second, Russian talks with the European Union and Ukraine would aim to reset their relations (disrupted since 2014) and seek agreement on economic and security arrangements for countries, like Ukraine, that lie between Russia and the EU zone. Given the failures of earlier diplomacy, involving the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to resolve the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it will be necessary to reform that organization and re-establish it as a long-term confidence-building measure to prevent future regional conflicts. Finally, Russia talks with NATO and the United States would take up issues of strategic stability and the U.S.-Russian relationship in the world order. While some would argue that broadening the negotiations would just reward Putin for his use of force, only this full combination of negotiations, equal and interlocking, might entice him into making concessions to Ukraine. Keep the status of Ukrainian territories seized by Russia undetermined pending the completion of negotiations. To avoid the risk of Russia consolidating its control over parts of Ukraine it has captured, a peace process could establish that space as a buffer zone under U.N. or other third-party control until negotiations are complete. This would require a peacekeeping mission of some kind in that zone. This step also would serve as a confidence-building measure until a negotiated solution can be reached. The longer the war goes on, the more opportunity Russia will have to cement its hold on the substantial swaths of territory Ukraine has lost already with “facts on the ground,” and to cover up war crimes there. Internationalizing the negotiations and inserting peacekeepers could win time and space to achieve a better outcome through non-military means. As in any war, the lengthening of the conflict, the losses on each side and the political entrenchment of belligerents’ demands can make it more difficult, or even politically dangerous, for leaders to make concessions. The better chance of winning concessions will come from a broad process that can address the many issues in dispute, including many that risk hardening in place a new Cold War. These will include nuclear arms control, cyber warfare, Russia’s role in distant conflict zones, and mutual accusations by Russia and the West that each is interfering in the other’s political systems. While Ukraine’s territorial integrity and status seem like the biggest obstacles to a peace deal, issues such as the investigation of war crimes, accountability for rebuilding Ukraine and Russia’s future role in the region may prove more difficult.
Critically, the European Union and Russia will have to reset their relationship, which collapsed after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. Europe’s sanctions on Russia and divestment from dependency on Russian oil and gas pose long-term costs for both sides. Enticing Putin to offer concessions to Ukraine might be achieved by creating a broader zone for negotiating his complaints against Europe, the United States and NATO. The key to all three negotiations is to ensure that they include regional neighbors and that all sides see a chance to make political and economic gains at different tables while also creating disincentives for prolonging the war. The question is not whether to talk to the Russians or not, it’s what to talk to them about — and when.
"As in any war, the lengthening of the conflict, the losses on each side and the political entrenchment of belligerents’ demands can make it more difficult, or even politically dangerous, for leaders to make concessions."
The only thing to negotiate is Russia’s complete departure from Ukraine.
“The only thing to negotiate is Russia’s complete departure from Ukraine.”
______________________________
Hillary Clinton, is that you?
That could change only if Putin takes a dirt nap or his allies in the Politburo abandon him.
Thank you, President Zelenskyy President Putin President Biden Secretary-General Guterres Dr. Kissinger anonymous Freeper posting from your parents' basement!
;>)
Negotiations, finally a call for Peace? Either way, Ukraine will still get carved up. Vlad will never give up the ethnic Russian provinces he has liberated.
Prolonging this conflict insures the Ukies will be carved up like a Christmas turkey…..fighting Vlad down to the last Ukrainian….there will be no one left to administer/ protect a post war Ukraine, they have already lost a decade of young males….Why is the corrupted little beggar Zelensky demilitarizing his own country?
The late Saeb Erekat-remember him? He had a PHD in Peace Studies. Died in a Jewish hospital. A waste of human skin.
George McGovern had a masters in economics.
“Vlad will never give up the ethnic Russian provinces he has liberated.”
Ummmm looks like Vlad has done just that in the Kharkiv oblast....
>The only thing to negotiate is Russia’s complete departure from Ukraine.
