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Florida suddenly looks very different: If you thought Mitt's big lead in SC evaporated fastů
Salon's War Room ^ | January 23, 2012 | Steve Kornacki

Posted on 01/23/2012 6:27:29 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Presumably, polling data that is more comprehensive and authoritative will be released in the next few days, but the initial indicators point to a Florida primary race that has been utterly transformed by Newt Gingrich’s resurgence.

Just a week ago, when he was coming off victories in Iowa* and New Hampshire and seemed on his way to a convincing South Carolina win, three different polls in the Sunshine State gave Mitt Rommey an average lead of 22 points, with Newt Gingrich running a very distant second in one of them and third (behind Rick Santorum) in the other. But now a new one-day survey from Insider Advantage conducted on Sunday finds Gingrich ahead by eight points, 34 to 26 percent, while the polling firm PPP announced late Sunday that the first night of its three-day poll in the state found a virtual tie, with just two more respondents out of 600 choosing Romney than Gingrich.

Mind you, there are some asterisks here. Insider Advantage is run by one of Gingrich’s former political lieutenants, Matt Towery, and its polling track record hasn’t always been reliable. And the results from just one night of polling can be deceptive (although it should be noted that PPP’s final night of polling in South Carolina ended up being virtually identical to the actual results the next day).

But it wouldn’t be surprising at all if the race in Florida now is a dead heat, or if Gingrich has even moved ahead, because Florida has been the epicenter of volatility in what has been an almost absurdly volatile GOP race. Just over a month ago, Gingrich found himself sitting on a gigantic lead in the state — 48 to 25 percent in a CNN poll and 47-17 in PPP’s. Those advantages evaporated as a Romney-aligned Super PAC moved into the state with an ad barrage and as panicked national Republican voices spent December chipping away at Gingrich’s standing with the party base. When the glowing press that accompanied his apparent successes in Iowa and New Hampshire was added to the mix, Romney suddenly looked invincible in Florida.

But the Republican universe in Florida is about as conservative and Tea Party-friendly as South Carolina’s. So if Gingrich could rally the GOP base back to his cause in the Palmetto State, there’s every reason to expect him to do the same in the Sunshine State, at least initially.


TOPICS: Florida; Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: gingrich; newt; polls; romney
Milt is in the process of trying some fancy trickery with absentee ballots (how Goresque!) which I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this coming week.
1 posted on 01/23/2012 6:27:37 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Rasmussen just released his numbers for Florida.

Newt 41 Mutt 32

Rasmussen Reports

2 posted on 01/23/2012 6:34:13 AM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC AND THE MEDIA: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: Yankee

The problem is they’ve thrown everything they can at Newt, including the bitter ex-wife. My Florida-domiciled mother had concerns about Newt’s past marital infidelity. I talked to her yesterday, and even she agreed the ex-wife thing was disgusting. As things stand now, she plans to vote for Newt in the primary.


3 posted on 01/23/2012 6:36:30 AM PST by Thane_Banquo
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To: Yankee

Oh boy.

I hope they are keeping Newt safe. I just really almost fear for his life at this point.


4 posted on 01/23/2012 6:37:04 AM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Thane_Banquo

And the great Sarah Palin and Jim Robinson have endorsed Newt. Plus a lot of Tea party leaders. (But, of course, we all know the Tea Party no longer matters, because Nancy Pelosi said so.)


5 posted on 01/23/2012 6:41:49 AM PST by w1andsodidwe (Barrak has now won the contest. He is even worse than Jimmah.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

When is the primary?


6 posted on 01/23/2012 6:46:01 AM PST by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: w1andsodidwe
And the great Sarah Palin and Jim Robinson have endorsed Newt.

I knew Todd Palin had endorsed Newt, but I hadn't heard that Sarah had done so. When did that happen?

7 posted on 01/23/2012 6:47:03 AM PST by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.)
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To: MEGoody

Sarah actually endorsed Newt about 5 days ago. (Like it or not.)


8 posted on 01/23/2012 6:53:40 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
BWAHAHAHAHA
...when he was coming off victories in Iowa*

The asterick leads to this...Oh, by the way, Mitt probably lost Iowa

9 posted on 01/23/2012 6:58:06 AM PST by philman_36 (Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty, and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
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To: Yankee

Scott Rasmussen on with Martha McCallum now. He’s stating that folks clearly see Newt as taking the fight to Obama, not Romney! Woot!


