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Why the Obama-Romney Race May Not Be the Dead Heat Polls Describe
US News and World Report ^ | September 4, 2012 | Clark S. Judge

Posted on 09/04/2012 8:34:22 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

As the Republican convention closed on Thursday night, a new poll pointed to the potential for a major surprise when Americans go to the voting booths in November.

Pollsters will tell you that they cannot always count on voters to level with them about which candidates they favor. For example, Gov. Scott Walker's victory in the Wisconsin recall election several months ago was predicted by the polls, but his margin was not. It was a larger margin than the surveys had forecast. Similarly in 2004, Sen. John Kerry went to bed on election night believing he would be the next president. He woke to a surprise, as did Democrats in 1994 and, to a lesser degree, in 1980. Note, in all these elections it was the Democratic who got the unwelcome surprise.

There are any number of hypotheses as to why. For example, on the 2004 election, one of the most knowledgeable men on political statistics in the United States, Michael Barone, has noted that when the media consortium that sponsored the exit polling delved in depth as to why their results were so far off the actual results, they found a remarkable coincidence. In many of the precincts where their samples diverged most markedly from the actual balloting, the interviewers—those who approached voters and asked for whom they had cast their ballots—were attractive, female graduate students. These exemplars of a heavily Democratic cohort may have telegraphed their personal preferences to respondents (particularly male respondents), who had fed them back the answer they so clearly wanted to hear. Makes you wonder whom the exit pollsters will hire for this year interviewing.

A less, shall we say, "exotic" explanation for the GOP polls-to-voting gap is that in big years when a lot of non-Republicans have planned to cast their ballots for the Republican ticket, a sizeable number of union members haven't wanted to take the chance of telling anyone that they planned to buck their leadership. Another explanation is that the distrust many conservatives harbor toward the mainstream media spills over to pollsters. They become less candid when elections are most fiercely contested.

In any event, whatever the cause of the gap, pollsters have asked, is there a question that gets around the candor deficits? And some believe they have an answer. People may not tell you their candidate preference directly. But in close races where there is no credible consensus about the likely outcome, they typically believe that their candidate will win. In other words, ask them which side is likely to prevail in the next election and their answer will tell you their real opinion.

Which brings us to this year. A quick glance at the presidential poll summary at RealClearPolitics.com shows an amazing confluence of the eight national polls the Web site tracks. As of this weekend, all but two find a 1-point difference between the president and Mitt Romney. The remaining two have a two-point spread. In other words, everyone is finding the national vote tied, that is, falling within the margin of statistical noise that goes hand-in-hand with all survey research.

This is new. Only a month ago, the spread between the most pro-Obama and the most pro-Romney poll on the RealClearPolitics list was 11 points. Both polls advertised a 3-point margin of error. Someone was wrong. Since then all the opinion samples have clustered around what the most pro-Romney polls of a month or so ago were reporting: a neck-and-neck race. But given the traditional GOP gap, is a dead heat the real story?

Maybe not. In a poll released on Friday, Rasmussen Reports found that "60 percent of likely U.S. voters believe the next president will be a Republican." Only a quarter thought it would be a Democrat.

Eighty-nine percent of Republicans said the president after Obama would be from their camp, and 55 percent of independents agreed. Surprisingly 38 percent of Democrats had the same view (versus 47 percent who said it would be a Democrat). The telephone survey was taken during the last two nights of the GOP convention and got answers from 1,000 voters, meaning it was a typical sample.

The Rasmussen team was quick to point out that they did not specify whether the "next president" would be elected in 2012 or 2016. But still, with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado having moved from at least leaning Democrat to "in play" in recent assessments, something may be going on below the surface.

Here is one certainty: The Romney and Ryan presentations in Tampa put on display a pair of principled, compassionate, capable men, prepared to lead in a direction consistent with America's deepest values. Maybe, quietly, a much larger slice of the American people agreed than we have suspected.

November could be interesting.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: obama; polls; romney; ryan
Comments?
1 posted on 09/04/2012 8:34:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama can’t answer the 4 year are you better off question.

Polls have over samples Democrats. Romney is up a couple points. Still up for grabs but looking good.