The only thing it negotiate is NATO’s return to the Minsk agreement.
Why do people think that if Putin isn’t there a new and friendly guy will appear who allows the west to turn Russia into the Liberal World Order puppet state?
This is obviously what the west wants. I don’t want the LWO here and I imagine people there would not want it either.
I wonder what this is all about...
1 hour ago
Expert: Authorities are preparing to change the status of a special operation in Ukraine
National News Service
The Russian authorities are preparing to change the status of the
special military operation in Ukraine. This was announced by the
political strategist Marat Bashirov. Kadyrov announced the return of
elite fighters to the Donbass “A change in the status of the NMD is
being prepared,” the expert wrote in his Telegram channel. At the
same time, Bashirov did not specify what he had in mind,
Radiotochka NSN reports. “Let the official authorities announce it,”
the political strategist said. Earlier, the State Duma proposed to give
the special operation in Ukraine the status of counter-terrorism. In
particular, such an initiative was made by the leader of the Just
Russia - For Truth party, Sergei Mironov., reminds RIA FAN. The
politician suggested that the operation to protect Donbass could
turn into a “counter-terrorist operation with all the ensuing
consequences.”
Peace can be achieve when and only when Russia’s invading force goes home.
I do hope the recent Ukrainian victories will lead to peace. Ukraine could gain a complete victory, but how many more years of fighting and destruction to take Crimea?
Better to sign a deal that gives up Crimea in exchange for Russian retreat from the rest of the country, and Ukraine’s ability to join the EU and unofficially NATO.
A thousand+ Russian tanks depleted. There is something to be said for allowing it to get this far. Far enough? Throughout history a negotiated settlement usually ends up in a truce until the next skirmish. It didn’t happen with Japan where unconditional surrender was the demand. Russia made it’s own bed. Europe is strong enough to handle them on their own. Russia is late to the party and should pay the price until they learn that honey is better than vinegar.
LOL, it means the Ruskies are getting their hiney's kicked.
And thank you, President Zelenskyy President Putin President Biden Secretary-General Guterres Dr. Kissinger anonymous Freeper #2 posting from unknown location #2!
;>)
When confronted with a military superpower like Ukraine, a corruption laden and militarily incompetent minor regional player like Russia cannot truly resist, and continued fighting only needlessly prolongs the suffering.
I’m not on any side, but I am on the side of peace - and if the cause of peace requires Russia to make some minor territorial concessions like giving Ukraine a landbridge to Georgia and Kazakhstan, then they should resist their North Korean masters and do it.
Warmongers are always loudest, and will no doubt shout me down as an appeaser for being willing to consider making Ukrainian the official language of Russia. So be it. I will sleep soundly tonight, knowing I did not push Russia to keep fighting a hopeless war over symbolism!
I have naught but contempt for those who sit comfortable on their indoor toilets while demanding Russia keep fighting even as inflation and sanctions ravage the Iranian and North Korean taxpayers bankrolling its quixotic last stand against the unstoppable Ukrainian juggernaut.
I will leave you all with this: peace is priceless, a flag is just a cloth, and a single life is an entire world. Who are you to ask Russia to sacrifice worlds when raising a simple cloth over St. Petersburg, a city you likely never heard of before this war, could mean peace?
I'm tryin' real hard to see a down side to that!
Regards,
Tass:
12 SEP, 04:03
No negotiating prospects with Ukraine at this time seen by Kremlin
Speaking of demand for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposal to organize talks between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, Peskov stressed that “currently there are no conditions for this”
MOSCOW, September 12. /TASS/. There are no prospects for talks with Ukraine at this time, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters at a briefing on Monday.
“Currently, we do not see any negotiating prospects and we continue stating the absence of any conditions for such talks,” the Kremlin official said replying to a question on the matter.
Speaking of demand for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposal to organize talks between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, Peskov stressed that “currently there are no conditions for this.”
TAGS
Foreign policy Dmitry Peskov
;>)
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