Presidential Horse Race 2016: Why a reputable pollster forecasts a Cruz win in Iowa

Richard A. Viguerie's Conservative HQ ^ | January 19, 2016 | Jeffrey A. Rendall

[2ndDivisionVet]

Glancing at the latest Real Clear Politics polling average for Iowa, you see Donald Trump has retaken the lead in The Hawkeye State, 27.8 percent to Ted Cruz's 26.7 percent.

Those results are certain to set off another wave of brash rhetoric and bold predictions from The Donald himself, but before he or his supporters get too excited, the bigger picture needs to be taken into account.

Ted Cruz supportersFor example, pollster Nate Silver's very reputable FiveThirtyEight group now gives Cruz a fairly sizeable chance to beat Trump in a little less than two weeks.

Kristen East of Politico reports, "Ted Cruz ha[s] the greatest chance of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, a new polling-based forecast from FiveThirtyEight shows...

[Kenny]

Using ERICK ERICKSON, nuff said.

[dforest]

Whatever, I guess we will know in 13 days.

[ripnbang]

Uh-huh....

[Parley Baer]

“Using ERICK ERICKSON, nuff said.”

I have to agree nothing unbiased about him. He has been in the Cruz corner for quite sometime.

[Karl Spooner]

I often wondered what are you going to do when Trump wins?

[max americana]

Silver is a flaming libtard but he did get the 2012 elections right. However, he missed on the GOP landslide 2 years ago and was off by a few states.

[tennmountainman]

Erickson?

That fat faced fraud got fired from Red State.

Erickson made his prediction before the Palin effect today.

[Objective Scrutator]

It’s worth noting that 538 has been the big cheerleader of saying Iowa and New Hampshire doesn’t matter. 538 is a reliable source IF you realize that it openly says what the Uniparty wants, and not necessarily what the voters want.

This suggests that the GOP-e plan to let Trump or Cruz win Iowa, then start forging the election results against Trump/Cruz once one of them drops out.

[Albion Wilde]

This is coming from the Richard Viguerie organization. Richard Viguerie is a long-time heavy hitter and fundraiser in conservative circles. My guess -- but I do not know -- is that his deep pockets are backing Cruz. So, this is hardly a "disinterested" opinion.

[BigEdLB]

More TDS. Just like on Fox today, The deranged Meeginn and Brit “Dullard” Hume talking of how ineffective the Palin endorsement will be, and how the negative things toward Cruz like the Iowa governors remarks will have on Cruz. Meeginn is dwelling on planet Wishful Thinking as is Hume

[erod]

[Mollypitcher1]

Wonder how much the establishment is paying them.

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

We’re they able to keep their hands off of each other?

[Mollypitcher1]

So do I.

[mrsmith]

Cruz has a very good chance in Iowa, for what little it’s worth.

[nopardons]

Exactly !

[Diogenesis]

Given how poorly Cruz has done
today, the only thing to reasonably
forecast is that Goldmann Sachs
will give Cruz and his wife
MILLIONS$$$$ for faux-conservative Cruz voting to
allow SECRET ObamaTRADE to vote to then pass.

[demshateGod]

Your a Trumpbot. You have no intellectual integrity.

[JLS]

With Iowa, what matters is who is reported to have won not who ultimately ends up with the most delegates after the precinct, county, congressional district and state conventions. So Iowa is very hard to predict as you are predicting press reports.