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Poll Shows Ernst Claiming Lead in U.S. Senate Primary (The Sarah Palin factor!)
The Iowa Republican ^ | April 10, 2014 | Kevin Hall

Posted on 04/10/2014 1:25:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Joni Ernst has captured the momentum in Iowa’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, according to a Suffolk University poll released Wednesday. The poll shows Ernst edging Mark Jacobs 25-23 among primary voters.

This is the first poll Suffolk University has conducted on the race so it is difficult to determine if their survey is an outlier or an actual sign of movement in the crowded GOP field. Either way, the Ernst campaign was quick to trumpet the good news, as did Sarah Palin. The former Alaska governor endorsed Ernst two weeks ago.

“A new poll out today shows momentum for my campaign is continuing to pick up steam,” Ernst wrote on social media. “As a result of your support, we are now leading the Republican primary field for U.S. Senate!”

Other recent polls have shown Ernst trailing Mark Jacobs by seven to 11 points. The Iowa state senator’s sudden vault to the front shows that Ernst’s risky hog castration ad “Squeal” was a smart move. Although the campaign made just a small ad buy in Des Moines, the video went viral on YouTube and picked up national coverage on cable news networks and late night comedy shows.

Mark Jacobs has trounced the field in fundraising, with some help from his personal bank account, and has been running TV and radio ads for months. Those bolstered his name I.D. and helped him lead the field early on. However, the Jacobs campaign needs to supplement its air cover with a strong grassroots ground game.

The Jacobs campaign has spent an estimated $900,000 on TV and radio ads, compared to just $9,000 for Ernst, so there’s no question Ernst is getting more use out of her advertising dollars so far.

However, with less than two months until the June 3 primary, no candidate in the race has come near the required 35 percent threshold necessary to avoid sending the nomination to a convention battle.

Additionally, in a head-to-head matchup, the Suffolk poll shows Mark Jacobs faring a little better against Democrat nominee Bruce Braley than Ernst does. Braley leads all Republican candidates, besting Jacobs 37-31 and Ernst 38-30.

Congressman Braley’s favorability rating is only 34 percent, compared to 27 percent unfavorable. 17 percent of those polled had never heard of the four-term congressman.

Since this is the first Suffolk poll on Iowa, it is difficult to determine if Braley’s comments denigrating Senator Grassley and Iowa farmers had a negative effect on his poll numbers.

The Suffolk poll was especially bad news for the Matt Whitaker campaign. It shows the former U.S. attorney in fourth place among the five candidates, at just 4%. Whitaker had been a solid third place in other polls. Former talk radio host Sam Clovis now sits in third place, at 7%, according to the Suffolk poll. A whopping 40% of Republican primary voters remain undecided, which means this race is very fluid.

Clovis is dealing with some trouble of his own due to comments made to a Carroll newspaper reporter. Clovis indicated that criminalizing women her undergo abortions might be “a bridge too far”.

Some pro-lifers backing Clovis expressed outrage at the comments and the campaign spent Wednesday trying to clean up the mess. Liberals are attacking Clovis for his claim in the same interview that it would be more difficult to impeach President Obama due to his race.

The Suffolk poll shows Governor Branstad with a 10-point lead over Democrat Jack Hatch in the gubernatorial race, 42-32. 49 percent of those polled view Branstad favorably.

Other findings show an overwhelming number of Iowans, 67 percent, support Voter ID. 49 percent believe Obamacare is a bad law for Iowa. The Suffolk University survey polled 800 likely voters between April 3 and April 8.

Not appearing in the poll is Bob Quast, who is running a write-in effort for the Democrat U.S. Senate nomination. Quast’s web ad is trumping even Ernst’s “Squeal” ad for outlandishness, though they both refer to severed testicles. Yes, really.

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)


TOPICS: Iowa; Campaign News; Parties; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: ernst; iowa; palin; polls

1 posted on 04/10/2014 1:25:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Let’s celebrate with an order of fried mountain oyster, in garlic butter! :) She would liven things up in the Senate, that is for sure!


2 posted on 04/10/2014 1:43:58 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Jacobs has been flooding the radio with ads. He should be way out in front but there’s something about him that’s just not ringing right with people in Iowa. Ernst’s ad was a successful gamble and Braley’s pandering to trial lawyers video hurt him badly. The Republican Party in Iowa is in a shambles. If Harkin’s seat goes Red this fall (and that looks less unlikely now than it did three weeks ago) it will be remarkable.


