Biz group FL poll: Romney 50%-Obama 47%

The Miami Herald's Naked Politics ^ | September 13, 2012 | Marc Caputo

[2ndDivisionVet]

The Associated Industries of Florida business group has released snippets of a survey taken by Mclaughlin & Associates, a firm that typically polls for Republicans, which finds Mitt Romney clinging to an inside-the-error-margin lead over President Obama, 50-47%, among likely voters.

The AIF numbers suggest a significant bounce compared to pre-convention surveys from Quinnipiac University and CNN/Time/ORC (Although Public Policy Polling, which typically surveys for Democrats, found Obama up by just 1 before and after the conventions). And the Florida figures show a more comfortable lead for Romney now than he faces nationwide, where most surveys indicate Obama got a post-convention bounce while Romney didn't. Update: Missed this Survey USA Poll released yesterday showing Obama with a 4-point lead (48-44) in Florida.

But there's still a good chance that Florida could be breaking the opposite direction from the nation. The state's jobless and home-foreclosure rates are higher than the nation's. The poll says 55 percent to 40 percent of likely voters say they're not better off than four years ago. There's also a good chance that this one poll will be a pro-Romney outlier as other surveys are released.

The internals of the AIF poll have good and bad news for Obama...

[Cherokeesquaw]

Polls are an emotional roller coaster. One day your candidate is up the next day he or she is down. I’ve pretty much decided that once the debates begin, the polls will start to reflect a more accurate assessment of the election. I think the debates will be more of a determining factor as to who people vote for than the conventions, ad buys, etc. I think the debates are really the determining factor of elections. Or, at least, they always have been in the past.