2 posted on 09/04/2012 8:37:27 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I, personally think, that the internal polls are DIRE! If the platform at the DNC is any indication.......he’s TOAST.


3 posted on 09/04/2012 8:39:41 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear (Bocephus hits a home run! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt_vjPqAVzI)
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To: TigerClaws
The Polls are using the 2008 results as the sample.

He is only 50% of women

Getting killed by independents

How can it even be close

4 posted on 09/04/2012 8:41:22 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I go on record here:

Obama wins no more than 10-15 states, total.
He won’t break 200 on the delegate count.

People when harassed by the polsters will report they are voting for Obama, but in the privacy of the voting booth....

Add in the polsters lean democratic heavily, and you see what I mean.

Did you know supposedly Carter was leading Reagan “up to” the last minute?

Liars, they are.


5 posted on 09/04/2012 8:43:23 PM PDT by BereanBrain
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The grist mill of everyday Americans is sour on obama, be they coal miners, steelworkers, truckdrivers, waitresses, etc.

Bible Believers will be out in force.

We all have to go vote, even in the most Conservative enclaves.. Take an old neighbor to the polls to preserve America! Get your kids registered! Fight!


6 posted on 09/04/2012 8:43:49 PM PDT by One Name
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To: scooby321

The dead ALWAYS vote Democrat. Twice.


7 posted on 09/04/2012 8:44:51 PM PDT by irishtenor (Everything in moderation, however, too much whiskey is just enough... Mark Twain)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

R&R will win with a good margin due to a number of reasons.

When a voter walks into their polling place and votes, a good campaign will know how he or she will vote within a few percentage points of error. Traditional exiting polling is dying. Real time analysis is where it’s at.


8 posted on 09/04/2012 8:46:15 PM PDT by 103198
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If the question is, "If I asked if you're a liar what would you tell me?" An honest person would answer, "I'd say I'm not" and a liar would say,"I'd say I am."

9 posted on 09/04/2012 8:50:16 PM PDT by I see my hands (It's time to.. KICK OUT THE JAMS, MOTHER FREEPERS!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The way the commie ‘RATS are trashing the hell out of America and Americans (according to the headlines on Google and Yahoo) in Charlotte, I’d say THEIR polls must be really, really bad. They’ve all gone over the edge.


10 posted on 09/04/2012 8:55:37 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Had enough of the freaks running the show yet?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If I had to bet right now, I’d bet on Romney. But not by a lot. I’d say a lot of Obama voters have had their eyes opened. They don’t have to prove they’re not racists, and besides Obama’s awful record makes it easier to vote for Romney. The choice of Ryan has helped as well. Romney by one-two million votes.


11 posted on 09/04/2012 8:58:13 PM PDT by driftless2
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To: BereanBrain; All

It is nothing more than database query constraints that produce a desired result for whomever is paying for the poll. It is that simple. Polls are used today to do several things;

1. Keep the base energized and in such keeps the money spigots wide open.
2. Have the documented ability to shape public opinion.
3. Keeps pollsters gamefully employed to sell their database management skills to the highest bidder.

I could go on but when it is ready, I am developing my own random polling system in which I will show how out of a sample of 3000 individuals polled, the published result will be made whatever the criteria for the query formula variables dictate.

Remember this, no pollster works for nothing and somebody will need to pay for it, or he will not be in business for very long. Already we are starting to see the sample criteria change and the results are changing as well.


12 posted on 09/04/2012 9:02:20 PM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

2012 or 2016?

If Zero somehow wins in November, there is no way on God’s Green Earth he will be followed by a Democrat.


13 posted on 09/04/2012 9:06:55 PM PDT by Haiku Guy ("The problem with Internet Quotes is that you never know if they are real" -- Abraham Lincoln)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

First of all, I think exit polling is notoriously unreliable. I just don’t think you can get an accurate sampling by approaching people on the street. You can sit at a phone and call people all over the country, state, county, etc. Nobody would spend the money needed to duplicate that wide sampling in person. So, forget exit polls.

I’d guess that the maxim “undecideds break for the challenger” is true more often than not.

