Why the Obama-Romney Race May Not Be the Dead Heat Polls Describe

US News and World Report ^ | September 4, 2012 | Clark S. Judge

[2ndDivisionVet]

Comments?

[TigerClaws]

Obama can’t answer the 4 year are you better off question.

Polls have over samples Democrats. Romney is up a couple points. Still up for grabs but looking good.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

I, personally think, that the internal polls are DIRE! If the platform at the DNC is any indication.......he’s TOAST.

[scooby321]

The Polls are using the 2008 results as the sample.

He is only 50% of women

Getting killed by independents

How can it even be close

[BereanBrain]

I go on record here:

Obama wins no more than 10-15 states, total.
He won’t break 200 on the delegate count.

People when harassed by the polsters will report they are voting for Obama, but in the privacy of the voting booth....

Add in the polsters lean democratic heavily, and you see what I mean.

Did you know supposedly Carter was leading Reagan “up to” the last minute?

Liars, they are.

[One Name]

The grist mill of everyday Americans is sour on obama, be they coal miners, steelworkers, truckdrivers, waitresses, etc.

Bible Believers will be out in force.

We all have to go vote, even in the most Conservative enclaves.. Take an old neighbor to the polls to preserve America! Get your kids registered! Fight!

[irishtenor]

The dead ALWAYS vote Democrat. Twice.

[103198]

R&R will win with a good margin due to a number of reasons.

When a voter walks into their polling place and votes, a good campaign will know how he or she will vote within a few percentage points of error. Traditional exiting polling is dying. Real time analysis is where it’s at.

[I see my hands]

If the question is, "If I asked if you're a liar what would you tell me?" An honest person would answer, "I'd say I'm not" and a liar would say,"I'd say I am."

[FlingWingFlyer]

The way the commie ‘RATS are trashing the hell out of America and Americans (according to the headlines on Google and Yahoo) in Charlotte, I’d say THEIR polls must be really, really bad. They’ve all gone over the edge.

[driftless2]

If I had to bet right now, I’d bet on Romney. But not by a lot. I’d say a lot of Obama voters have had their eyes opened. They don’t have to prove they’re not racists, and besides Obama’s awful record makes it easier to vote for Romney. The choice of Ryan has helped as well. Romney by one-two million votes.

[mazda77]

It is nothing more than database query constraints that produce a desired result for whomever is paying for the poll. It is that simple. Polls are used today to do several things;

1. Keep the base energized and in such keeps the money spigots wide open.
2. Have the documented ability to shape public opinion.
3. Keeps pollsters gamefully employed to sell their database management skills to the highest bidder.

I could go on but when it is ready, I am developing my own random polling system in which I will show how out of a sample of 3000 individuals polled, the published result will be made whatever the criteria for the query formula variables dictate.

Remember this, no pollster works for nothing and somebody will need to pay for it, or he will not be in business for very long. Already we are starting to see the sample criteria change and the results are changing as well.

[Haiku Guy]

2012 or 2016?

If Zero somehow wins in November, there is no way on God’s Green Earth he will be followed by a Democrat.

[jocon307]

First of all, I think exit polling is notoriously unreliable. I just don’t think you can get an accurate sampling by approaching people on the street. You can sit at a phone and call people all over the country, state, county, etc. Nobody would spend the money needed to duplicate that wide sampling in person. So, forget exit polls.

I’d guess that the maxim “undecideds break for the challenger” is true more often than not.

I never really buy the “people lie to pollsters” concept. I’m not saying it’s not true, but I question how big a phenomenon it is. For example, the article says Walker won by more than predicted, but was his margin of victory outside of the margin of error? I doubt it. Without checking I think he won the recall by about 6%. Most polls have a margin of error of at least 3%. So, if he was predicted to win by 3 and he wins by 6, that’s just the MOE. In fact, I think he could have won by 9 and still been within the margin of error, because I think it means they could be off by 3% each way, not in total. (I could be wrong about that, but what I mean is if they say a race is 50/50 it could really be 47/53 with a 3% MOE.)

Romney/Ryan need to do whatever is required to defeat Obama and we need to do whatever is required to help them.

Forget all the ideology, this economy is a mess and so is the rest of the world’s. I don’t think Obama has a single idea that will make it any better. 5 years of this cr*p is enough - it’s time to give another person a chance.

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

I wish I could get my hands on Obama’s/Romney’s internal polls. Those are the ones done with 100% focus on predicting the actual outcome.

[jocon307]

“They don’t have to prove they’re not racists...”

Yes, “vote for me to prove your not a racist” is a card that can only be played once.

Let’s call it the Dinkins card.

[DemforBush]

Could be. I still think this will be a nailbiter of an election, but I’d be happy to see a big Romney victory come November. Not because I love Mitt (I don’t), but because a definitive voter rejection of Obamanomics and his policies will give Romney/Ryan a mandate to act.

[PGR88]

Maybe people are so overcome and fed-up with 24 hour news and politics they just ignore pollsters, lie to them, or only the freaks respond to pollsters (?)

[Wingy]

For election after election the pollsters have ignored me. My number is not unlisted and I vote in every election.

That was in the past. This election cycle it seems that the pollsters have found my number. Maybe it comes from the fact that my state is suddenly 'in play'. Or maybe it's simply the luck of the draw, but this cycle I have gotten more calls from pollsters then ever before. Maybe one call every ten days or so. Different organizations, different questions and different styles of asking those questions. The only thing that remains the same are my answers. All lies. I never tell the truth to a pollster. It keeps 'em scratching their heads after the election, and most of 'em need to scratch their heads.

My two cents.

[meadsjn]

The Polls are using the 2008 results as the sample.
He is only 50% of women
Getting killed by independents
How can it even be close

I agree. Obama had Independents by 8 points in 2008, and recent polls have him losing Independents by 10 points. Rasmussen polling this past weekend showed voters self-identified as Republican over Democrats by 4 or 5 points, while most polling samples still favor the Democrats by 10 or 15 points.

HillBuzz reports the Obamas are homeshopping in Hawaii for a 2013 move.

I see a blowout coming -- 59% to 39% -- not quite a record, but devastating enough to dismantle the Dem machine up and down the tickets.

2008		Group	Obama	McCain
All Voters		Pct.	53%	45%
PARTY	Democrat	39	89	10
Republican		32	9	93
Independent		29	52	44