Taft leads Hagan, but voters are unhappy [OH Governor]

In the race for Ohio governor, Republican incumbent Bob Taft leads his Democratic opponent, Tim Hagan, by 11 percentage points, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.

The poll was taken after Taft, using his massive fund-raising advantage, began airing television ads statewide.

Taft received 48 percent of the vote of those polled, to Hagan's 37 percent. Despite that advantage, voters appear unhappy about Ohio's tanking economy and the governor's handling of budget problems.

Taft's failure to gain support from a majority of those surveyed also could be a sign that the incumbent is vulnerable, political analysts say.

"Taft is definitely the favorite, but I wouldn't anoint him just yet," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, the Washington, D.C., firm that conducted the poll. "The governor is personally popular, but when you look at some of his numbers on the economy and his handling of the state budget, his ratings are more mixed."

With seven weeks before the Nov. 5 election, Taft's campaign viewed the numbers cautiously.

"We have always said it will be a competitive race because Ohio is very evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans," said campaign spokesman Orest Holubec. "It's a very tough time for any incumbent."

Gerald Austin, a strategist with Hagan's campaign, said he's encouraged. "There's no question that we are behind and no question that we have come a long way," he said.

The Plain Dealer Poll showed that 2 percent of those interviewed support independent candidate John Eastman, while 13 percent are undecided.

In the race for Ohio treasurer, the only other competitive nonjudicial statewide race, incumbent Republican Joe Deters leads former Cuyahoga County Commissioner Mary Boyle, 37 percent to 34 percent.

The poll, taken Sept. 9, 10 and 12, is based on interviews with 805 registered voters who frequently vote. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Political consultant Jim Ruvolo, a former Ohio Democratic Party chairman, said the poll shows Hagan has a chance. "This is a referendum on Taft," he said. "It says if there is an alternative, they will consider it."

But almost a third of those surveyed did not recognize Hagan's name, while just 1 percent of those surveyed said they didn't recognize Taft.

A majority of voters interviewed - 54 percent - said Taft deserves to be re-elected. But nearly one-third said they feel the state is worse off than four years ago; 55 percent said they considered it to be the same.

Taft's support is good considering the "very sour economic climate," said Curt Steiner, a political consultant and former chief of staff and spokesman for former Republican Gov. George Voinovich.

Taft, who has raised $8 million for his campaign, launched a statewide ad campaign in late August to build his image as a governor focused on education and jobs.

Taft's campaign started running its second TV ad yesterday, and the message stayed positive, with Taft promising to "work as hard as I know how to keep Ohio strong."

But Ruvolo said that Taft's future ads will have to criticize Hagan, who has few negatives, according to the poll, if the governor hopes to keep him from gaining popularity.

Holubec said the campaign could eventually air ads attacking Hagan, but, "For now, we'll stay with the broad positive message," he said.

Last week, however, the Taft campaign issued a news release criticizing Hagan for supporting the idea of state-sponsored slot machines at racetracks, though he condemned the idea earlier.

The news release reads: "Straight talk from the heart? Or has our opponent perfected the ability to talk 'straight' out of both sides of his mouth?"

In the meantime, Hagan's campaign, which during Labor Day week released a five-point plan to reduce next year's projected budget deficit, has been drawing interest from political donors and politicians.

Hagan's campaign received a boost Friday, for instance, when former President Clinton hosted a fund-raiser and rally for him in Cleveland, which raised more than $200,000, bringing his total to just over $1 million.

Republican voter Pam Honigford, who participated in The Plain Dealer Poll, said she wants to hear more from both candidates. "I want to know more about what Taft's stances are and what he's been able to accomplish in four years," said Honigford, a teacher from Delphos.

Taft suffers from an image problem, at least as far as John Richard, a Republican from Cincinnati, is concerned. Taft "just hasn't come through and doesn't strike me as a leader," he said.

In the poll, Taft led Hagan in all age groups, including 18-34, which favored Taft 53 percent to 32 percent. Male voters supported Taft, 56 percent to Hagan's 31 percent. Female voters sided with Hagan, 43 percent to 40 percent. And among black voters, who tend to vote Democratic, Hagan led Taft 73 percent to 16 percent.

Ruvolo said he believes the governor's race is closer than the poll shows because slightly more voters from Taft's base in the Cincinnati metro region were interviewed.

"Usually the largest percentage of votes come from the Cleveland area, not Cincinnati, and therefore should reflect that number," he said.

He believes that Deters, the state treasurer, who is also from Cincinnati, is not ahead of Boyle, who has led in other state polls.

In the other statewide nonjudicial races, Republican incumbents had comfortable leads over their Democratic opponents, the poll showed.

Plain Dealer Columbus Bureau Chief Sandy Theis and reporter Stephen Ohlemacher contributed to this story.

This is pretty consistent with a 9/2 Columbus Dispatch poll that gave Taft a 47-39 lead. Normally, I would say the Democrats would have a realistic chance of knocking off Taft this year, but this race is a bit unusual: Taft has a huge financial advantage (8-to-1), and Hagan has pledged not to run any television ads. That combination will make it difficult for him to gain traction against Taft, IMO. Especially now that Taft has started advertising himself.

(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)

When you have a 48 to 37 poll that means that 15 percent of the voters are undecided.

For Taft to win he has to slighly more than 2 out of every 15 undecided voters. For Hagan to win he must get slightly more than 13 out of every 15 undecided voters.

Put it in percentages Hagan has to get 87.3 percent of the undecided voters to vote for him in order to eak out close victory. If Taft gets 13 percent of the undecideds he will be re-elected. There is very little chance anyone could get 87.3 percent of the undecided voters... let alone Hagan. It is very likley this race will end up 58 to 42 for Taft.

Yhe economy is not too good in ohio. And times are worse than they were 4 years ago. But if anyone thinks that will translate into votes for Hagan, they are in for a surprise.

The effort made in Ohio by labor and Blacks for Al Gore in 2000 was the biggest effort in Democratic history. As far as I can tell there is not much Democratic effort this year. Democratic vote turn out in Ohio has little to do with TV and media. It has alot to do with Black Preachers, Teachers and Union Leaders making the effort and raising the money to get out the vote. So far they have not made much effort this year. Hagan has almost no money and there is not a lot of effort being made to elect him.

If Hagan had a chance the Unions would be pouring money into his campaign.

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