I never really buy the “people lie to pollsters” concept. I’m not saying it’s not true, but I question how big a phenomenon it is. For example, the article says Walker won by more than predicted, but was his margin of victory outside of the margin of error? I doubt it. Without checking I think he won the recall by about 6%. Most polls have a margin of error of at least 3%. So, if he was predicted to win by 3 and he wins by 6, that’s just the MOE. In fact, I think he could have won by 9 and still been within the margin of error, because I think it means they could be off by 3% each way, not in total. (I could be wrong about that, but what I mean is if they say a race is 50/50 it could really be 47/53 with a 3% MOE.)

Romney/Ryan need to do whatever is required to defeat Obama and we need to do whatever is required to help them.

Forget all the ideology, this economy is a mess and so is the rest of the world’s. I don’t think Obama has a single idea that will make it any better. 5 years of this cr*p is enough - it’s time to give another person a chance.


14 posted on 09/04/2012 9:17:17 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: mazda77

I wish I could get my hands on Obama’s/Romney’s internal polls. Those are the ones done with 100% focus on predicting the actual outcome.


15 posted on 09/04/2012 9:20:46 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better (I AM ANDREW BREITBART)
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To: driftless2

“They don’t have to prove they’re not racists...”

Yes, “vote for me to prove your not a racist” is a card that can only be played once.

Let’s call it the Dinkins card.


16 posted on 09/04/2012 9:23:47 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Could be. I still think this will be a nailbiter of an election, but I’d be happy to see a big Romney victory come November. Not because I love Mitt (I don’t), but because a definitive voter rejection of Obamanomics and his policies will give Romney/Ryan a mandate to act.


17 posted on 09/04/2012 9:31:03 PM PDT by DemforBush
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Maybe people are so overcome and fed-up with 24 hour news and politics they just ignore pollsters, lie to them, or only the freaks respond to pollsters (?)


18 posted on 09/04/2012 9:38:07 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: PGR88
For election after election the pollsters have ignored me. My number is not unlisted and I vote in every election.

That was in the past. This election cycle it seems that the pollsters have found my number. Maybe it comes from the fact that my state is suddenly 'in play'. Or maybe it's simply the luck of the draw, but this cycle I have gotten more calls from pollsters then ever before. Maybe one call every ten days or so. Different organizations, different questions and different styles of asking those questions. The only thing that remains the same are my answers. All lies. I never tell the truth to a pollster. It keeps 'em scratching their heads after the election, and most of 'em need to scratch their heads.

My two cents.

19 posted on 09/04/2012 10:15:33 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: scooby321

The Polls are using the 2008 results as the sample.
He is only 50% of women
Getting killed by independents
How can it even be close

I agree. Obama had Independents by 8 points in 2008, and recent polls have him losing Independents by 10 points. Rasmussen polling this past weekend showed voters self-identified as Republican over Democrats by 4 or 5 points, while most polling samples still favor the Democrats by 10 or 15 points.

HillBuzz reports the Obamas are homeshopping in Hawaii for a 2013 move.

I see a blowout coming -- 59% to 39% -- not quite a record, but devastating enough to dismantle the Dem machine up and down the tickets.

       
2008
Group
Obama
McCain

All Voters

Pct.
53%
45%
PARTY
Democrat
39
89
10
Republican
32
9
93
Independent
29
52
44

20 posted on 09/04/2012 10:33:31 PM PDT by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: BereanBrain

Carter’s internal polling told him the truth. Way before the race was called he said to Jody Powell “We lost, didn’t we.”

To which Powell replied “Yes, Sorry Mr President.”

But what amazes me is what you hear from the speeches....obama has stopped lobbying and gotten rid of the DC insiders, he’s made illegals legal by going to college or joining the military, he’s made it okay for gays to serve openingly and has approved gay marriage. This stuff is either flat out lies or truths nobody agrees with. Yet they still vote for him. Everyone of those delegates should be auditioning for the WALKING DEAD.


21 posted on 09/04/2012 11:15:07 PM PDT by Terry Mross (2016 THE MOVIE....scarier than any zombie movie.)
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To: BereanBrain; All
Obama wins no more than 10-15 states, total.