10 posted on 01/23/2012 7:01:21 AM PST by CAluvdubya (My preferred taglines are not in the running...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

More proof that reports of the Tea Party demise are greatly exaggerated. The GOP establishment is deeply saddened.


11 posted on 01/23/2012 7:06:47 AM PST by TADSLOS (Gingrich-Palin FTW!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Along with RomneyCare being the model for ObamaCare, Mitt's understanding of Islam proves he is just the GOP version of the current occupant of the oval office . . .an Obama 2.0 with some business experience. Blech.

Voter discontent with Romney will escalate if Romney pulls that crap. In addition, Romney has a history voters won't and shouldn't forget or forgive. video clip of Romney's glowing view of Hezbollah Quote:

..."Did you notice in Lebanon, what Hezbollah did? Lebanon became a democracy some time ago and while their government was getting underway, Hezbollah went into southern Lebanon and provided health clinics to some of the people there, and schools. And they built their support there by having done so. That kind of diplomacy is something that would help America become stronger around the world and help people understand that our interest is an interest towards modernity and goodness and freedom for all people in the world. And so, I want to see America carry out that kind of health diplomacy..."
or Mitt Romney: Jihadism is "not Islam"
"In those early days after 9/11, President Bush also made it part of his job to serve as the nation’s head cheerleader for Islam as “the religion of peace.” Confusingly, this immediately put “jihad” in a box as something superfluous to Islam. This is now the conventional wisdom in America, from Left to Right: jihad has nothing to do with Islam. Or: “Jihadism is not Islam,” as former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney obediently declared last month. "
These unforgivably misguided views are exaserbated by Romney's alliance with Islamopandering Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie:
12 posted on 01/23/2012 7:08:44 AM PST by wtd
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
So what's that place online that places bets on stuff like this had had Romney at 70% after he won IA (LOL) and NH?

Someone is losing their shirt and some are making a killing.

Is Myth tanking now over there? Because if he loses Florida...and if Santorum drops out...which I think he will...It's OVER.

13 posted on 01/23/2012 7:25:22 AM PST by NELSON111
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To: w1andsodidwe
And the great Sarah Palin and Jim Robinson have endorsed Newt

She was waffling on Fox yesterday...claims she didn't endorse him...just wanted to keep the process going. This is why I don't like Palin as a candidate...she likes to tease her supporters.

14 posted on 01/23/2012 7:29:40 AM PST by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nevermind...just found it...and he’s tanking big time.


15 posted on 01/23/2012 7:30:37 AM PST by NELSON111
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Sarah actually endorsed Newt about 5 days ago. (Like it or not.)

I saw her on Fox after SC was called for Gingrich on Saturday night. She was asked if she was going to endorse anyone. She hasn't yet, though she made mention of Todd's endorsement of Gingrich several weeks ago.

16 posted on 01/23/2012 7:37:25 AM PST by kevao
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To: NELSON111
-- So what's that place online that places bets on stuff like this had had Romney at 70% after he won IA (LOL) and NH? --

Intrade

It still has Romney taking the nomination. Contracts that pay a dollar cost 62 cents.

But Mitt is taking a beating on the chances of winning the FL primary, where you can now win a dollar on a 44 cent bet.

17 posted on 01/23/2012 7:44:02 AM PST by Cboldt
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To: w1andsodidwe
And the great Sarah Palin and Jim Robinson have endorsed Newt.

You forgot to mention Chuck Norris. Big Mistake. :)

18 posted on 01/23/2012 7:58:06 AM PST by sportutegrl
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To: sportutegrl

Sorry, you are correct. I apologize my my serious omission.


19 posted on 01/23/2012 8:37:44 AM PST by w1andsodidwe (Barrak has now won the contest. He is even worse than Jimmah.)
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To: MEGoody

Well she told Hannity that if she lived in SC she would vote for Newt. Not exactly an endorsement but close to it. My guess is that she will hold her official endorsement until the end, because she will support whoever the candidate is in the end.


20 posted on 01/23/2012 8:40:34 AM PST by w1andsodidwe (Barrak has now won the contest. He is even worse than Jimmah.)
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