3 posted on 04/10/2014 1:57:38 PM PDT by trad_anglican
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To: BigEdLB

the closer to 13 gained seats the better!


4 posted on 04/10/2014 2:27:14 PM PDT by Cruz_West_Paul2016
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To: trad_anglican

How is the candidate in MN, also endorsed by gov Palin, doing?


5 posted on 04/10/2014 2:32:27 PM PDT by entropy12
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To: entropy12

Love Ernst !
Wish she was in FL !


6 posted on 04/10/2014 2:38:33 PM PDT by bicyclerepair (The zombies here elected alcee hastings. TERM LIMITS ... TERM LIMITS)
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To: Cruz_West_Paul2016

Yes!


7 posted on 04/10/2014 2:39:31 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sarah has finally found her place. some one we can trust whoc an pick winners who are not establishment and not todd akins types.


8 posted on 04/10/2014 3:21:59 PM PDT by amnestynone (Lindsey Graham is a feckless, duplicitous, treacherous, double dealing backstabbing corksucker.)
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To: amnestynone

She can walk and chew gum at the same time, she’s not limited to that.


9 posted on 04/10/2014 3:27:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: trad_anglican

Joni Ernst Takes IA Lead Despite Being Outspent 100-1 On TV
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/04/09/Joni-Ernst-Leading-in-Iowa-Over-Mark-Jacobs


10 posted on 04/10/2014 3:29:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: entropy12

so long as prisoners are not allowed to vote,we should take that seat also.


11 posted on 04/10/2014 3:39:18 PM PDT by Cruz_West_Paul2016
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Does ayone happen to have her offficial site where to send contributions?


12 posted on 04/10/2014 7:25:57 PM PDT by Jane Austen (Boycott the Philadelphia Eagles!)
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To: Jane Austen

https://secure.joniforiowa.com/donations/contribution/


13 posted on 04/10/2014 7:34:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All
Clovis indicated that criminalizing women her undergo abortions might be “a bridge too far”.
Some pro-lifers backing Clovis expressed outrage at the comments and the campaign spent Wednesday trying to clean up the mess. Liberals are attacking Clovis for his claim in the same interview that it would be more difficult to impeach President Obama due to his race.


Holy crap! Another Todd Akin moment. (Oops; my bad. Two Todd Akin moments in one friggin' interview.) It's becoming one a day. Why do so many of our Conservative / Tea Party Candidates run their mouth before engaging their brain. Oh, never mind; that would probably be worse since so many of our guys have sh** for brains.
14 posted on 04/10/2014 8:42:31 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorsed McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

bump!


15 posted on 04/11/2014 1:43:09 PM PDT by apocalypto
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Thanks!


16 posted on 04/11/2014 2:14:29 PM PDT by Jane Austen (Boycott the Philadelphia Eagles!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I know two people who know Joni Ernst personally. One (an Independent) has know her for over a decade. She said Joni is good person, somebody she trusts and will vote for.

The other is a Democrat who has known her for a year or two and said he finds her the most interesting and likable of the candidate, but nevertheless will vote for the Democrat.

Both stated Joni will have an uphill battle, that there is a huge push and significant out of state support for her Democratic opponent.

17 posted on 04/12/2014 12:11:46 PM PDT by apocalypto
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Go Joni Ernst!! Another badly needed reinforcement in the Senate for Ted Cruz has appeared. The GOPe is going bananas spending vast sums to support THEIR candidate Jacobs and NOT getting traction. The GOPe ruling elite remain very much in “be afraid, be very afraid” mode—and I’m liking it.


18 posted on 04/13/2014 3:43:38 PM PDT by House Atreides
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Iowa state senator’s sudden vault to the front shows that Ernst’s risky hog castration ad “Squeal” was a smart move.

What was 'risky' about it? It was clever and creative, which is what advertising is supposed to be.

19 posted on 04/13/2014 3:46:12 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("Compromise" means you've already decided you lost.)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

Everything that conservatives do are “risky, controversial, argumentative, oft-derided” and on-and-on.


20 posted on 04/13/2014 3:51:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You left out ‘racist’...


21 posted on 04/13/2014 3:52:09 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("Compromise" means you've already decided you lost.)
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To: House Atreides

Jacobs is self-financed, and contributions to him have come overwhelmingly from inside Iowa. Ernst has the support of Gov. Branstad’s very GOP-E Lt. Gov. and is endorsed by Tea Partier Mitt Romney.


22 posted on 04/13/2014 3:57:23 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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