Are you including VA in that 10-15 States now? Thanks to Virgil Goode, VA is a goner for Romney/Ryan. I think the posts on this thread are a little overly optimistic. I pray you are right however. I get physically ill (no exaggeration) thinking of another 4 years of Obama.
22 posted on 09/04/2012 11:42:35 PM PDT by oliviasdad
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

NOWHERE in the article does it mention the blatant OVERSAMPLING of Dims that is going on in most polls (Rasmussen and Gallup seem to be avoiding this but they are still only sampling registered voters as opposed to likely voters).

Most prominent example of Dim over-sampling: the exit polls that said Scott Walker would win by a razor’s edge over-sampled Dims by around 4 points. Actual result: Walker win 52-48.

I ALWAYS look at the poll internals. ALL polls that give Zero a wide lead ALWAYS over-sample Dims.

And the latest trick? Some polls are now not even giving the breakdown of Dims, Repubs, and Indies. (This was the case in two recent polls that had Zero leading in NV by 2 points and leading in PA by 4 points).

I think support for Romney is FAR MORE than what the public polls are showing.

I think that the Dim operatives know the real story, which is why the campaign is so nasty. However, I don’t think anyone has told Zero what the real numbers are (too afraid of VJ).


23 posted on 09/05/2012 12:31:05 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: meadsjn
Originally posted by: meadsjn

"I see a blowout coming -- 59% to 39% -- not quite a record, but devastating enough to dismantle the Dem machine up and down the tickets."




Fairly optimistic. Even Reagan's second election (1984) never made your 59% popular vote victory hurdle; only Harding (1920), Nixon (1972), Roosevelt (1936), and Johnson (1964) exceeded said mark...

Presidential election results listed by Popular vote (for elections with Popular vote) sorted in decending order:

"Popular" Vote       Winning Percentage  
Victory Margin Year Party Winner Electoral Vote "Popular" Vote  
22.58% 1964 Democrat Johnson(36) 90.33% 61.05%  
24.25% 1936 Democrat Roosevelt(32) 98.49% 60.80%  
23.15% 1972 Republican Nixon 96.65% 60.67%  
26.17% 1920 Republican Harding 76.08% 60.32%  
18.21% 1984 Republican Reagan 97.58% 58.77%  
17.41% 1928 Republican Hoover 83.62% 58.21%  
17.76% 1932 Democrat Roosevelt(32) 88.89% 57.41%  
15.40% 1956 Republican Eisenhower 86.06% 57.37%  
18.83% 1904 Republican Roosevelt(26) 70.59% 56.42%  
12.34% 1828 Democrat Jackson 68.20% 55.97%  
11.80% 1872 Republican Grant 78.10% 55.63%  
10.85% 1952 Republican Eisenhower 83.24% 55.18%  
10.06% 1864 Republican Lincoln 90.60% 55.02%  
9.96% 1940 Democrat Roosevelt(32) 84.56% 54.74%  
16.81% 1832 Democrat Jackson 76.00% 54.23%  
25.22% 1924 Republican Coolidge 71.94% 54.04%  
7.50% 1944 Democrat Roosevelt(32) 81.36% 53.39%  
7.72% 1988 Republican Bush(41) 79.18% 53.37%  
6.07% 1840 Whig Harrison(9) 79.60% 52.88%  
7.27% 2008 Democrat Obama 67.80% 52.87%  
5.32% 1868 Republican Grant 72.80% 52.66%  
6.12% 1900 Republican McKinley 65.32% 51.64%  
8.53% 1908 Republican Taft 66.46% 51.57%  
4.33% 1896 Republican McKinley 60.63% 51.03%  
6.97% 1852 Democrat Pierce 85.80% 50.84%  
14.20% 1836 Democrat Van Buren 57.80% 50.83%  
9.74% 1980 Republican Reagan 90.89% 50.75%  
2.46% 2004 Republican Bush(43) 53.20% 50.73%  
2.06% 1976 Democrat Carter 55.20% 50.08%  
0.17% 1960 Democrat Kennedy 56.42% 49.72%  
4.48% 1948 Democrat Truman 57.06% 49.55%  
1.46% 1844 Democrat Polk 61.80% 49.54%  
3.12% 1916 Democrat Wilson 52.17% 49.24%  
8.51% 1996 Democrat Clinton 70.45% 49.23%  
0.25% 1884 Democrat Cleveland(22) 54.60% 48.50%  
0.02% 1880 Republican Garfield 58.00% 48.27%  
-3.02% 1876 Republican Hayes 50.10% 47.95%  
-0.51% 2000 Republican Bush(43) 50.37% 47.87%  
-0.80% 1888 Republican Harrison(23) 58.10% 47.82%  
4.79% 1848 Whig Taylor 56.20% 47.28%  
3.01% 1892 Democrat Cleveland(24) 62.39% 46.02%  
12.17% 1856 Democrat Buchanan 58.80% 45.28%  
0.70% 1968 Republican Nixon 55.95% 43.42%  
5.56% 1992 Democrat Clinton 68.77% 43.01%  
14.44% 1912 Democrat Wilson 81.92% 41.84%  
21.72% 1860 Republican Lincoln 59.40% 39.82%  
-10.43% 1824 Dem-Reps Adams(6) 32.20% 30.92%  



