Gekas on the Ropes [PA-17, CT-05, IL-19; MS-03]

At a closed-door meeting Tuesday, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Davis (Va.) told party leaders that Rep. George Gekas is the only GOP incumbent currently trailing in tracking polls, sparking efforts to aid the endangered Pennsylvanian in his race against Rep. Tim Holden (D).

The 72-year-old Gekas, facing his first serious re-election challenge in two decades, is battling Holden, 45, in a race set up by redistricting.

Davis' assessment was backed up by a recently conducted Democratic poll that showed Gekas trailing Holden by 10 points.

The survey, conducted Sept. 19-21 by the Alexandria-based polling firm Cooper & Secrest Associates, found Holden with the support of 48 percent of those polled to Gekas' 38 percent. The polling also indicated that the two incumbents had almost equal name recognition within the redrawn district.

"The national Republicans' palpable panic about Gekas' prospects arises from numbers like these," the polling memo stated.

Republicans contend, however, that the race is much tighter but still not where they would like it to be.

"It's essentially a tied race," said one GOP strategist. "Which it should not be."

The two Members were forced to run against each other after their districts were merged by the GOP-controlled state Legislature. The redrawn 17th contains about 40 percent of Holden's current 6th district and about 60 percent of the current 17th, now represented by Gekas.

The district favors Republicans but Democrats note that Holden, an energetic campaigner, has run and won in a marginal district before. In 2000 he won re-election with 66 percent of the vote, while the district voted 54 percent to elect President Bush.

In the redrawn district, Bush would have taken 57 percent, according to Republican estimates, a drop from the 61 percent Bush won in Gekas' current 17th.

In the three other Member-versus-Member matchups, the NRCC chairman told leaders that Republicans are strongly positioned to win two of the races, according to sources who attended Tuesday's meeting.

In Connecticut, Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) led Rep. Jim Maloney (D) by 9 points in Republican tracking polls. Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Rep. Chip Pickering (R) had a solid 17-point lead over Rep. Ronnie Shows (D).

In the only other incumbent matchup, Republican Rep. John Shimkus (Ill.) had only a slim lead over his opponent, Rep. David Phelps (D-Ill.), according to Republican tracking numbers. Davis said polls showed Shimkus' lead at 4 points.

Democrats recently released a poll that showed Phelps leading Shimkus 40 percent to 38 percent, a lead within the survey's margin of error. Shimkus currently represents about 63 percent of the territory, while Phelps represents 34 percent.

Although the redrawn district favors the GOP, the growing backlash against Republicans in Illinois could have an impact on the race. State Attorney General Jim Ryan (R) trails Rep. Rod Blagojevich (D) badly in polls, while current Gov. George Ryan's (R) approval ratings are abysmal.

Pennsylvania is also holding a gubernatorial election this year, but so far there is no indication either party will get a trickle-down benefit from a tide in the state.

But while Gekas has become a focal point of concern for GOPleaders, they are hardly ready to write the race off. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Steve Schmidt said it would be difficult for any Democrat to overcome the demographics of the central Pennsylvania seat.

"This race is very simple: This is a Republican district," Schmidt said. "At the end of the day this very Republican district will elect Republican George Gekas."

Holden campaign manager Bruce Andrews disagreed with that assertion, insisting "voters in central Pennsylvania are too smart to fall for a blatant partisan appeal."

Schmidt also said Holden's ads "claiming he is a conservative ... will not stand up under scrutiny."

In a further effort to help tout his conservative credentials Holden campaigned this week with Rep. Charlie Stenholm (D-Texas), the ranking member on the Agriculture Committee. Both are members of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition.

The Keystone State appearance by Stenholm, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, was also meant to illustrate Holden's history on the panel.

Holden, a former Schuylkill County sheriff, has served on the Agriculture Committee since entering Congress in 1993. Gekas, elected in 1982, was given a seat just prior to the House adjourning for the August recess this year.

Holden has consistently outpaced Gekas in fundraising, the only Democrat in a Member-Member matchup to achieve that feat.

But Gekas' campaign is being heavily supported by national Republicans, who have sent staff and other resources to Pennsylvania on his behalf. The NRCC has done several mailings for Gekas and will likely spend somewhere between $1.5 million and $2 million on ads alone before the race is over.

Holden's campaign said the Republicans' "Monopoly money" won't be able to make up the difference in the race.

"They can keep spending as much as they want but people know the two candidates, and having an independent centrist rather than a rubber stamp for his party's leadership is what people want," Andrews said.

Poll Ping!

No real surprises in any of the polling discussed in this article. It's been obvious that Gekas was in a tough fight for quite awhile. I've had PA-17 as a toss-up from the start. The numbers that really concern me are the IL-19 numbers. Most people had given Shimkus the edge there, but GOP polling only gives him a 4-point lead. With the GOP troubles in Illinois, Blagojevich's coattails in the Governor's race might give the Democrats a good chance at a win there.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

Holden must be holding close to 80% of the Bush voters in his old district that voted for him last time against very weak opposition. I have difficultly believing it will that way on election day, but I am reducing Gekeas' chances of winning from 55% to 52.5%. They started out at 65%, one of the biggest percentage changes on my spreadsheet. I moved Shimkus down from 60% to 55%. Shimkus wasn't even on my spreadsheet at the beginning because I don't think much of Phelps, and the district has a clear GOP lean. That is why I still have Beauprez at only a 49% chance of winning although he is apparently leading in the polls. The district has a slight Dem lean, and that influences where I think things will end up. Granted, though, the closer we get to election day though, the more reliable polls have to count, although they are so dependent on projected turnout that it is still dicey.

On the ballot, though, don't the federal offices come first?

I agree that the lopsided gubernatorial race is going to hurt Shimkus, but thought that the US Senate and US House races come first on the ballot. Please advise, many thanks!

This is bad news for GEKAS,,,I guess he over stayed in the congress.

CO is likely to go GOP...OWENS will carry the GOP in this race.
I put CD-CO 7 at 52% to the GOP.

IL race will be affected by the GOV race , so who knows what will happen in IL

I've been growing more and more concerned about Gekas. First off, he is no youngster (73 next April), and secondly, he has never had a serious contest in years. Holden ain't a leftist kook and currently holds a seat that should've gone to a GOPer named James Jones, III, when it was drawn in '92 (presumably Gekas would've bowed out to the younger Jones with the districts drawn together). Holden is obviously no dummy, realizing that he could win this seat despite a Dem disadvantage. Gekas is going to have to work the hardest he has ever had to in his life to retain this seat, and we have yet to see if he truly has it in him. Regardless, this is a seat we can ill-afford to lose, as if Holden wins it, he'll have it until the next redraw in 2012.

As for Shimkus-Phelps, it's obvious the latter has been closing, but I don't necessarily think the GOP meltdown in IL will be as bad as previously thought (though it may be bad enough). Probably a slim win for Shimkus, 52-48%.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Rep. Chip Pickering (R) had a solid 17-point lead over Rep. Ronnie Shows (D).

Pickering has done a very good job of campaigning...he recently started a very hard hitting ad on country radio stations straight up calling Shows a liberal who claims to be a conservative. The clear message is the southern whites to vote for new conservative party and not the old -and liberal- democratic party.

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