[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

No real surprises in any of the polling discussed in this article. It's been obvious that Gekas was in a tough fight for quite awhile. I've had PA-17 as a toss-up from the start. The numbers that really concern me are the IL-19 numbers. Most people had given Shimkus the edge there, but GOP polling only gives him a 4-point lead. With the GOP troubles in Illinois, Blagojevich's coattails in the Governor's race might give the Democrats a good chance at a win there.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[Torie]

Holden must be holding close to 80% of the Bush voters in his old district that voted for him last time against very weak opposition. I have difficultly believing it will that way on election day, but I am reducing Gekeas' chances of winning from 55% to 52.5%. They started out at 65%, one of the biggest percentage changes on my spreadsheet. I moved Shimkus down from 60% to 55%. Shimkus wasn't even on my spreadsheet at the beginning because I don't think much of Phelps, and the district has a clear GOP lean. That is why I still have Beauprez at only a 49% chance of winning although he is apparently leading in the polls. The district has a slight Dem lean, and that influences where I think things will end up. Granted, though, the closer we get to election day though, the more reliable polls have to count, although they are so dependent on projected turnout that it is still dicey.

[mwl1]

On the ballot, though, don't the federal offices come first?

I agree that the lopsided gubernatorial race is going to hurt Shimkus, but thought that the US Senate and US House races come first on the ballot. Please advise, many thanks!

[fieldmarshaldj]

I've been growing more and more concerned about Gekas. First off, he is no youngster (73 next April), and secondly, he has never had a serious contest in years. Holden ain't a leftist kook and currently holds a seat that should've gone to a GOPer named James Jones, III, when it was drawn in '92 (presumably Gekas would've bowed out to the younger Jones with the districts drawn together). Holden is obviously no dummy, realizing that he could win this seat despite a Dem disadvantage. Gekas is going to have to work the hardest he has ever had to in his life to retain this seat, and we have yet to see if he truly has it in him. Regardless, this is a seat we can ill-afford to lose, as if Holden wins it, he'll have it until the next redraw in 2012.

As for Shimkus-Phelps, it's obvious the latter has been closing, but I don't necessarily think the GOP meltdown in IL will be as bad as previously thought (though it may be bad enough). Probably a slim win for Shimkus, 52-48%.