Rasmussen 10/29: Bush 50 Kerry 48 (Head-to-Head Race:)

RealClearPolitics ^ | 10/29/04 | Rasmussen

[Tuxedo]

Here it is. Bush 50 Kerry 48.

[CatOwner]

You;ve linked RCP, but are quoting Rasmussen, which doesn't show the numbers yet (I've refreshed several times). Huh?

[Tuxedo]

Yep, RCP has the 10/29 results, but the link goes to yesterday's numbers. Methinks RCP got the heads up. Will post more when more data available.

[comebacknewt]

This looks like Ras's numbers from yesterday with leaners included.

[Tuxedo]

Check RCP site, they list this as 10/29 numbers.

[Tuxedo]

Friday October 29, 2004--Four days to go and President Bush is still up by two points in his bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.7% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46.7%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When leaners are included, it's Bush 49.5% Kerry 47.9. Other Candidates attract 0.8% and 1.8% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote).

The data suggests a range of plausible outcomes are possible next Tuesday.

If Senator Kerry has a good final weekend and the Democratic ground game is very effective, the Senator could win a narrow victory (possibly even winning the Electoral College without winning the popular vote).

At the other extreme, if President Bush has a good final weekend and the GOP ground game is very effective, he could win a fairly comfortable victory (4-5 points in the popular vote, 330+ Electoral Votes).

The final possibility is that the numbers stay right where they are and the President is narrowly re-elected. In that case, all eyes will be on Ohio.

[CatOwner]

Well, if you go to Rasmussen now, it is Bush 48.7%, Kerry 46.7%. I suggest pulling this thread and starting over.

[snooker]

All politics is local :)

Just ran into a neighbor. Her daughter is a rabid rabid rabid Bush hater. Oh did I say her daughter was a rabid Bush hater? She is a Clinton legal appointee. They just came back from voting.

"How did it go" says I -- "went fine", says the wife, "we voted for Bush". Say what says I getting up from the ground, "Bush?". "Yep, we aren't changing Presidents now, no way", says the neighbor.

Walking off in stunned silence, then breaking out laughing when out of ear shot.

No one wants to get blowed up ---

[kesg]

I disagree with Rasmussen's analysis of possible outcomes, even leaving aside my problems with his methodology of using automated phones rather than live human beings to do his polling. He weights his polls by party affiliation based on the 2000 election, in which Republicans underperformed (turnout was 39%D, 35R, and 26I -- as if the millions of dollars that the RNC has spent the last four years on revamping and upgrading their GOTV model and four years of incumbency in the White House isn't going to have any positive effect on Republican turnout this year. Sorry, that dog won't hunt.

Here is how I see it.

1. If the turnout numbers mirror 2000, either because the Republicans once again screw the pooch in GOTV or because the Democrats improve their operation by as much or more than the Republicans do, then Bush is ahead nationally by about two points and the election will be close. This is what Rasmussen is showing, as well as other polls who use the 2000 turnout numbers, including Zogby and the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll. Even here, Bush may do slightly better than two points as long as his job approval rating stays at or above 50%.

2. If the Republicans poll even or within one point of the Democrats, Bush will win by about five to six points. The Battleground Poll assumes that turnout will be even, while Time's poll assumes that Republicans will be within one point of the Democrats -- and both show Bush leading by five points. Gallup also has Bush winning by five points in the poll they released earlier this week. I consider this outcome to be the most likely outcome on Tuesday, which is why I think Bush will win by about 52-46.

3. Last, if the Republicans improve their GOTV as expected, but the Democrats don't do as well -- a very distinct possibility this year -- it will be a blowout for Bush. The chances that Bush will blow out Kerry are not as good as the chances that he will win comfortably by 5-6 points, but I think they are much better than the chances that Republican turnout will be as bad or worse than in 2000.

[dondegr8]

Well said! At least 34 states for Bush (Bush 2000 states plus Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota) next Tuesday, maybe more !