dvwjr td width=99123

24 posted on 09/05/2012 12:53:22 AM PDT by dvwjr
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To: Private_Sector_Does_It_Better

I am embarking on this just to expose both sides. It is my contention that the GOPe uses them more to keep up and comers out by squashing them in the arena of public debate essentially calling them unelectable and shaping the public opinion accordingly.

It was Ted Cruz’s victory over the establishment that got me to thinking about how the GOE uses them to defeat dissent.


25 posted on 09/05/2012 2:29:20 AM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
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To: mazda77
Keeps pollsters gamefully employed

"Keeps pollsters gainfully employed"

26 posted on 09/05/2012 3:21:53 AM PDT by Old_Grouch (65 and AARP-free. Monthly FR contributor.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm predicting that 0bama will loose by the largest margin ever by an incumbent president.
Laugh if you want but I stand by it.
The MSM know this. That's why they are pulling out all the stops so as not to make it look so bad.
27 posted on 09/05/2012 3:53:53 AM PDT by gdzla
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To: gdzla
....will lose by the largest margin ever.....”

Right. This is the same America that neutered Bill Clinton for far less of a Crap Sandwich than Obama has served up.

28 posted on 09/05/2012 4:10:18 AM PDT by urbanpovertylawcenter (where the law and poverty collide in an urban setting and sparks fly)
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To: Wingy
That was in the past. This election cycle it seems that the pollsters have found my number. Maybe it comes from the fact that my state is suddenly 'in play'. Or maybe it's simply the luck of the draw, but this cycle I have gotten more calls from pollsters then ever before. Maybe one call every ten days or so. Different organizations, different questions and different styles of asking those questions. The only thing that remains the same are my answers. All lies. I never tell the truth to a pollster.

Me too, Wingy.

Sometimes I'm a 24 year old, black, lesbian that is going to vote for Romney, sometimes I'm a Latino that is going to vote for obama, but they never get a real answer from me.

29 posted on 09/05/2012 4:12:38 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: RushIsMyTeddyBear; FlingWingFlyer

If the Dem platform- government sponsored abortion, gay marriage, absence of God- is any indication, Obama realizes he’s in big trouble. He understands his only hope is to motivate his base to vote in numbers like they did for 2008 and just pray he can slime R/R enough to convince a good chunk of independents to stick with him. If he starts to play the race card, that’s a sure sign his numbers have tanked.


30 posted on 09/05/2012 4:38:23 AM PDT by Krankor (Green-eyed lady, lovely lady Strolling slowly towards the sun)
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To: gdzla

I tend to agree. What do you think their commentary will be the morning after Obama’s Debacle?


