SurveyUSA Poll: Lucas (D) leads Davis (R) in KY-04

SurveyUSA ^ | 10/16/02 | N/A

[BlackRazor]

Kentucky CD # 4
10/16/2002

Lucas (D) 54%

Davis (R) 43%

Undecided/Other 3%

Data Collected
10/13/02 - 10/15/02

Geography
Kentucky CD # 4

Universe
625 Likely Voters

Margin of Error
4.0%

Client
WCPO-TV Cincinnati

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

This is the first public poll for the race in KY-04. I can't say I'm really surprised by the results. Lucas is portrayed as a fairly conservative Democrat in a district that voted for Bush, and Davis has had some highly publicized mis-steps over the past couple of weeks.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[Coop]

Hey, did you see that article in Roll Call today where the NRCC director thinks NH-1 and NV-3 (both key toss-up races) are basically in the GOP's bag?

[comebacknewt]

I think Lucas is one of the most conservative RATS in Congress -- not that I would ever vote for him.

[fieldmarshaldj]

We'd be better off trying to lure Lucas into switching parties. The irony is that the 4th is the most GOP district of the 6 and was gerrymandered by the KY legislature after the '90 census to corral all the Republicans in mid-north central part of the state into the one seat (didn't quite work, as we won everything else). Once Lucas goes, the seat will be ours again.

[BlackRazor]

Hey, did you see that article in Roll Call today where the NRCC director thinks NH-1 and NV-3 (both key toss-up races) are basically in the GOP's bag?

I think what you meant to say is that the GOP is "in like Flint" in NH-1 and NV-3.

[BlackRazor]

Seriously, though, I have both races leaning GOP. Herrera just cannot get away from the ethics scandals in NV-03. I haven't seen any recent independent polling, but I can't see Porter not having some sort of lead right now.

I'm less sure of NH-1. I know what the polls have said. But the ARG and UNH polls have had some bizarre numbers this cycle. I think it will be close.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I wonder how come he didn't mention AZ-1 (Renzi v Cordova) ? I think we can safely call that one, too, based solely on the Dems nominating the wrong candidate.

[Coop]

In like Flynt! :-) Yeah, I was a bit surprised to hear his comments. NV-3 and NH-1, from the polls I've seen, are both quite competitive. Though I do agree Herrera's created his own mess in Nevada.

Though to be accurate, I believe Mr. Schmidt said the races were trending the GOP's way; he didn't quite say they were in the bag.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'm more confident about AZ-1 than NH-1, BTW. All this talk about how liberal Clark is and no mention on how liberal Bradley is. I would think the latter is going to have a problem with the GOP rank and file...

[comebacknewt]

We all know how three weeks can be an eternity in politics. Let's just hope the trends stay in our favor.

I am growing slightly more optimistic as time passes.

[KQQL]

Lucas will win...
but it will be close.

[KQQL]

NV polls are out too....

[KQQL]

@

[Torie]

What were the missteps?

[BlackRazor]

What were the missteps?

Sorry, that was my mistake. It was Lucas who has had the recent missteps, not Davis. For some reason, I keep mixing up the candidates in this particular race. Maybe it's the bland two-syllable names both of them have. :)

If you're still interested in Lucas' missteps, his people have stolen signs, he indicated he might challenge Jim Bunning in 2004, and despite not being invited to President Bush's speech in Cincinnati (Davis was), he showed up anyway (InvitationGate, they're calling it).

Given that I had attributed the missteps to the wrong candidate, I guess I would have expected slightly closer numbers.

[comebacknewt]

If you're still interested in Lucas' missteps, his people have stolen signs, he indicated he might challenge Jim Bunning in 2004.

Lucas probably would have a very tough time winning the RAT primary. He is so conservative, I doubt the blacks in Louisville and Lexington would support him at all. You almost have to have their support if you are a RAT.

[KQQL]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Larry's crystal ball has been updated..
I disagree with his call about SD- CD for RAts, but I agree with his call about IL CD 19.
KELO poll is bias......I will take Zogby /and Mason Dixon any day:

Status of House races as of today.
Toss UP seats are: Gekas*,NM2*,SD*,IL19*,FL5,IN2
Gains for GOP in: OH+1,PA+2,FL+2,MI+2,TX+2,NV+1,CO+1,AZ+1
Losses for GOP in: MD-2,GA-2,OK-1,NY-I,IN-1,TN-1

Outcome for the GOP à 223 to 229 seats
* Toss up seats held by GOP.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Losses for GOP in: MD-2"

I believe strongly that we'll hold both of those seats, perhaps a better shot with Bentley than with Morella, and Georgia perhaps with a net loss of one, or perhaps no losses at all. Indiana I believe will stay at status quo with Chocola taking that seat. Might gain a 3rd seat in PA with Kanjorski's possible loss...

[Tennessean4Bush]

Why do you think the GOP will lose a seat in TN? Are you talking about the Lincoln Davis vs Janice Bowling race? Have you seen any polls on this one?