Posted on 10/10/2008 12:01:16 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Pollster John Zogby says the presidential race is still too close to call and could come down to the very last weekend before voters decide if they like or distrust Barack Obama.
With non-stop favorable coverage by the media, Obama should be twenty or more points ahead.
The report at the link below says:
Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.
Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn’t embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.
Polls showed Walter Mondale ahead of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Mike Dukakis ahead of George H.W. Bush in 1988. In 2000 polls showed Al Gore ahead and in 2004 polls showed John Kerry ahead.
This can only suggest that “push polling” was used.
There are many forms of “push polling.” The most common is to include more of one major political party than the other in the sampling base. Also, questions to respondents can be worded so that the desired result is obtained.
This year “push polling” is even easier by simply including a larger percent of blacks in the sample to show an Obama lead.
A discussion about polling should also include the exit polling on election day in 2004.
The early exit polls from precincts in Virginia showed an overwhelming lead for John Kerry, which had the Kerry Edwards campaign singing and dancing until the real vote counts came in.
It was an obvious ploy to try to influence voters in western states by showing a Kerry win in the making.
Once those states make the list, it's permanent.
GREAT NEWS! MAY WE BE SAVED FRON THIS OBAMANATION!
Job two: Sick Sarah on McCain and reign him in from any across-the-aisle RINO shenanigans and nonsense, like Shamnesty Para Los Miliones, for the next four years
Job three: Get ready to run VP Palin for President in 2012 vs. Hilary Clinton
Job four: Get ready for a good solid eight years of Ronald Reagan conservatism
McCain should call him a poopyhead right now! That’ll swing the voters.
I suspect, with no proof, that this observation is all about disinformation so that left wingnuts don't assume the game is in the bag and therefore turn out to vote B. Hussein just to make sure.
Why would people vote for the party that caused the problem we are in.
Getting accurate polls in terms of absolute numbers is nearly impossible these days. Pollsters only call home numbers. Only a small percentage of people ever answer their home number, if they even have one. Many people only have cell phones. Many more simply let it go to voice mail or an answering machine. Pollsters only reach a tiny fraction of those they call, then have to choose some formula to exptrapolate how that sample represents the public at large, and who is going to be a likely voter.
So are polls worthless? No. They do show trends. Clearly Obama lost ground for a while, then gained ground recently. But who leads and by how many points is conjecture at best.
Zogby has always been a very reliable pollster.
zogby was an anti-bush pollster, could it be he’s pro mccain this round?
Most of the voting public still believe that the Repubicans are to blame for the current economy.
Very interesting. Was that the pool arrangement several of the networks and wire services had?
If not, do you happen to know which MSM perps were involved?
Thanks for posting this, btw. This is need-to-know info.
If you look at internals in Rasmussen for example. McCain is only ahead 2 points among men..If this were truly to hold then of course we would lose. Zogby has McCain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OowxMcVTjTE
People don’t pay attention to what is going on they just watch the MSM channels and believe everything they tell them. That is the problem!
He was anti-bush, but his polls were pretty accurate.
Need a different Speaker, tho'..... Newt was wasted as Speaker, and IMHO didn't do a good job, either. Slick waxed him repeatedly. Newt needs to stay in the realm of ideas and practical agenda, and stay away from the personalities, horse-trading, and org stuff.
So you like his “special sauce”?
That went right over my head. I have no idea what you are talking about.
The polls generally become more accurate in the last few weeks of the election. Zogby has been "hit or miss" in this area depending on the race and the region. His "special sauce" has been laughed at over the years here because of how he either questionably weights his polls or a review of the questionaire reveals leading questions that yield a specific set of results.
Zogby can be accurate to a degree, however in this race I have to agree, anything goes and I don't believe there's an accurate assessment of the underlying distrust the populace has for the Obomber.
Thank you for the explanation.
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