31 posted on 09/05/2012 4:41:26 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s my uneducated take on things...
You can only look at the most recent election any where to try to get a reasonable idea of how things may go, especially if conditions economically, etc. haven’t changed or have gotten worse...here goes:
Wisconsin: recall of Walker a blow out
2010 elections: referendum on Obummer
NMex: conservatishy Latina gov
VA: very conservative state govt
NC: big no on gay marriage
FL: Rubio
I wouldn’t rely on the immediate past results as much if the economy wasn’t so bad, the tax axe wasn’t hanging over our heads, Obummer care wasn’t so unpopular, gay marriage wasn’t so unpopular, etc.
Just my read on things...hope I’m right.


32 posted on 09/05/2012 6:38:40 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s my uneducated take on things...
You can only look at the most recent election any where to try to get a reasonable idea of how things may go, especially if conditions economically, etc. haven’t changed or have gotten worse...here goes:
Wisconsin: recall of Walker a blow out
2010 elections: referendum on Obummer
NMex: conservatishy Latina gov
VA: very conservative state govt
NC: big no on gay marriage
FL: Rubio
I wouldn’t rely on the immediate past results as much if the economy wasn’t so bad, the tax axe wasn’t hanging over our heads, Obummer care wasn’t so unpopular, gay marriage wasn’t so unpopular, etc.
Just my read on things...hope I’m right.


33 posted on 09/05/2012 6:39:01 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Isn’t there a new CNN poll showing Obama up by 7 (52-45)?

Would seem to show thatthe GOP convention backfired, which plays right into the Dem narrative that it was a disaster.

I think the important thing is to look at what the campaigns are actually doing, because they’ll have the best and most accurate polls. Particularly striking is the convention of Black ministers on how to motivate their congregations to get out and vote for Obama. That wouldn’t be happening if there weren’t numbers showing soft support.


34 posted on 09/05/2012 6:49:34 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: dvwjr
Fairly optimistic.

You're probably right. Our demographics probably won't allow it, even if conditions justify it.

From the table you posted, Hoover came in with 58.21%, and went out with FDR taking 57.41%. It could happen. Right or wrong, the incumbent got the blame.

35 posted on 09/05/2012 6:57:25 AM PDT by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: Admin Moderator
This is, IMHO, a really important article that has been overlooked. More FReepers need to read it.Could you place it in whichever sidebar you deem appropriate? Thanks..

BTW..any chance that "Eastern Daylight Time" on the timestamps can appear as E.D.T?

36 posted on 09/05/2012 8:44:31 AM PDT by ken5050 ("One useless man is a shame, two are a law firm, three are a Congress".....John Adams)
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To: Haiku Guy

“If Zero somehow wins in November, there is no way on God’s Green Earth he will be followed by a Democrat.”

He won’t be followed by anyone for decades. There will be no more elections.


37 posted on 09/05/2012 9:32:21 AM PDT by Wordkraft (Remember who the Collaborators are.)
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To: John W
What do you think their commentary will be the morning after Obama’s Debacle?

Obama unexpectedly defeated at polls

38 posted on 09/05/2012 10:18:22 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: tanknetter
Isn’t there a new CNN poll showing Obama up by 7 (52-45)?

Nope, latest CNN polls shows it a dead heat at 48-48

39 posted on 09/05/2012 10:20:58 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

Thanks! But now I’m wondering where on CNN.com the story with that 52-45 poll was. I know I saw it this morning, can’t find it now.


40 posted on 09/05/2012 11:19:40 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: tanknetter

You might of stumbled over an old story. You got to be careful and find a date. Once this stuff gets on the net it is out there for a long time.


41 posted on 09/05/2012 11:22:31 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

ok, found the story via google. The poll and story were from early August. Not sure why they were linked to from the CNN front page this morning ...


42 posted on 09/05/2012 11:24:11 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: BereanBrain

NY, CA, IL, DC, MD for sure...the rest are not so sure for Obummer.


43 posted on 09/05/2012 11:26:52 AM PDT by Pharmboy (Democrats lie because they must.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s my reasoning for why the polls are way off. Romney draws bigger crowds than Obama and also raises more funds than Bozo. If they were as close as the polls suggest then their crowds and fund raising would also be close. They are not, therefore Romney is ahead by a good bit and will win the election.


44 posted on 09/05/2012 12:02:13 PM PDT by calex59
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