Posted on 10/03/2016 8:13:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Is Minnesota now a toss-up state?
That’s the verdict from election-tracker site Real Clear Politics this week, which moved Minnesota out of the “Leans Clinton” category in its analysis of the presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
If Minnesota is a toss-up, though, the campaigns aren’t acting like it.
Trump made campaign stops in neighboring Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday, but he skipped Minnesota.
Clinton also appeared in Iowa on Thursday but skipped Minnesota — though her campaign did dispatch Anne Holton, wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine, to an early voting event Thursday at St. Paul’s World of Beer. And Bernie Sanders, who challenged her in the Democratic primary, will campaign for her in Minnesota later this week.
Minnesota has voted Democratic in 10 straight presidential elections.
Polls indicate Trump is likely to win Iowa, where he has a 5 percentage-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential race surveys. Wisconsin is a state he hopes to make competitive, even though Hillary Clinton has a 5-point Real Clear Politics advantage there.
But that same poll-averaging service shows an even closer race in Minnesota, with Clinton up by just 4.3 points. That figure is based on a Star Tribune poll that had Clinton leading 44-38 percent Sept. 12-14, a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll that had her up 46-39 percent Sept. 16-20 and a Gravis Marketing survey last week that showed Clinton and Trump tied, 43-43.
Why isn’t Clinton doing better in a state Democrats usually win handily? Sasha Issenberg and Steven Yaccino of Bloomberg Politics identify one possible culprit: diehard Sanders supporters who haven’t followed their candidate over to the Clinton camp.
Sanders beat Clinton in Minnesota by more than 20 points in the March 1 primary, and undecided voters here are disproportionately young and white — a demographic Sanders dominated. Money in, money out
U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen had a good news, bad news situation this week with regard to the torrent of outside spending the Republican congressman is facing in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.
The Democratic-leaning House Majority PAC had reserved $600,000 in airtime for the 3rd District — but this week canceled all of that in what a gloating Paulsen campaign called “a huge retreat” for Democrats.
But another Democratic group, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, amped up its 3rd District spending this week with a $367,000 buy against Paulsen.
Paulsen is facing Democrat Terri Bonoff in the November election. His seat is a top Democratic target as they make a long-shot bit to take over the House of Representatives, but polls and fundraising had shown Paulsen in a solid position. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as “Lean Republican.”
Minnesota’s three competitive House races have seen more outside spending than all but one other state. The 8th District battle between Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan and Republican Stewart Mills has received the largest amount.
GOOD LET THEM LIE!! It only makes us MADDER, stronger and determined!
If an historically strong Democrat state such as Minnesota is a battleground, this election could become a landslide for Trump. But are these polls real???
I think the last time Minnesota went Republican, was in the Nixon landslide of ‘72.
If MN goes Trump, IL is the only state in the rust belt left that HIllary has a shot at holding IMHO.
I don’t expect MN to flip... but if it does, its full on nightmare scenario for the dems.
If Minnesota is really in play then the landslide that’s coming is bigger than I imagined.
While there are some small college towns with loopy people like similar towns in Iowa or Wisconsin, but most of the rest of the state is not like that.
This indicates that Hillary is slipping.
If she has to struggle for Minnesota as Nate Silver suggests with her only having a 79.4% of willing the state, she is going to lose nationwide like Mondale in 1984.
If Minnesota is in play, I bet more blue states are, too...
A lot of us have said that you’ll be able to trust the polls more the closer we get to the election, simply because the election will verify them. If we see a steady increase in Trump support in the polls it could be used to infer that the earlier polls were manipulated.
We’re being lied to by the Ministry of propaganda
If Hillary is in trouble in MN, she's in serious trouble.
However, "They" are also saying that Georgia is a tossup. If GA doesn't go Trump, then this election is over before it starts.....Hillary wins in a landslide.
I think that "They" are playing with numbers, trying to keep people interested. Especially since Hillary generates zero excitement, and liberals hate Trump.
“If MN goes Trump, IL is the only state in the rust belt left that HIllary has a shot at holding IMHO.”
If Minnesota is in play the PIAPS is in deep trouble.
A nightmare for the demondogs: Trump takes a bunch East Cost states suppose NY falls to him by surprise.
Liberal West Coast voters get discouraged and don’t vote. Could Trump sneak a Washington, Oregon or, Hawaii?
Come on! Even Reagan couldn’t win. Don’t waste your time.
MN has many liberal Lutherans who are Democrat to the core and big boosters of abortion.
That being said, it may cause something Conservatives have been asking for to be implemented .... Namely, some sort of unified election ending time, or a unified announcement time. Would keep the media from playing fast and loose with the election results, think Florida in 2000, where they announced the state BEFORE the polls in the panhandle closed....
If that happens, it would counter a whole lot of election fraud.
But they still have Georgia as a toss-up, too, which is bizarrre.
I expect NJ to likely fall...
NY only falls if we see a huge break for him and the pile on and dejection happens.. IE its obvious that Trump is winning and winning big, then you’ll get band wagon voters and dejection keeping the other side home.
Trumps down about 20 in NY in most polls I’ve seen, even if you assume polls are off by about 5 points that’s still not a likely win, unless you wind up with a massive break away in the next few weeks... Could it happen? Yes.. will it? I don’t know...
I do expect Trump to take most of the Rust belt, with MN and IL being the exceptions.. I also expect Trump to take states like RI, NH, possibly CT and ME as well... NJ I think is his most likely “big” state to get in the North East... NY just seems at the moment too far out of reach short of major breaks.
Again I don’t know if these MN polls are accurate, but if Hillary can’t hold the only state Mondale got, and has Franken as its Senator... She’s not even going to get 10 states on election day.
I don’t believe MN is in play. A state that has such a solid democratic history will not change its stripes, considering Trump is now slipping backwards in most polls. If all the polls are wrong as some say on this site, then this poll must be wrong and the race probably is not that close in MN.
But you forget one important thing. Minnesota was Mondale’s home state, so the whole Reagan didn’t win in argument is invalid imo.
Minneapolis is Bernie town and they really don’t like Hillary.
It is possible if Millennials stay home
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