I have something for ya, Sac!!! HiYooo!!!
Posted on 01/27/2016 2:36:47 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
He’s dead you know.
Then I won’t answer my door anymore.
Yep.
The door knockers always announce that they are with such and such campaign before they ask who you are supporting. Usually really nice people. I tend to get a little short with the libs though.
Gilmore will shock everybody and win it!...
Yes he will. He not a turtle, he is a sloth.
He died in 2009. You don’t need to answer the door for that anymore.
That would be absolutely horrifying.
“Maybe it will increase, stay the same or go down. You may quote me on that!”
How can I trust you? I’ve noticed half your information is below your average. What’s with that?
I think it's going to do a twist, go side-wise then angle off in another direction. He may or may not win it anyway.
Go one county/one caucus at a time.
For each county, start with those on the voter role who showed up last time and are known to show up this time.
Add those who are donors to the candidate and those who hold the title of chair or some other title in the campaign.
Add the family members of the above.
Add the close personal friends of the above who have no clue about politics but will come to support their friend. Their friend may be a fellow church member, c0-worker or neighbor.
This is the number of highly probable to show up.
What percent of them is for each candidate?
Now look at the less probable.
What reason/motivation do they have to show up? What motivation/reason do they have to not show up? Are they ideological? Are the introvert or extrovert? Do they know where the caucus will be held? Are they registered to vote?
My experience in local races with a Trump type following is that many supporters are not even registered to vote.
How many new voters has each candidate registered in the past 6 months? Most of my GOTV successes have been when I did a massive voter registration drive. We won in 1994 because MoralMajority/ChristianCoalition registered to vote millions who had never previously been registered or voed.
This was done by County. Now how many counties does each candidate get a majority? The plurality? Come in 2d? Come in 3d? Is each candidate equally strong in the farm areas? The college areas? DesMoines? Quad Cities? Or is the support for some skewed so they are 1st in one county and 3d in the others? For the same candidate, some counties will have an effective ground game while other counties will have hot air.
There was a great “Calvin and Hobbs” strip where Calvin is filling out some kind of survey. His answers were like “what kind of gum flavor do you like?” “Garlic.”
At the end of the panel Calvin says “I live messing with data.”
I am always inspired by that strip.
I have something for ya, Sac!!! HiYooo!!!
LOL - that’s funny. And inspiring in a certain way.
high turn out = out of staters bused in
That is what Obama and his commies pals in Chicago did
Well last time I looked, the forecast for Iowa was for freezing temperatures with a major snowstorm due in either Monday afternoon or Monday night. We’ll have to keep an eye on that, because the weather could definitely affect turnout.
Supporters of anyone else but DT may bring in green cheese from the moon and give it to caucus goers if they come and vote for anyone but DT. It’s pure genius I tell ya and only the Monmouth guys have been able to figure it out.
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