Posted on 09/26/2016 8:27:40 AM PDT by LS
It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these, mainly because it’s pretty obvious what has happened: Trump has regained momentum (if, indeed, he really ever lost it at all), aided by Cankles abrupt “fainting” spell on 9/11 and her “deplorables” comment. More important than those, however, I think Trump’s series of policy speeches with a teleprompter, in which he laid out solid, logical, and achievable programs reassured millions of Americans that, in fact, he can and should be taken seriously. These speeches nuked any notions that he “didn’t have specifics,” but also (in tried-and-true political fashion) spoke to “interest groups” who, after all, are a part of the political process.
This was seen in his endorsements by police unions, immigration employees’ unions, and by numerous African-American leaders. Heck, he even got the (somewhat unwanted) endorsement of Calypso Louis Farrakhan, while Cankles was being endorsed by the KKK. The reaction of the drive-bys has been rather interesting, in that they really haven’t addressed the specifics of almost any of these plans. The reason? To do so immediately gives them credibility and establishes Trump as another candidate with policy ideas. As a result, these ideas have gotten out to the public, to some extent, unfiltered—an absolutely astounding development.
Cankles’ heath concerns now, thanks to Mike Cernovich on Twitter, are also without doubt a subject of discussion. Reporters are now celebrating that she can make it down five stairs. But this doesn’t help her. It only reinforces the fact that she’s a sick old hag. Moreover, the very implications that she might be seriously ill at least somewhat require the drive-bys to acknowledge the fact. At least as damaging to her have been the e-mail revelations. Again, though the drive-bys don’t cover these as they should, the drip-drip-drip has taken a serious toll.
In terms of polls, we’ve seen a seismic shift (some of this artificial as after the Dem convention we know that Reuters, Suffolk, and CNN all openly announced new or oddball polling methods, such as asking for the “youngest voter in the home?” Really?) Also, many of the pollsters started to move to “likely” voter samples, which of course always favors the Republican. Trump leads in USC, UPI, PPD, and the latest CNN national polls. More important, and more decisively, Trump now leads in the preponderance of polls/latest polls from AZ, CO, GA, FL, NC, IA, OH, ME-2, NV, meaning that as of today he is approximately at 270-272. I have been very confident of FL for weeks, and now am quite confident of OH, especially with the CNN report that Cankles has basically given up there.
I don’t know what her “firewall” is though. If CO is gone, she’s already behind, and other polls show ME and MI are 3-point races, IL and DC a 6-point race, PA a 1-point race. VA is troubling, but mostly because without voter registration by party in VA, it’s impossible to track the kinds of R/D registration shifts we’ve seen elsewhere. The latest NH poll is a 5-point race. These are all within the margin of error (again, VA excepted since we don’t know). It’s quite possible Trump could be looking at about 300 electoral votes right now.
There are also these weird rumors that she has pulled ads from CO, VA, and OH, but is running ads in CA and IL. This of course makes no sense unless she has "internals" (that I'm always skeptical of) that show her facing an astronomical blowout and trying just to "save face" and not be the first Dem since MTV was hot to lose CA.
With 45 days out, however, WI, OR, NM, and possibly even NJ are all in play. I would recommend, if Ted Cruz is indeed committed to helping defeat Cankles, he visit WI and CO and ensure those go in the R column.
Now the debate. The old saying is “it’s not who votes that counts but who counts the votes.” It’s the same with the debates, as we saw in the primaries. Virtually every “analyst” said that Rubio, or Cruz, or Kasich, or someone other than Trump “won” every debate. Indeed, based on debating style, they probably did. But as we know, Trump won the debates in the post-debate polls because of his astounding dominance of social media. His supporters were rigging Drudge (I use that term respectfully) and other sites before the debates were over.
Short of advocating a nuclear war with China, Trump will win this debate the same way.
Trump supporters will flood social media before the traditional telephone polls can come out. By then, it’s over. (This is what the Dems have done for years. Finally, one of our guys figured it out).
Many have said this, but it’s true. Trump only has to not get caught in some petty squabble or get flustered. If he remains presidential, calm, sticks to policy answers, and above all looks acceptable to women, the election is over by tomorrow morning.
Hillary will “win”. The legions of Democrat shills in the so-called “news media” will be sure to say so. No matter what.
Really good analysis, thoughtful and carefully accurate. Thanks for posting!
I don’t understand why all analysis that I have seen or read recently is about what Trump has to do to win.
No one even mentions Hillary Clinton and what she has to do to win.
It’s as if Hillary wins by default even if she fails to show. She doesn’t have to do a thing, and she wins.
My perspective is this.
Trump wins by default regardless of anything that happens or does not happen, because Hillary Clinton is not fit to be president, she isn’t a leader in any respect of the word, and the fact that a major political party in this country nominated this person to run for president is a farce.
Hillary Clinton is natural born loser.
Thanks bro.
thanks
for the commentary
bkmk
FYI
Mr. Trump.
Good work
Trump will win in the eyes of the people. He must stay on topic, and if Hillary has a health issue, coughing fit or zoning out, let the silence go. That will doom her.
If she calls Trump a sexist or racist, he can ask why she lies. Because she Lied about Bengahzi, emails, himself and 1/2 of his supporters.
If he remains presidential, calm, sticks to policy answers, and above all looks acceptable to women, the election is over by tomorrow morning.
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This is what he will do, because he is Trump, he made Trump and he’s the only one that can take Trump down...
Good Article!!! Thank you...
Very well analyzed as usual. Many thanks.
Disagree. You heard it here first. Media will SAY she won (like they said Cruz or Yeb or someone else won the R debates) but the insta-polling will all say Trump won.
Hillary Clinton has a built in advantage in that there are far more democrats than republicans, and most of them robotically vote along party lines.
Add to that the fact that the democrat political strategic model, although evil, is pure genius: Vote for Us and We will Give You Other People’s Money.
That, and other political maxims, such as: “a lie is often easier to explain than the truth, because with a lie, you’re not limited by these pesky things called facts.
There is also the emotional appeal vs the rational appeal.
Unfortunately, the second law of thermodynamics states that it takes far more energy to build or grow than to destroy or deteriorate.
All of this means that in the war between good and evil, evil has the advantage.
I hope the optimism on FR is well founded, but I won’t stop worrying until Trump gives his farewell address 8 years from now.
Go Trump!
Best election ever!!
Trump will do very well tonight parrying the attacks from Shrill or Holt, and going on the offense to laying out his great visions and ambitious plans for the US of A.
Shrillary is hoping to just stay in the race and awake for 90 minutes who will be hopped up on drugs and to preventing her eye balls from freaking out.
They will have her either nearly comatose or so hopped up on coke she’ll look like Corky Romano.
Not only will Trump win it in the eyes of the People, he will also dismantle the MSM’s attempts to give it to Hillary over the next week....
The high and lows of Illiarily made possible by modern pharmacology administered by her non medical staff.
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