Mason-Dixon poll shows Graham up big (and Sanford up a little)

Republican Lindsey Graham continues to hold a strong lead over Democrat Alex Sanders in the race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond, a new Post and Courier-WCBD-TV News 2 poll shows. Graham, the state's 3rd District congressman, leads Sanders, the former College of Charleston president, by a 51-34 percent margin in the race to represent South Carolina in the Senate. The lead is nearly identical to June's margin, when Graham led Sanders by a margin of 52-36 percent. Since then, millions of dollars have been spent by both sides in the race, and more than $9 million will be spent by the time Election Day arrives Nov. 5. This week, Graham had a reported $2. 7 million cash on hand - more than three times as much as Sanders. Pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research said that while Sanders is better known around the state than he was five months ago, he still has not been able to expand his base of support in any direction. "The voters are getting to know who he is now, but it doesn't seem to be making that much of a difference," Coker said. "I don't see anything in thosenumbers to give the Democrats any hope of winning the Thurmond seat," he added. "Graham, barring some unforeseen mistake, will win that race." The results are based on telephone interviews with 625 voters statewide between Monday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon. Women made up 50 percent of the pool; minorities, 27 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning there is a 95 percent probability of the results being the "true" picture. The independent news media poll was taken in a race that has been fought over the candidates' differences on the death penalty, saving Social Security, policing corporate ethics and political allegiances. Graham has promoted himself as a supporter of President Bush while trying to paint Sanders as a vote for Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and the Democrats. Graham leads Sanders in all regions of the state, according to the poll, including in Sanders' two perceived bases of support, around Columbia, where he once served as a state lawmaker, and in Charleston, where he was president of the college for nine years.

Republican Mark Sanford appears to have taken the lead in South Carolina's race for governor.

With less than three weeks left in the race, Sanford, the former congressman from Charleston, holds a close 45-41 percent advantage over incumbent Democrat Jim Hodges, a statewide voter poll shows. About 14 percent are undecided, and Sanford's lead is within the poll's margin of error.

In two other key state races, Republican attorney general candidate Henry McMaster and GOP lieutenant governor hopeful Andre Bauer both hold commanding double-digit leads over their Democrat opponents. McMaster leads Steve Benjamin 49-32 percent, while Bauer leads Phil Leventis 43-28 percent.

If the trend continues, said pollster Brad Coker, Hodges and the Democrats could face being thrown out of office on Nov. 5 in much the same fashion they ejected Republican incumbent David Beasley four years ago.

That's because what happens in the top races goes a long way toward determining what happens on down the ballot, he said.

"Right now, it looks like the Republicans are in a position to win all the statewide races," Coker said Thursday. "Hodges is not as unpopular as Beasley," Coker added, "but he is a Democrat in a Republican state."

The results are based on telephone interviews with 625 voters surveyed statewide between Monday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Post and Courier and WCBD-TV News 2. Women made up 50 percent of the pool; minorities were 27 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning there is a 95 percent probability of the results being the "true" picture.

Although Hodges is within striking distance and the margin of error makes the race nearly dead even, Coker said the state's geography and the voters' familiarity with Hodges after four years in office don't bode well for his re-election.

"It looks close on paper, since the separation is only four points," Coker said. "But history shows that undecided voters drift toward the challenger."

Another strike against Hodges is that Sanford represented the coastal region as its 1st District U.S. Representative from 1994-2000, and he remains popular in the district that stretches from Charleston to Myrtle Beach, Coker said.

While Hodges did well on the coast four years ago, drawing 60 percent of the Lowcountry vote, Coker said "he's not going to get that this year against Sanford."

Sanford's strong areas are the traditional Republican bases around the coast and Upstate, while Hodges is strong around Columbia and the Pee Dee. That puts Hodges in a geographic vise - to win he must erode more of Sanford's Lowcountry and Greenville bases, or do a better job of getting his vote out, Coker said.

"It looks to me like this is setting up nicely for Sanford and the Republicans," Coker added.

So far, their race has been defined mainly over their views on education and government reform. Hodges has defended the progress the state has made in the past four years in terms of school improvements and higher test scores, along with touting the education lottery.

Sanford has been more critical of the state's education system, saying it has not delivered as it should. Sanford said he would push for cutting government regulations and waste and giving local school boards more freedom from the state.

Sanford trailed Hodges 44-42 percent when Mason-Dixon ran its last South Carolina governor poll in June.

The numbers also indicate the "negative" perception of both men has increased since June, which could reflect the steady stream of negative TV advertising. Hodges' unfavorable name identification has gone from 23 percent to 35 percent since June, while Sanford's has gone from 2 percent to 19 percent, the poll found.

In other races, McMaster is the former chairman of the state Republican Party, and Benjamin is the former director of the state's probation department.

In the lieutenant governor's race, both Bauer and Leventis are state senators from the Midlands.

In addition to these races, voters will pick candidates for several other offices this year, including a U.S. Senate seat, state treasurer, superintendent of education, agriculture commissioner, comptroller general, and all 124 seats in the state House of Representatives.

I know this post is big, but it's big, good news too (unless someone else posted it before I did!

51% to 34% seems to point to the fact that SC is going to go GOP this Nov. And the weakening of the dems in the gubernatorial race is also reassuring.

I predicted that both wins by Dems in '98 over incumbent GOP Governors in AL & SC were largely flukes based on the weaknesses of Govs. Fob James & David Beasley respectively, and that both Don Siegleman and Jim Hodges would be one-term Governors to be replaced with far-stronger Republicans (and same went with MS with Ronnie Musgrove who was running against the troubled outgoing GOP Governor). Looks like come January we'll be seeing Governors Bob Riley and Mark Sanford taking their rightful places in Montgomery and Columbia (followed with either likely party-switching DINO Amy Tuck or Haley Barbour defeating Musgrove next year).

Have some relatives in SC. Rat gov. was only voted in last time due to a crazy twist of fate surrounding the "video poker" issue. Lightning won't stike twice for the dems. Every lever for Graham will also pull for a rep. gov. Runaway total Rep. victory in SC at every level. Count on it!

I know this post is big, but it's big, good news too (unless someone else posted it before I did!

Yep! Right here: :)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/771408/posts

I don't know about that, because the seat Graham is running for is already a Republican seat. It's not like we'd be gaining a seat by a Graham win, just holding a seat.

But still, it's good news, because I want Graham to win. Just like I want Elizabeth Dole to hang on to Jesse's seat here in NC! Go, go, GO! Win, win, WIN!

His McCainism went away once Johnny Boy showed his true colors. Graham will win this November, and fellow former McCainiac Sanford will win a tight one with Hodges if the black vote (which carried Hodges last election) isn't as supportive, and if the GOP votes as one this time around. That is hard to accomplish due to the bad blood that still exists from the primary days. Old school GOP (Peeler, although he used to be a Dem) vs. New school GOP (Sanford). This summer I was a Sanford volunteer and most people I talked to are receptive to what he could bring to Columbia if elected.

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