Giuliani continues to drop in early GOP contests

The Carpetbagger Report ^ | November 28, 2007

[2ndDivisionVet]

It’s still early in the process, and a lot can happen in the next few weeks, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to see how Rudy Giuliani’s campaign survives a series of early (and humiliating) defeats.

In Iowa, Giuliani has gone from first to third, and he’s not done dropping yet. In New Hampshire, Giuliani is either a distant second possibly even third.

And then there’s South Carolina, where Giuliani was, up until fairly recently, hanging onto to a first-place lead. Not anymore.

On the heels of polls showing Rudy dropping fast in New Hampshire and out of contention in Iowa, a new poll finds him sinking fast in a third key state: South Carolina. The Clemson University poll finds Mitt Romney now taking the lead with 17%, followed by Fred Thompson at 15%, Mike Huckabee with 13%, John McCain at 11% — and Rudy at only 9%.

In September, Giuliani was leading the field. Now, he’s fifth? In a one of the three big early contests, and the South’s first primary?

What’s more, in each of these states, Mitt Romney is in first. In other words, in the first three contests, Romney is poised to go 3-for-3, and Giuliani will be lucky to come in second in maybe one of the races.

Tell me again why Giuliani is considered the frontrunner?

I realize the Giuliani campaign claims to have a plan.

I just got off a conference call with Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime and strategist Brent Seaborn, the upshot of which (according to them) was that Giuliani could come out of the first 3-4 states without a single win and still have a relatively clear path to the nomination. The thinking hinges on the 57 winner-take-all votes available in Florida on January 29, where Giuliani has a comfortable lead, and the more than 200 winner-take-all votes available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware on February 5. Much was also made of Giuliani’s commanding (nearly two-to-one) lead in the national polls.

All in all, it sounded like a concession that Giuliani is not going to do very well in the first few contests, an outcome the campaign was understandably at pains to minimize. Hence the promise of February 5. Though DuHaime said the campaign hadn’t reconciled itself to a “February 5th strategy,” as Joseph Curl of The Washington Times pointed out, it pretty much sounded like one in practice.

Anything’s possible, but I just don’t see it. To reiterate a point I raised a few weeks ago, the thing about losing repeatedly is that one starts to look like a loser. That’s particularly true if an assumed frontrunner can’t actually win when people start voting.

But, Giuliani staffers say, what about all the national polls that show the former mayor in the lead? Well, what about them? National polls can change on a dime, which is why they’re interesting for showing broader trends, but hold almost no predictive value. John Kerry was hurting badly in the national polls until Dems nationwide saw him on their front pages winning big in Iowa and New Hampshire. Wouldn’t you know it, his standing in the national polls quickly skyrocketed.

But how can Romney, with minimal national name recognition, catch up after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina? It’s not that complicated.

If Romney wins three or more of the first four primary contests, it’s hard to see him losing in Florida, at which point the math starts to get tough for Giuliani. Sure, Rudy has a solid base in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, but that may be moot by that point, since national momentum will probably boost Romney in many of the non-Northeastern states the Giuliani camp currently points to, like California, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio.

Given this landscape, expect Giuliani to get increasingly aggressive (which, in his case, means more lying, smearing, and exaggerating). I don’t think he has any other choice.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Fred is in a statistical tie with Romney in South Carolina. Anyone here see a pro-amnesty, pro-abortion Mormon Yankee beating a Southerner in S.C.? Please explain that to me, okay?

[aruanan]

The bottom’s going to drop out of Giuliani like Calypso Louie’s rectum.

[COgamer]

Good news...

I know the entire premise of tonight’s debate was thoroughly lambasted, but I think it did (well, from what I read in the threads) a great job of showing weakness in some candidates that hadn’t necessarily been displayed before. That’s exactly what we needed - people to see that some of these candidates are made of clay, their opinions and policies completely malleable for the right price, and others are made of steel.

[Bobbisox]

Good news yes. However, Fred is also dropping, can you explain that to me?

[John Valentine]

You are pointing out to me the one thing that I at least am at almost a complete loss to explain. Maybe Vet can.

But, here’s my theory:

I just assume that most folks aren’t as engaged as the folks on this board and they are getting their view of things filtered through the poison machine of the MSM.

When there was a “will he or won’t he” drumbeat on the MSM, interest was piqued. later when they started in on the falling, can’t win, lazy, no fire, no substance, they bought it. I think these people will come back, but time is passing...