Posted on 07/23/2010 12:40:39 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I guess its time we did. Palin is one of the top two contenders for the nomination right now. She is the only candidate with an actual and substantial popular base of support, the only one who can generate real popular enthusiasm. She has little in the way of an organization of her own, but shes the candidate in the best position to coopt the organization that the Tea Party Movement is building. And to the extent that her endorsements are perceived to have made a real difference in the primaries (as, after Georgia, they are beginning to be), that will speak loudly to local GOP bigwigs.
Her strongest competition is Mitt Romney, who is strong where Palin is weak obvious intelligence, establishment backing, proven ability to run an actual campaign for President, strong organizational skills and a deep political organization but who is strikingly weak where Palin is strong. In fact, Romney is pretty much exactly the candidate Palin wants to run against: someone who generates little popular enthusiasm, comes off as phony, is a member of the elite and the establishment, is easy to tar as a fence-sitter and position-changer and a man with surprisingly little sex appeal for somebody so objectively good-looking. And he got beat last time by a guy with no organization, no money, and who nobody in the GOP establishment really wanted to see win. And hes a Mormon. Whose first career was as a Wall Street banker. Who signed a health care plan as governor of Massachusetts that looks a lot like the one President Obama signed for the whole country. Dont get me wrong Romney has a very real shot at the nomination. But hes not the strongest horse Ive ever seen.
Who else is in the race? Huckabee is weaker than Palin where she is strong and not notably strong where she is weak and hes at least as unacceptable to the powers that be in the GOP. And then theres the parade of governors Jindal, Pawlenty, Barbour, Daniels, Perry, possibly Christie or somebody else Ive forgotten. Once upon a time Mark Sanford was on that list. And then theres Newt Gingrich, a man who may actually have more Republican enemies than Democratic ones. I really do feel like if any of these guys was going to be a serious contender, wed have heard about it by now. Pawlentys the only one whos definitely running, and Perry is the only one who could consolidate a lot of support quickly if the opportunity arose.
That makes it sound like weve basically got a two-person race and well see who wins. But the GOP establishment, such as it is, must be terrified of a Palin campaign, and will want to quash her candidacy somehow. After all, if she runs against them, and wins, then theyve been defeated. Thats bad enough. If she then runs disastrously in the general election and all indications are that she would the party suffers a massive defeat. Thats worse. And if she wins the general election? Well, lets leave aside what that means for the country and assume were just dealing with self-interested individuals worried about their own political futures. If Sarah Palin wins the Presidency, then she reshapes her party to suit her preferences. And anybody who came out strongly against her will be in the doghouse for years. She is not a with malice toward none, with charity for all type of Republican.
Moreover, even if they get on-board with her, I have a hard time picturing them being comfortable trusting her. Again, assume they dont care whether she has any idea what shes doing and assume they dont care what happens to the country. Just in terms of political trust will this person return my favors; will this person play the game Palins got to have a really high wall to climb. Really high.
So no doubt they want to stop her before it gets to that point. How can they do it?
They cant expect the gasbags to do it for them, because its not in their interest. Attacking Palin would be bad business for Limbaugh or Beck or whoever if only because it would divide their audience. They cant expect the mainstream media to do it for them because of the limited influence the regular media has in Republican circles. And they cant do it themselves directly because they dont act in concert, and anybody who sticks his neck out first is liable to get it chopped off.
Their first, entirely reasonable hope is going to be that she does it to herself. That she fails to build an effective network of support. That she has a massive falling out with leaders of the Tea Party over some esoteric point or other. That she gets blamed for some high-profile midterm losses and responds by lashing out at her critics, making her seem like even more of a loser. That she just gets old, and people move on to something new. If any of that happens, the race opens up. And all of that is very possible. Im skeptical that Palin can easily be stopped by anybody outside pointing out her deficiencies. But one debate where she looks scared of the competition, or where she comes off as whiny and defensive, and should could drop like a rock, because shes a celebrity candidate; if her persona cracks she has nothing to fall back on.
But if her strategy works on her terms, then the GOP has a problem.
If that happens, the GOP will need to convince Romney to go kamikaze. Which may not be that hard. Romney has absolutely got to win this time. Palin could put together a career as a media superstar or political kingmaker even if she loses, provided she goes out the right way. Huckabee certainly seems to be enjoying his show. The various worthy governors probably have as good a shot in 2016 as they do now, assuming the GOP loses in 2012. Heck, they all probably would settle for Vice President anyway, and its pretty easy to see Jindal or Daniels taking the job of being President Palins brain. But Romneys already been running for President for four years. Hes got nowhere else to go. And he has no hope of having a role in a Palin Administration. While others might have reason to appease Palin, Romney has none. The only reason for him not to try to destroy her is if he thinks hes more likely to win without doing that, and in the scenario were worrying about thats not the case. Of course, throwing everything at her probably damages Romney more than it does her but he may have no choice at some point but to try it. And if he can damage her enough that both of them have very high negatives among Republicans, then someone like Rick Perry could enter relatively late, swoop in and snatch the nomination. And Romney can console himself with being Treasury Secretary or something.
So thats the way I expect things to play out. One or two very plausible candidates who may not be sure about running will wait in the wings for a bit. If Palin flames out and Romney doesnt connect, then we have an open race. If it looks like Romney is running away with it, they stay out. If it looks like a Palin insurgency could actually win, pressure comes down on Romney to put her away, and the new establishment favorite becomes the candidate that the Palinites can reconcile themselves to.
I should say, as an aside, that we should all really hope that Palin does not get the nomination, whether were Republicans or Democrats. I admit, I liked her for about five minutes, before she opened her mouth. But, as I later concluded, shes a shallow and demagogic politician, someone who would be an absolute disaster for the country. I know there are some Democrats who think itd be a good thing if she were nominated because shed be easier to beat, but the big drivers of the election are going to be the unemployment rate and events on the war front, and if both go badly the Republicans could probably nominate a ham sandwich and get some traction. Theyd certainly be able to get some traction with a nominee who has the keen gut instincts that a successful demagogue like Sarah Palin has to have.
No... its me the extremely extreme extremist...
That wasn’t Newt sitting on a bench with Pelosi?
Yes it was.. pretty sneaky of him to glom on to a visit with the Queen of Mean.. the Queen of Hearts.. in the democrat wonderland..
Shes merely a brain dead demon possessed democrat...
Taking a good shower can wash all that off...
Shuush.. (secret communique) DEMOCRATS TALK TOO MUCH... he's a genius...
Sorry but there’s no shower in the world going to clean Newt off from that.
You want CLEAN?... CLEAN?... Politics is dirty..
The only clean you're gong to get is a delusion...
Democrats are very good at that.. having "clean" candidates..
Nothing dirtier than a RINO... filthy turncoats..
Like: Snarlin Arlen.. the demos are riding him like a rented donkey..
Also; anyone elected from Maine.. or Mass...
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