Missouri: Kit Bond leads by 10 points, Democrats are hopeful

Roll Call ^ | March 2, 2004

[Clintonfatigued]

Senator Kit Bond held a 10-point lead over state Treasurer Nancy Farmer in a recent poll contucted for the Democrat's campaign.

[Clintonfatigued]

PING!

[JohnnyZ]

Another 5-point win for Bond in November. {YAWN}

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Another 5-point win for Bond in November."

---

Probably, unless it's a 6% win. Missouri is pretty evenly divided, and Bond never wins by a lot, but the Democrats have run much better candidates than Nancy Farmer and fallen short against Bond. If the Democrats were really "hopeful" about beating Bond they wouldn't be running a third-tier candidate.

Although I must say that those BALCO accusations could adversely affect Bond's reelection efforts. : )

[Clintonfatigued]

I'm glad you're confident. This race worries me. The only time Bond ever won by a double-didget margin was when he won his first term as governor, and that was in 1972.

[KQQL]

Senator Kit Bond held a 10-point lead over state Treasurer Nancy Farmer in a recent poll contucted for the Democrat's campaign.

PARTISIAN POLLSTER ARE ALL CRAPOLA ~

[KQQL]

Bond 52% - Farmer 35% - Undecided 13%
Research 2000
MOE+/-4% (Likely Voters) 01/30/04

[Abram]

I too am worried about this race. MO is pretty evenly divided. I am also concerned about some of the Southern Races. GA I think that we can win. The Carolina's, depending on the economy come election day, we can see both those seats being held by the Ds. OK could be lost, but with Coburn in the race, that might help out our chances for retention. LA might be hard to win with John on the ticket, even with a top-tier candidate like Vitter. Dashcle is going to be tough too with Thune. I hope it breaks the other way, the potential for Thune winning this one is going to be tough. I haven't heard much about ND/NV...have we mananged to recruit a top candidate yet on these races?

I am curious also about the IL race. The Hill had an interesting article about Obama and Ryan this week. Ryan is plagued with the "unfortunate" last name and both of them need to emerge from their respective primaries.

I am also concerned about PA. Toomney is pretty popular on this board, but can he win state wide? Specter is pretty much going to cruise to victory if he wins the primary.

Now with Nighthorse-Cambell out, is McInnis going to run? What if it is Udall running? Webb and Strickland can probably be beat again, but Udall is a popular/well-known name even though he is a stark-raving liberal.

I don't have a lot of hope for Nethercutt or Jones (WA/CA respectively) no matter what my fellow Rs in WA tell me.

Any updates/news would be very helpful (or if you know a ping list I can join on the Senate races????)

Cheers

[Clintonfatigued]

Thanks for the posting. Here's how it looks. Georgia is a likely pick-up. In fact, the 'Rats seem resigned to losing the seat. SC and NC are promising, but uncertain. In NC, Republicans have a good candidate in Congressman Richard Burr, but 'Rat Irksome Bowels starts out much better-known. SC is a Republican state, but job outsourcing is HIGHLY unpopular there and hurting Republicans. Also, the 'Rats have an articulate, well-known candidate in Inez Tennenbaum, while Republicans have a multi-candidate primary that hasn't generated any excitement. In Louisiana, you're right about Chris John being formidible, but he's saddled with a better-known primary challenger, while David Vitter (R) is well-funded and has a united party behind him. OK should not have turned out to be such a tough race, but the Republican establishment united behind a candidate without much name I.D. or ability to excite the grass roots, and now have a multi-candidate primary. Meanwhile, the 'Rats have a likeable, young moderate (Brad Carson) whose running strong in the polls. In Pennsylvania, Patrick Toomey is conservative on social issues (no problem) and from outside the Philadelphia & Pittsburg media markets (potential problem). But he's a free-trader who supports Most Favored Trade status for China and Fast Track Trade Authority for the President (Do you really want to say Senator Joe Hoeffel?). Illinois is interesting. Jack Ryan's last name is a problem, but so is Barak Obama's. Furthermore, the 'Rat primary has become very nasty. We'll know this Tuesday who the nominees are. In Colorado, we have little to worry about if Gov. Bill Owens enters the race. Harry Reid of Nevada is favored to win another term, but he has a history of polling stronger in opinion polls than on election day, so an upset is possible. North Dakota has been written off by Republicans. In Washington, Patty Murray is favored, but her praise of Osama Bin Laden and reputation as an airhead on Capitol Hill gives George Nethercutt a chance. Barbara Boxer of California is likely to win, and Bill Jones is a second-tier candidate. His only hope is that Boxer remains plagued by low approval ratings. That's how it stands now.