Campaign Notebook: Republicans concerned about Gekas re-election in Pennsylvania [PA-17]

nj.com ^ | 9/8/02 | DAVID ESPO

[BlackRazor]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- House Republicans are spending heavily on television advertising for veteran Rep. George Gekas's re-election bid, reflecting concern that the 72-year-old Pennsylvanian is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent at this stage of the campaign.

Gekas faces a challenge from Democratic Rep. Tim Holden, 45, in the Harrisburg area, one of four congressional races where redistricting has pitted current lawmakers against each other for the fall campaign.

[BlackRazor]

Demographics say the GOP should be slightly favored in this race, but the Democrats have made it into a toss-up, on account of Holden's moderate views and the fact he is acknowledged as a much better campaigner than Gekas. Personally, I'd been leaning Dem on this race for awhile, so I suppose it's somewhat encouraging to see that the contest is still a statistical tie (according to internal polls from both parties). This could be one of those bellwether races.

[BlackRazor]

FYI. Do you want me to regularly flag you on stuff like this that I post?

[Norwell]

I thought this was gerrymandered to engineer a democrat catastrophe?

[BlackRazor]

I thought this was gerrymandered to engineer a democrat catastrophe?

That was certainly the thinking at the time! This newly created district contains 60% of Gekas' old constituents, and it went about 57% for Bush in 2000. However, I think the GOP was caught off-guard by how unorganized the Gekas campaign was. He had never been involved in a competitive race in his life, and was paired up against an aggressive, young, moderate Democrat from a swing district who knew how to raise money. That put him into an early hole, and even some in the GOP acknowledged that Holden had the advantage. However, from this article, it sounds like Gekas is no longer at a financial disadvantage, especially considering there is a Bush fund-raiser upcoming. I also find it encouraging that Holden does not have a lead in the polls, considering his fast start here. This race may yet swing back to the GOP, but it's still too close to call, IMO.

[conservative_2001]

The NRCC's ability to see problems here may save this seat. If they're really going to spend $1.5 million here, it's going to be hard to beat a Republican Member of Congress in a Republican district like this one. I'm sure the Democrats will spend heavily too. Gekas needs to get his act together or he could actually lose this for us.

[Torie]

Sure, thanks, although I check the Campaign 2000 section regularly.

[Coop]

The other races where two incumbents were thrown together are in Mississippi, Illinois and Connecticut. Strategists in both parties say polling shows the Pennsylvania race is the most competitive of the four. The others appear to be more favorable for the GOP.

That's encouraging.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

By any chance,do you have any numbers on this race? "Officials in both parties say that polling shows the two men in a statistical tie" doesn't satisfy me. Thanks again.

[Torie]

No, I haven't seen any polls. But Holden will have to hold about 80% of the Bush voters that voted for him last time to win this seat (about 20% of the voters in Holden's old district voted for Holden and Bush), assuming that Gekas runs no better than Bush did in his old part of the district. That is a tall order since Holden did not have serious opposition last time.